weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Maxon on Ryan's station very dire wording this morning..and that guy is more anti hype than Ryan. He mentioned things like" something most of us have never seen" and he brought up 1938. Impressive He also mentioned possible evacuations along the shorelines on his fb page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I see that the NHC is going with the Euro instead of the GFS which as mentioned showed the extreame situation late last night..you gotta wonder which model will be the main player or NHC's poster boy model per say. So bottom line is that SNE won't take the big hit like the GFS showed in last night's late run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 with Sandy already starting to look less than 100% tropical - or on the verge of taking on some ET characteristics - i'm more confident that a S NJ landfall pt is not going to make much difference up here with respect to impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 6z GFS is coming in more W than 0z through 96hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 with Sandy already starting to look less than 100% tropical - or on the verge of taking on some ET characteristics - i'm more confident that a S NJ landfall pt is not going to make much difference up here with respect to impact. Yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 06z gfs , Sandy is a sick and twisted freak for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 6z gfs continues with doomsday scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like LF right into NYC at 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Remember what hm said here today or yesterday about watching for a significant bump east. Has there ever been a storm this strong land falling in late October or November? Not in the northeast. http://csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/# http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/sandy-the-superstorm/622903 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like LF right into NYC at 108. Although there have been some model swings N & S with the left hook scenario the NJ/NYC area seems to be the idea that keeps coming back into play. Not good in terms of number of people impacted by direct hit. Certainly spares much of interior NEw Englnd catastrophic damage though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Gotta ride it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Although there have been some model swings N & S with the left hook scenario the NJ/NYC area seems to be the idea that keeps coming back into play. Not good in terms of number of people impacted by direct hit. Certainly spares much of interior NEw Englnd catastrophic damage though. The 6z GFS has sustained 30-40 knot winds over the entire region at 105 HR. Hell I think it was at 99 it has close to 60-70 kt near Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow...the 6z GFS would be extremely damaging here...coastal flooding/river flooding/damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 00z euro ens is near ACY.... So it has ticked south a bit. Still that would be a serious hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Gotta ride it Wish I could. But, this 06z run is further west. Yet, we have nearly 4 days to go, so as was stated, many small things may cause some big adjustments (good or bad) from both a modeling and end-point scenarios. Seems like we've been tracking this thing forever! A marathon training for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC going more mid-atlantic still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Although there have been some model swings N & S with the left hook scenario the NJ/NYC area seems to be the idea that keeps coming back into play. Not good in terms of number of people impacted by direct hit. Certainly spares much of interior NEw Englnd catastrophic damage though. Unless you are looking at bad coastal flooding, no one is seeing "catastophis damage". Lots of tree damage/power outages over a wide area yes but no one is going to see cat 3 winds with this, even if the 940 mb model predictions are right (and they are likely too deep). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC def leaning like 80% OP Euro...their track is slightly south fo the EC ensembles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Tropopause Fold, yes on the ET tranz, wagons North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Even if the NHC M.A. track verified at projected speed that thing is piling water up the coast through multiple tide cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Gotta ride it Bus to ACY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This is getting tiring to say the least..but the NHC is siding with the Euro again...GFS is further north..LI NJ...the consesus is getting there I guess..but still not yet pegged down as we would like it to be...I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro has 60 knot gusts for all of CT and that's with a LF into Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Have to lean on the EURO's consistency. Then factor in the other models. You would get a consensus hit somewhere on the Jersey Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Next NHC update? Would they put any more weight to the Goofus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The GFS would be awesome here. Too bad the Euro won't friggin budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro has 60 knot gusts for all of CT and that's with a LF into Delmarva I don't see that. Euro depiction to me looks like a run of the mill Nor' Easter for most of us...maybe 30-40 knot gusts. South coast of CT into LI sound perhaps somewhat higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro has 60 knot gusts for all of CT and that's with a LF into Delmarva My EURO doesn't say quite that high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't see that. Euro depiction to me looks like a run of the mill Nor' Easter for most of us...maybe 30-40 knot gusts. South coast of CT into LI sound perhaps somewhat higher. Gibbs seems to think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't see that. Euro depiction to me looks like a run of the mill Nor' Easter for most of us...maybe 30-40 knot gusts. South coast of CT into LI sound perhaps somewhat higher. Chris Shabbott @cshabbott Even if #Sandy goes DELMARVA do not let guard down New Eng. Euro model landfall MD and still 50-60kt wind gust all of CT. Massive wind field Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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