earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wide hook solution that we were seeing from a few of it's ensembles..looks like Block Island/Montauk in the next few frames for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Just stepped out of the room for a minute, staying at my grandfathers side until he passes tonight... If anyone with my number can text me what the models are showing it'd be a nice distraction. Been a long night. Take care all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 948 mb off the SE tip of LI by 111 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Microbursts Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like the op GFS will be a devastating hurricane hit for SNE. Oh boy Ryan... I shouldn't come to NBC on Monday... hahaha I will get stuck guaranteed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like landfall right on Long Island at 117... 948 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What a run for SNE...landfall as a 947 at hour 114-117 (18z-21z Tuesday)...right into C/E LI and then moves west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wide hook solution that we were seeing from a few of it's ensembles..looks like Block Island/Montauk in the next few frames for sure. Yup Montauk 18z Tuesday. Seems slow to me and too far east off HSE. I would say, however, that the far west trend may come to an end tonight. May wind up focusing on a NJ/NYC/LI landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Goes SW from Long Island to NJ at 120.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Just seems to take forever on its wide swing and move back W/NW... late Tuesday landfall seems really late when you compare it to the other models and their respective model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like it stalls off of NJ for a while... still off the NJ coast at 129... still 958 MB at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Just stepped out of the room for a minute, staying at my grandfathers side until he passes tonight... If anyone with my number can text me what the models are showing it'd be a nice distraction. Been a long night. Take care all. chris M i'm VERY sorry to hear that. really awful if you want you can pm me your cell or fb it to me , otherwise i'm sure someone will hook you up with some distractions. sorry man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 We may have seen the most southwesterly solutions and now they edge a little more north again. It is moving fast than the NHC forecast now. Not sure what implications that has. Looks like the op GFS will be a devastating hurricane hit for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Microbursts Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Just stepped out of the room for a minute, staying at my grandfathers side until he passes tonight... If anyone with my number can text me what the models are showing it'd be a nice distraction. Been a long night. Take care all. Chris, I am SO sorry that you're going through a bad time... my heart and prayers go out to you and your family dude. The GFS is showing the eye slamming into the LI tip as a 956 mb monster at 00Z Wednesday 0ct 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Just stepped out of the room for a minute, staying at my grandfathers side until he passes tonight... If anyone with my number can text me what the models are showing it'd be a nice distraction. Been a long night. Take care all. Chris, I'm very sorry to learn this sad news. Your family and you are in my prayers and have my deepest sympathies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS swings the storm the furthest east initially. This allows the block to wedge in and slow the westward progress even though it happens eventually. Nogaps Euro maybe a full 24hrs faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This run is ridiculous. Makes first landfall on LI around 117 with pressure of 948... stalls off of NJ... hits LI/CT/RI for a 2nd landfall at 132 with pressure of 966 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't know how much of a difference it makes to be honest. I think the fact the synoptic setup favors at least a steady state if not strengthening by landfall is more important. I did see the NHC actually weakened then strengthened the storm. Unusual but agrees with guidance. That makes more sense you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This run is ridiculous. Makes first landfall on LI around 117 with pressure of 948... stalls off of NJ... hits LI/CT/RI for a 2nd landfall at 132 with pressure of 966 yes insanity for SNE there, especially since it just scapes South of MVY and block island at hr 111 then makes another pass 20 hrs later (weaker) but wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Is there a reason why the GFS holds Sandy in a holding pattern around NYC for almost 24 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 i would love to watch this storm from snow shoe wv, seems they are getting feet upon feet wether it goes into delmarva or scrapes south of cape cod into E Long island (per gfs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Is there a reason why the GFS holds Sandy in a holding pattern around NYC for almost 24 hrs? She's kinda blocked up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 FYI... last sub-960mb TC in southern New England or Long Island was 58 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Is there a reason why the GFS holds Sandy in a holding pattern around NYC for almost 24 hrs? Because the synoptic capture is further NE than the 18z run...its the same reason it stalled it near DC on the 18z run. It finally gets pulled NW and then eventually W and SW and stalls when it is completely stacked and captured by the PJ trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So Sandy makes the Perfect Storm loop just, eh, in Long Island Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Just to compare.... 00z NOGAPS goes into the Delaware Bay (S NJ) at 90 hrs... so someone is wrong here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 sandy looks like crap tonite IMO. http://www.ssd.noaa....ir-animated.gif this is best at nite , where as i beleive the shear is fooling people into thinking the wv loop shows a circular CDO, the shortwave infared shows, dry air working in on southern half of system and that the southern half has much less l convection, and you can see center best at nite with shortwave IR, (i mean recon is best, then microwave) but to see an animation in real time, i believe this shows the tale of a struggling sandy and shear is puttin a hurtin on her, latest recon found 971 , so significant weakening. when NHC says 80 knots (and this may be generous) it usually is , latest SFMR are rather unimpressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The GFS has close to hurricane force sustained on ACK. Nice 100 knot LLJ over a chunk of SNE as well. There's also two wind pulses...one from the NE initially and then another one from the south as the low retrogrades west. The one from the south hits S RI/SE CT pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
civj Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm lurking & understanding less than half of the discussion,but: In the previous thread, WilkesboroDude posted a graphic indicating that UKMET is the most accurate model 120 hours out. According to Wunderground, the UKMET has landfall in the Portland area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If the center is under those very cold tops on the IR, then Sandy is going to be at the latitude of the 12Z position by around 6Z. Perhaps faster means more curvature toward the NE later and allowing more escape before the trough can deepen enough to grab it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The GFS has close to hurricane force sustained on ACK. Nice 100 knot LLJ over a chunk of SNE as well. There's also two wind pulses...one from the NE initially and then another one from the south as the low retrogrades west. The one from the south hits S RI/SE CT pretty good. What do you think inland non elevation gusts to in MA/SNH....I'm guessing around 35-40 kts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.