Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 As much as I want to sugar coat is...I can't....gfs kinda sucked. Didn't like the shift in the lp track. That was the feature that was keeping me optimistic. All models had it in the same place even with variation in the precip shield. gfs definitely moved it s&w enough to scare the fringe out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ddweatherman is such a fricken weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ddweatherman is such a fricken weenie The best was when Scott compared him to CTblizz and snowNH . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ddweatherman is such a fricken weenie posting that the gfs appears error-laden in a model thread full of mets is an error-laden decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 According to Coastal's post in the model thread we are screwed, he says he does not see more than a 30 mile jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The Ukie sucked balls again at 12Z. How much QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If the euro sucks I'm going to have a hard time deciding what to eat for lunch. Zanax, prozac, or wellbutrin? hmmm....decisions decisions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks a little error laden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 How much QPF? .25 for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Alright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 According to Coastal's post in the model thread we are screwed, he says he does not see more than a 30 mile jog. im not sure i'd believe that.. tho i doubt it will be huge at this pt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 .25 for DC. T Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 im not sure i'd believe that.. tho i doubt it will be huge at this pt Well Baroclinic does not seem to agree with him and outside of Wes i trust him the most, so i will wait to head to the 14th st bridge until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 T Thanks Thats what we probably end up with in Baltimore . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Alright Just playing around man...we're all weenies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just playing around man...we're all weenies here. Awww did you hurt his feelings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Thats what we probably end up with in Baltimore . My guess in Baltimore mostly cloudy with a flurry or two at this point. Yeah call me a weenie, but this is yet another suckerpunch from winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 im not sure i'd believe that.. tho i doubt it will be huge at this pt I said I think we are within a solution...maybe 30-50 mile difference on either side of the 12z solutions right now. Just to be clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The last time there were not errors on the modeling was leading up to Feb. 10, 2010. Everything after that..."error laden". For two years now. I am going to have dd write a stern letter entitled "Error Laden Models... Fix Them to Give Me Snow" to send to dtk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I said I think we are within a solution...maybe 30-50 mile difference on either side of the 12z solutions right now. Just to be clear. So basically our last hope is the Euro, if it does not come north you are saying we are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I guess the weenie suicides have commended. I still think this is within the drifting back and forth of the models in general. A north OR south shift are not out of the question by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 perfect time for Midlo's .gif of the soccer coach cheering thinking they scored only to have it not really happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So basically our last hope is the Euro, if it does not come north you are saying we are screwed. Well never say never in this business, but if it slides south, I wouldn't be happy..shall we say. FWIW, it probably won't change all that much, but I know that means little who are on the edge and it shifts like 30 miles or so. These things sometimes surprise, so you'll just have to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 and i'm calling it now that the Euro has initialized wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Well never say never in this business, but if it slides south, I wouldn't be happy..shall we say. FWIW, it probably won't change all that much, but I know that means little who are on the edge and it shifts like 30 miles or so. These things sometimes surprise, so you'll just have to watch. Thanks Scott your input is great and makes for excellent discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Awww did you hurt his feelings? Let me clarify. We are all weenies here. Some more so than others though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 i think dc is pretty much a lock for 1-2"... probably more but a lock for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So...it's the SREFs/NAM/GGEM/RGEM vs. GFS/Euro/Ukie? It's like hoping the O's are going to sweep the Yankees in a 4 game series... Gotta convince the Euro to change teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Thanks Scott your input is great and makes for excellent discussions. Thanks Raven. There are definitely some question marks, so you really can't say much until maybe later today. If the euro holds serve, then maybe you can get that subtle shift north on guidance later tonight or tomorrow, but that isn't a lock. These subtle shifts north are based on experience with how some of these things behave..and it relates back to some physics, but if the nrn stream is too strong with confluence, it means little. When you have such a sharp QPF gradient, and a system trying to come north...a small change in a s/w wave soemtimes has a big outcome, because the difference in distance between the haves and have nots, is small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Can we talk about the GGEM in here? It looks north. NAM/GGEM ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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