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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

maybe not at this time of year... The water is about as cold as it's going to get and with warm air riding over top that sets up a very steep llv inversion - tough to mix the wind down through that slab.

yeah southerly flow tends to suck more often than not. sometimes we see a wind max over interior SE MA in that kind of set-up as those places are a bit further removed from the cool SSTs.

we'd need a good squall line or just some really heavy precip to help tap some of that wind in the warm sector.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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looks like i'll be heading to alb mar 10 :)

no really what does this look like for stowe,vt this fri nite to mon day nite period

is this a potential rainer.....ice maker for them . or does this look less likely ....trying to make plans to use ski package rental and figuring out oddz.

The mountain would be 3-6" on GFS, NAM, and GGEM... I have no idea where the ECM went or what it looks like. Can't even really tell by reading the thread.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
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There was a storm last year where 850 winds were 100+ knots but winds ended up near 55 in gusts. This year with SSTs 5-6 degrees higher and warmer air maybe less of an inversion? Phil mobile Kestrel time?

if it were to play out like that, i'd think most of the wind stays aloft. that anomalous jet also transports anomalous low-level warmth just off the deck...14 or 15C at 925 mb in SE areas...you're nearing 60F there. fairly strong inversion as usual. maybe not as pronounced as we might normally see given slightly milder SSTs vs climo but i wouldn't expect too much wihtout some convection helping out (1/10 times that seems to work).

if the jet is far enough west, might be the kind of event where the top of blue hill is really howling with just that slight elevation helping them out but most of the rest of the region is nothing special.

pgf alone might be enough to warrant wind advisory or something i suppose.

but i would think backside would be more interesting still. euro continues to have a good wind signal on saturday. some good CAA over a relatively torched immediate surface so probably some good mixing in that set-up.

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adk

adk

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Posted

PF- you are speaking only for friday am right? If the 12z GFS verifies and that somewhat stacked low passes over Stowe that's going to leave much more than 3-6. That's what "Easy" did over MLK weekend it snowed like a foot overnight. If the Euro verifies who cares what falls friday am as the upslope event would be absurd saturday.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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The GGEM is by far the coldest with this... snowing pretty much over the entire state of NH.

The reason it breaks that way is because this 12z run did something completely different than it's 00z run; it splits the flow entirely leaving no phase and everything northern stream - more in line with the GFS. Interesitng that a higher res model like the GGEM collapsed toward the model type with less data.

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dendrite

dendrite

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The reason it breaks that way is because this 12z run did something completely different than it's 00z run; it splits the flow entirely leaving no phase and everything northern stream - more in line with the GFS. Interesitng that a higher res model like the GGEM collapsed toward the model type with less data.

The GFS has higher resolution than the GGEM.
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