Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 is it still a weak low that cranks well north of us? it's pretty piddly all around even to the north tho could be because it's a mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 it's pretty piddly all around even to the north tho could be because it's a mean Would a mean be more inclined to be faster with features since it generally tends to smooth out features instead of amplifying them (overall)? Or am I just off with my interpretation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 18z gfs at least through my eyes no good for our 24/25 event, its got that stupid low in the GL and isn't getting the coastal low pressure low enough, it doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 No, 18z is all rain for Xmas eve and day. But it still has a significantly different solution to the Euro. I suspect the 18z is still going to have a storm on the 26th-27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 No, 18z is all rain for Xmas eve and day. But it still has a significantly different solution to the Euro. I suspect the 18z is still going to have a storm on the 26th-27th. My guess is that the following wave will be suppressed but that's a wag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Going to keep my eye on this. We are scheduled to be traveling down 81 on the 26th. to Georgia. I would prefer it to hold off till the 27th if it is to do anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Not sure I buy the GFS, what are the red taggers thoughts on two storms, 24/25 and 27? Euro says no, most models also agree I think, but GFS has shown this for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 My guess is that the following wave will be suppressed but that's a wag Not this time. Still a bit far offshore but a decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Not this time. Still a bit far offshore but a decent snow. Yeah not bad, surface is warm though, probably because the low isnt that strong. Its hard to believe with that we wouldn't see any snow though, I'll say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Not sure I buy the GFS, what are the red taggers thoughts on two storms, 24/25 and 27? Euro says no, most models also agree I think, but GFS has shown this for days. don't get too excited verbatim, it's awfully warm on the surface (aaaaagain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 don't get too excited verbatim, it's awfully warm on the surface (aaaaagain) Yeah I saw that, too warm for snow, its something to watch at least, but our chances are straight up just not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 don't get too excited verbatim, it's awfully warm on the surface (aaaaagain) Yep, it is awful warm at the surface which is sort of believable with the low over the great lakes. It reminds me of some of the storms during the 1997-1998 season. Good tracks with no cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 don't get too excited verbatim, it's awfully warm on the surface (aaaaagain) The model is not taking into account the deep snowcover up north from the NE xmas miracle storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The model is not taking into account the deep snowcover up north from the NE xmas miracle storm. or the vorticity added by santa's sleigh whizzing by at warp speed. Lorenz's Butterfly effect is nothin compared to the Santa sleigh effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 or the vorticity added by santa's sleigh whizzing by at warp speed. Lorenz's Butterfly effect is nothin compared to the Santa sleigh effect. ah ha! you're saying there is a chance. We like optimistic Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 or the vorticity added by santa's sleigh whizzing by at warp speed. Lorenz's Butterfly effect is nothin compared to the Santa sleigh effect. Let's get serious, those 850's are mighty cold. Accumulations would suffer but the p-type would be predominantly snow if somehow the 18z GFS verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I see no reason to uncancel winter at the present time. 18z GFS tries to push cold air in from the SW on Dec 26th ahead of the storm which is a big Red flag, I'd say KSYR has a 30% chance of being all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Bet any system developing on Monday ends up north and west of where it's showing now. Seems to be the trend every time. I could be completely out to lunch on that, but I'd not want to be sitting a few miles west of that 850 line. Doesn't even look that cold at the surface well west of that line. Of course, I thought the storm last Christmas just had to come west and north, but it never did. Seems like this year is a different animal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Let's see if the GFS/Euro model theory is correct... GFS picks up on a storm about a week out... loses it around day 5-6 while the Euro picks it up. GFS comes back around day 4 with the storm, with both the GFS and Euro start to improve until day 2 until we get either a busted storm or a locked in snow event (busted wins 3:1 in DC/E of 95 and 2:1 for the rest of the lower elevations). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 18z GFS has surface temps in the 30s. With those 850s that's snow I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Nice to have something to track. Terrible pattern and thread the needle and all that, but I have seen it snow a little in bad patterns so these storms are worth tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 18z GFS has surface temps in the 30s. With those 850s that's snow I'd say. Well at least until the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 rain, maybe a mix at BWI here are the soundings for 168, 171 and 174 hrs respectively at 900mb and below; you just couldn't write this cr@p even if you hated snow with a passion 1003. 69. 4.1 3.3 334.8 0.9 1000. 93. 3.9 2.9 339.2 1.0 975. 299. 2.4 1.5 326.3 1.3 950. 509. 1.8 0.2 286.5 1.5 925. 724. 1.2 -0.7 260.8 3.0 900. 944. -0.0 -1.7 252.0 4.5 1001. 69. 2.7 2.5 4.5 2.2 1000. 74. 3.5 2.8 4.9 2.8 975. 279. 2.4 1.4 5.4 3.5 950. 489. 1.5 -0.1 351.9 3.5 925. 703. 0.6 -0.7 325.8 3.6 900. 923. -0.7 -1.6 306.4 4.2 1001. 69. 1.3 0.9 349.0 2.5 1000. 76. 2.7 1.6 348.9 3.4 975. 281. 2.4 0.5 352.3 5.0 950. 490. 1.4 -1.0 342.6 5.9 925. 705. 0.0 -1.9 331.4 7.1 900. 924. -1.5 -3.0 322.5 8.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Yeah, that's a bit warm. Well, I'm going to ignore those kind of details at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 It's gonna rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Yeah, that's a bit warm. Well, I'm going to ignore those kind of details at this stage. honestly, I would do the same, but it does pretty much sum up the problem we've had with every storm this year (at BWI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 honestly, I would do the same, but it does pretty much sum up the problem we've had with every storm this year (at BWI) Indeed...well, I'll trade some Euro snow/rain mix on Christmas for a GFS snow/rain mix on Boxing Day any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 It's gonna rain in CT Sorry for you. Hope it doesn't ruin your Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Sorry for you. Hope it doesn't ruin your Christmas already is he'll be away from misfit, snow island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 It's gonna rain This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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