Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

[NorEastermass128]

I think rt 2 northward would be all snow on the GFs, lol. What an abortion of model runs we've seen.

One of these storms has to go our way at some point I would think.

[CoastalWx]

I think rt 2 northward would be all snow on the GFs, lol. What an abortion of model runs we've seen.

There has been a trend, but you have to wonder about the GFS.

[CoastalWx]

Remember the days, when this used to happen?

[ORH_wxman]

Remember the days, when this used to happen?

Yeah trending lakes cutters into front end thumps with secondary redevelopment...12/16/07...hell even 2/1/11 last winter.

If the Euro doesn't phase the southern stream, it could end up a lot more wintry...Euro does have some cold over the region at d3 before the bomb cuts through...its not impressive cold, but cold enough for snow if it trended into a northern stream system.

I'm not holding out much hope though.

[powderfreak]

I think rt 2 northward would be all snow on the GFs, lol. What an abortion of model runs we've seen.

LOL and SNE is back in the game, when Will starts posting.

[Typhoon Tip]

It's all made possible due to the utter lack of phasing on the GFS...

It's hard man:

1) no one that knows anything at all about Meteorology would argue that progressivity isn't the dominating flow characteristic; from that, can't we infer that the more progressive leaning solutions deserve a nod?

2) this last lower MA storm, the one that was supposed to save our winter per the GFS persistently hammered solution ... failed, leaving a very bad taste in those same person's minds about the usefulness of the GFS ...

3) at just 84 hours from the Euro's biggest impact of the inland rainy winder - that is squarely inside it's wheel house of fame. However, as Phil and I discussed mid winter, the Euro blew big time on a couple of events this season (no I can't recall the dates...) one as close in as 36 hours. So the model can at time poop the bed in short terms.

(1 + 2 + 3)/3 =

[CoastalWx]

Yeah trending lakes cutters into front end thumps with secondary redevelopment...12/16/07...hell even 2/1/11 last winter.

If the Euro doesn't phase the southern stream, it could end up a lot more wintry...Euro does have some cold over the region at d3 before the bomb cuts through...its not impressive cold, but cold enough for snow if it trended into a northern stream system.

I'm not holding out much hope though.

Yeah the euro looked icy potentially for NNE. I still could see the euro going more east, but I'm not sure it would be enough to benefit SNE.

[CoastalWx]

It's all made possible due to the utter lack of phasing on the GFS...

It's hard man:

1) no one that knows anything at all about Meteorology would argue that progressivity isn't the dominating flow characteristic; from that, can't we infer that the more progressive leaning solutions deserve a nod?

2) this last lower MA storm, the one that was supposed to save our winter per the GFS persistently hammered solution ... failed, leaving a very bad taste in those same person's minds about the usefulness of the GFS ...

3) at just 84 hours from the Euro's biggest impact of the inland rainy winder - that is squarely inside it's wheel house of fame. However, as Phil and I discussed mid winter, the Euro blew big time on a couple of events this season (no I can't recall the dates...) one as close in as 36 hours. So the model can at time poop the bed in short terms.

(1 + 2 + 3)/3 =

Both models will probably come towards each other, in which SNE still sees a mundane solution.

[powderfreak]

Warning criteria snows and solid period of upslope enhancement across a large portion of VT on the 18z GFS. Nice.

[CoastalWx]

That's usually what happens when models are far apart. Sometimes one set will move closer to the other, but we are already seeing the euro nudge east a bit.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah trending lakes cutters into front end thumps with secondary redevelopment...12/16/07...hell even 2/1/11 last winter.

If the Euro doesn't phase the southern stream, it could end up a lot more wintry...Euro does have some cold over the region at d3 before the bomb cuts through...its not impressive cold, but cold enough for snow if it trended into a northern stream system.

I'm not holding out much hope though.

Heh, beat me too it by a few moments ... BUT hmmmm Muah hahaha. there's another option on the table - but if feels like mentioning a no hitter in the 6th inning for this season ... and that is the Euro succeeds in more phasing, but but shifts just off shore. nice.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah the euro looked icy potentially for NNE. I still could see the euro going more east, but I'm not sure it would be enough to benefit SNE.

Yeah I don't imagine the Euro being wrong enough to help us out...it might be wrong enough to get NNE more snow...and maybe 1-2 hours of snow/sleet on the front end here before a 34F rainstorm...yippee.

[Typhoon Tip]

Both models will probably come towards each other, in which SNE still sees a mundane solution at least excuse imaginable.

