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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah I agree. That's why I think it makes sense to go with a conservative solution at this point. A 1-3 kind of deal less than half of what the NAM shows, less than the GFS, and about on par with the Euro.

There are negatives when you start to look closely

Hopefully someone other than MPM and Pete can post pics. No offense to them, but some local flavor would be nice.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Even though this area might not see much of anything, I like these events from a learning standpoint. Kind of cool to see how it plays out. I'm not all that bullish right now, but I can see how this could bust in the positive too.

I'd love to see this make it into boston. I want that trace of snow record to fall by the wayside

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Nice, Tip. Welcome back to the ballz to the wallz club. Instead of noose posts, lets get the "what can happen to produce the most exciting solution possible" posts back!

yes till it is apparent ayer is too far E for the Good WAA snows (v. 33F and lt. non accumulating snow) and too far south for the secondary precip's wintry qpf

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mattb65

mattb65

Posted
Posted

I would too, but I don't have much hope for more than a coating to half inch by my area or Logan. The NAM certainly would be nice..hell even the SREFs.

I think the key for our area to get closer to the 1-2" is if it really comes in as a heavy burst because after looking at soundings, we may lose some of the initial bit of precip to either rain or melting before things wetbulb down to 32-33. If it comes in like a wall like the HRRR, NAM and SREF show, I think we'll be in business for a quick inch or two of snow.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

The tulips and daffodils also shouldn't be popping up all over the place in my neighborhood, but such is the winter of 2012-2013 lol.

Auuggghhh!! Next winter, too?

GYX has the foothills for 4-7". They tend to like that region when forecasting snowfall, but lately (other than last April 1) it's not happened that way.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

PB is going low.post-5349-0-84377700-1330035138.jpg

i think that's accurate for EMA

they kinda just pay no attention to connecticut even thou they include it on their maps

most all models give WCT HFD at least an inch or two by the time commute is over.

either way any way you look at it now ..HFD has a clearly greater shot than BOS of accumulating snow. i'm not sure that this has been stated clearly or am i out to lunch

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

this must be killing you right now. i know that every last ounce of you is dying just to throw your cards down and go all in for some accumulating snow tonight...but you are trying so so hard to be rationale and not bet on this round.

c'mon...one more time won't hurt. you could win the whole pot.

I'd love for it to snow..I just think the Euro is going to be right..and if it is I see little if any..in a winter of no snow..why go against the pattern?

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I'd love for it to snow..I just think the Euro is going to be right..and if it is I see little if any..in a winter of no snow..why go against the pattern?

There had never been a big snowstorm in October either. Persistence isn't a reasonable way to forecast when you're inside 18 hours.

The Euro is a valid concern and that's why many of us are conservative and not throwing out ballsier SWFE totals.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

There had never been a big snowstorm in October either. Persistence isn't a reasonable way to forecast when you're inside 18 hours.

The Euro is a valid concern and that's why many of us are conservative and not throwing out ballsier SWFE totals.

ryan wouldn't you say there is alot more caution flags for BOS than HFD

i mean the lift in EMA looks like crap v. HFD on all the models cept the nam doesn't it? (excluding 12z gfs for 18z )

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