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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

I haven't been on here much lately in light of the severe weather depression that has afflicted me after this past weekend's whiff, but the Friday-Saturday situation has me interested for WNE. Even if a more phased solution on the Euro verifies, this is looking like a classic upslope event on the backside. In fact, the Euro could mean a monster upslope event for ski areas in VT and some accumulating snows all the way down here into the Berks later Saturday after the cold front. A deep, moist vertically stacked low going just north of the US/Canada border is a perfect recipe for big time upslope. This is looking like the best upslope potential since the 1/13 event for many in WNE, and it may be better than that for some, especially in VT. Mt. Mansfield and Jay Peak could be measuring feet the way Boston measures inches. With the Great Lakes unfrozen, they may be able to help us out more than usual for this time of year as well. Closed lows, lingering moisture, CAA, and cross barrier flow are the main ingredients for significant upslope snow in WNE.

If a less phased solution verifies (a la GFS), we stand a good chance to get front ended and keep NNE snow. Heck, the 18Z GFS appears to be keeping the Berks north of I-90 mostly snow. Not sure I buy it yet, but it's interesting. Even the GFS gets WNE good on the backside with lingering deformation and upslope. Overall, a less phased solution is better for snow around here...pretty much the polar opposite of last weekend when we were all rooting for phasing. Although the Euro could mean some pain initially, I think many in ski country are going to be happy in the end, regardless of which solution verifies.

I was actually pretty pumped after getting home and seeing the 12z models. I could see us wrangling out accumulating snowfall one way or another. The east drift seems real. We'll see, Catching some snow right now so anything is possible.lol

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

A deep, moist vertically stacked low going just north of the US/Canada border is a perfect recipe for big time upslope. This is looking like the best upslope potential since the 1/13 event for many in WNE, and it may be better than that for some, especially in VT. Mt. Mansfield and Jay Peak could be measuring feet the way Boston measures inches.

LOL...nice. I've been liking the upslope potential with the bomb solution. Even GFS/NAM/GGEM would have some orographic response. I'm glad someone else is thinking this way or is at least interested in that aspect of the storm. The ECM solutions are crazy upslope parameters.

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

LOL...nice. I've been liking the upslope potential with the bomb solution. Even GFS/NAM/GGEM would have some orographic response. I'm glad someone else is thinking this way or is at least interested in that aspect of the storm. The ECM solutions are crazy upslope parameters.

The two people who actually get upslope in this forum can PM each other about it. Sweet!

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
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2cc7xt.jpg

I'm not sure there was that much snow here after that event. That map has me around 16-18" with 2K greater than 24". Although I was out of town that day, I seem to remember that storm producing a lot of garbage around here, especially on the west slope. The PSF METAR data archive on the Plymouth site for 1/18/10 confirms this. However, since it was so marginal, it could've been one of those things where areas just to my east had heavy snow. Funky storm.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure there was that much snow here after that event. That map has me around 16-18" with 2K greater than 24". Although I was out of town that day, I seem to remember that storm producing a lot of garbage around here, especially on the west slope. The PSF METAR data archive on the Plymouth site for 1/18/10 confirms this. However, since it was so marginal, it could've been one of those things where areas just to my east had heavy snow. Funky storm.

Those maps were always the worst.

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adk

adk

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Posted

LOL...nice. I've been liking the upslope potential with the bomb solution. Even GFS/NAM/GGEM would have some orographic response. I'm glad someone else is thinking this way or is at least interested in that aspect of the storm. The ECM solutions are crazy upslope parameters.

yea throw me into that mix. But I think you knew this. Look if the Euro verifies we're talking an intense 12 hours of very heavy upslope snow that will easily reach 12-14 inches above 2500 feet. Now if the GFS verifies (i'm working on 12z because the 18z has never ever once been right) verifies that period from 18z friday through 18z saturday as the low slides east under the h5 trough will also have a tremendous orographic response. We saw a similar pattern with the storm on MLK weekend. I named it "easy" on fis and it produced what...10-12 inches overnight at Stowe and up and down the green spine? I think for me I like two things for green mountain upslope snow. 1 is a big low stacked to the north pumping wet air into them from the northeast. 2 is a somewhat stacked low/occluded and detached low drifting through the greens. Both are in play here. It is going to snow in the Greens above 2500 feet, from Kmart to Jay this weekend.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

yea throw me into that mix. But I think you knew this. Look if the Euro verifies we're talking an intense 12 hours of very heavy upslope snow that will easily reach 12-14 inches above 2500 feet. Now if the GFS verifies (i'm working on 12z because the 18z has never ever once been right) verifies that period from 18z friday through 18z saturday as the low slides east under the h5 trough will also have a tremendous orographic response. We saw a similar pattern with the storm on MLK weekend. I named it "easy" on fis and it produced what...10-12 inches overnight at Stowe and up and down the green spine? I think for me I like two things for green mountain upslope snow. 1 is a big low stacked to the north pumping wet air into them from the northeast. 2 is a somewhat stacked low/occluded and detached low drifting through the greens. Both are in play here. It is going to snow in the Greens above 2500 feet, from Kmart to Jay this weekend.