Atta boy! that's the spirit - me likey

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I don't imagine the Euro being wrong enough to help us out...it might be wrong enough to get NNE more snow...and maybe 1-2 hours of snow/sleet on the front end here before a 34F rainstorm...yippee.

LOL, maybe it will shut up the cries for best spring ever part 2 for a day or so.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Just a hunch but I think the Euro is going to fail. It's due for one, been on a roll. Just doesn't fit the winter to have a low wrapped up even like today. Sheared POS's to the SE are the way to go.

[Typhoon Tip]

i posted this, this morning ...not sure anyone saw... But I still believe that a good deal why the GFS is so less phased is because it's N stream S/W coming off the Pac is not as intense as the Euros - still isn't. The Euro's digs more entering the MV and that's where the differences really get rolling...

Also, don't the heights over the SE appear too high to allow a stem-wound low on the coast? that's almost a 101 factor ... that goes against the Euro.

Oy vay!

[dryslot]

This pattern has clearly got to a lot of people..

[dendrite]

Warning criteria snows and solid period of upslope enhancement across a large portion of VT on the 18z GFS. Nice.

All snow on soundings here too. Amerigarbage FTW.

[dryslot]

One of these scenarios is going to be very wrong

[CoastalWx]

The GFS is a nice dump for nrn ORH county. WTF.

[ORH_wxman]

i posted this, this morning ...not sure anyone saw... But I still believe that a good deal why the GFS is so less phased is because it's N stream S/W coming off the Pac is not as intense as the Euros - still isn't. The Euro's digs more entering the MV and that's where the differences really get rolling...

Also, don't the heights over the SE appear too high to allow a stem-wound low on the coast? that's almost a 101 factor ... that goes against the Euro.

Oy vay!

Unfortunately it seems like these factors are kind of supporting the least interesting scenario...a predominantly northern stream system that still tracks to far NW to really give much winter precip to most outside of far NNE...hopefully it keeps coming in colder to make it more interesting but I can def see a GFS/Euro compromise.

But hey, I guess at this point getting a half inch of rain would be a win...can't even buy qpf lately nevermind winter wx.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

All snow on soundings here too. Amerigarbage FTW.

I'm thinking mostly snow for CNH and NNH...remains to be seen to the south.

[Typhoon Tip]

All snow on soundings here too. Amerigarbage FTW.

Ah haha...

G F S = "G"ood "F"or "S"hit model.

E C M W F = "E"stimating "C"ontinuous "M"eans/"W"ays to "F"* us

Damned if you do, damned if youd don't

[ORH_wxman]

It has our Feb 29-Mar 1 system too...a bit too far south this run but I'm feeling good...we got 8 days to trend it north.

[Typhoon Tip]

Unfortunately it seems like these factors are kind of supporting the least interesting scenario...a predominantly northern stream system that still tracks to far NW to really give much winter precip to most outside of far NNE...hopefully it keeps coming in colder to make it more interesting but I can def see a GFS/Euro compromise.

But hey, I guess at this point getting a half inch of rain would be a win...can't even buy qpf lately nevermind winter wx.

Exactly! holy crap.

and yes, we should all maintain vigil in wait for how this is just another dose of torture

[CoastalWx]

It has our Feb 29-Mar 1 system too...a bit too far south this run but I'm feeling good...we got 8 days to trend it north.

Where's Ray to tell us not to be objective.

I know some feel beaten down by this winter, but all we are saying is that the signal has been there. Maybe this time, something can happen.

[Ginx snewx]

LOL, maybe it will shut up the cries for best spring ever part 2 for a day or so.

Today we hiked the Quinebaug valley trail, call me crazy but today had a different feel to it, not that April smell, feel like it has been. IDK just seemed different, maybe we get a break.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Both models will probably come towards each other, in which SNE still sees a mundane solution.

[ORH_wxman]

Where's Ray to tell us not to be objective.

I know some feel beaten down by this winter, but all we are saying is that the signal has been there. Maybe this time, something can happen.

Eh, the OP Euro was out to sea too...probably ought to punt it.

All kidding aside, who knows...at least the period looks to be getting more active as advertised. Maybe we can trend this into a 3-4 hour thump of snow on Friday. Looks like the Feb 27 event might be a cutter though ensembles suggested some colder solutions as well, so I guess we'll see.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 of the 12 GFS members at 12z had phasing ...which means 9 did not of course. But of those, each provides a different result..

so no help there.