Looks like a safe bet to me. I'm already working my schedule around this likely outcome. I plan on soaking up every minute skiiing I can because one day the season here will end and all I'll be left with is the Torch Twins of CT posting about how the 80's are going to kill everyone.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Posted

Yes I'm sorry...just like .2% get lake effect or ocean effect...but I thought this thread was on aspects of the EURO bomb storm.

We should only discuss weather events that affect the majority. Mitch take note.

yea throw me into that mix. But I think you knew this. Look if the Euro verifies we're talking an intense 12 hours of very heavy upslope snow that will easily reach 12-14 inches above 2500 feet. Now if the GFS verifies (i'm working on 12z because the 18z has never ever once been right) verifies that period from 18z friday through 18z saturday as the low slides east under the h5 trough will also have a tremendous orographic response. We saw a similar pattern with the storm on MLK weekend. I named it "easy" on fis and it produced what...10-12 inches overnight at Stowe and up and down the green spine? I think for me I like two things for green mountain upslope snow. 1 is a big low stacked to the north pumping wet air into them from the northeast. 2 is a somewhat stacked low/occluded and detached low drifting through the greens. Both are in play here. It is going to snow in the Greens above 2500 feet, from Kmart to Jay this weekend.

Yes I'm sorry...just like .2% get lake effect or ocean effect...but I thought this thread was on aspects of the EURO bomb storm.

We should only discuss weather events that affect the majority. Mitch take note.

The setup looks pretty good, good luck fellas. Selfishly hoping you guys stay on the cold side all of March!

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure there was that much snow here after that event. That map has me around 16-18" with 2K greater than 24". Although I was out of town that day, I seem to remember that storm producing a lot of garbage around here, especially on the west slope. The PSF METAR data archive on the Plymouth site for 1/18/10 confirms this. However, since it was so marginal, it could've been one of those things where areas just to my east had heavy snow. Funky storm.

The map probably over estimates the snow depth a bit because we had such a high water content in the snow...but I had something like 12-15" on the ground after the event (there was still snow OTG from the Jan 1-3 storm and another minor event prior to this) so it wasn't grossly off, probably about 30% too high...that map wasn't just depicting the actual event snowfall. But I do notice it over estimates snow depth in high water content snow packs.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Posted

yea throw me into that mix. But I think you knew this. Look if the Euro verifies we're talking an intense 12 hours of very heavy upslope snow that will easily reach 12-14 inches above 2500 feet.

Yeah...we are on the same page here. I noticed some of the local mets have been mentioning it and BTV too. The stacked lows are critical for getting that deep moisture feed for the monster events of like 30"/24 hours (March 4, 2006 it snowed like 2.5 feet overnight with cyclonic moisture) but even the less strong solutions like GFS with lingering moisture and weak deformation with upslope flow could be solid.

As you and I have discussed, watch that H85 -10C isotherm as that is the snow growth indicator.

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klw

klw

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Posted

LOL...nice. I've been liking the upslope potential with the bomb solution. Even GFS/NAM/GGEM would have some orographic response. I'm glad someone else is thinking this way or is at least interested in that aspect of the storm. The ECM solutions are crazy upslope parameters.

Sadly the GFS has given me my favorite clown map so far in 2012.

post-1533-0-22410800-1329874109.gif

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Holy crap at the NAM/GFS forecast of the 500mb winds on Friday...I'm sure this has been touched upon but 135-145 knots at 500mb...that is ABSURD and is a key signal that this will be one intense system with incredibly dynamics. If we can get that sfc low to track west enough to get the solid warm sector into parts of the region we could see a nasty squall line come close to SE portions of SNE.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Holy crap at the NAM/GFS forecast of the 500mb winds on Friday...I'm sure this has been touched upon but 135-145 knots at 500mb...that is ABSURD and is a key signal that this will be one intense system with incredibly dynamics. If we can get that sfc low to track west enough to get the solid warm sector into parts of the region we could see a nasty squall line come close to SE portions of SNE.

:weenie:

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