Mr Torchey Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Looks like the good Reverend might be driving this instead of the bus this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 December 1990 keeps showing up in the analogs a lot recently for GEFS and GGEM ensembles. What a terrible month that was. I posted in NYC forum the other day how the 12/28/90 overruning snow event was quite possibly the worst pattern I have ever seen NYC measure 6 inches of snow from, a massive SE ridge with a raging +NAO and AO. I'm not sure how New England did in that event, overall it was a decent winter snow wise down this way, we averaged near normal with an event on 1/11/91 and 2/26/91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Not to get OT, but have you done any stratospheric research with Koermer yet? I actually talked to him about it in October, and he said that he's actually working on retiring soon so he didn't want to start anything new. I'm working with Aviles on tropical forcing stuff and subseasonal variation now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I can't recall any good snowstorms that winter. I checked and only 31" fell in 90-91 in Saugerties...below ALB. Perhaps it was better here. 90-91 was a big dud where I lived in Bristol CT. I was a senior in high school so I remember it very well. The first and only sig snow storm that year was a seven inch snow fall in very late December swfe. I want to say we finished that year with just over two feet for the entire winter. All the other events I believe were under three inches. A sig snow for me has always been at least three inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Judging by the fact that I only got 31" in the Mid Hudson Valley and ALB only got 29" ...it sounds like any storms went out to sea.... I posted in NYC forum the other day how the 12/28/90 overruning snow event was quite possibly the worst pattern I have ever seen NYC measure 6 inches of snow from, a massive SE ridge with a raging +NAO and AO. I'm not sure how New England did in that event, overall it was a decent winter snow wise down this way, we averaged near normal with an event on 1/11/91 and 2/26/91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The term i like to use for the pattern is It Blows.. "It blows where it wants to blow" I enjoyed the temps in the 40s today and even though it's still above normal, at least it's not 60 and I won't feel warm outside this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 You know its bad when temperatures in Maine were warmer than south Florida this morning.... Burlington to Boston and points NE in NH and ME was the warmest spot in the country this morning. South Texas and the Gulf Coast has nothing on us up here in New England, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 wow...this is pretty remarkable: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 This is impressive. From head to cold...just cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 wow...this is pretty remarkable: The ECMWF is an impressive model... the GFS, not so much, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 You know its bad when temperatures in Maine were warmer than south Florida this morning.... Burlington to Boston and points NE in NH and ME was the warmest spot in the country this morning. South Texas and the Gulf Coast has nothing on us up here in New England, lol. A picture is worth how many words? Tip, care to chime in? Tragic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 wow...this is pretty remarkable: Phil, is that from the EMC sight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Phil, is that from the EMC sight? yeah...here's the links: vs. euro: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/animatey/hpc5n_animatee.html vs. ukmet: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/animatey/hpc5n_animatek.html vs. cmc: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/animatey/hpc5n_animatem.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 you should probably take a few days off from the board. Despite some terrible analog dates centered around Dec 10th...there are snow chances. Even Dec 1990 had one right after Christmas and one of the analog dates is Xmas 1990. I went through the analog dates on CPC for Dec 10 next weekend and looked at BOS snowfall within 5 days of those dates and here is what I came up with: 12/21/70....18.6" 12/1/04......Trace 12/25/90....1.2" (a lot more interior) 12/19/92....Trace 12/15/71....3.7" 12/13/75....3.0" (over 15" more a few days later) 12/28/67....14.7" 12/24/04....7.2" 12/16/90....Trace This suggests that this pattern despite overall being far from very cold still has a pretty decent shot to produce some type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 This is impressive. From head to cold...just cold. Where'd you get that from? That's a nice chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I actually talked to him about it in October, and he said that he's actually working on retiring soon so he didn't want to start anything new. I'm working with Aviles on tropical forcing stuff and subseasonal variation now I figured that time would be coming soon for him. He did quite a bit of stratospheric work back in the days when you took notes with a chisel into bedrock. I wonder who will take over doing dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Despite some terrible analog dates centered around Dec 10th...there are snow chances. Even Dec 1990 had one right after Christmas and one of the analog dates is Xmas 1990. I went through the analog dates on CPC for Dec 10 next weekend and looked at BOS snowfall within 5 days of those dates and here is what I came up with: 12/21/70....18.6" 12/1/04......Trace 12/25/90....1.2" (a lot more interior) 12/19/92....Trace 12/15/71....3.7" 12/13/75....3.0" (over 15" more a few days later) 12/28/67....14.7" 12/24/04....7.2" 12/16/90....Trace This suggests that this pattern despite overall being far from very cold still has a pretty decent shot to produce some type of event. Nice work. Seems like 50/50 for something advisory or better Looks reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Despite some terrible analog dates centered around Dec 10th...there are snow chances. Even Dec 1990 had one right after Christmas and one of the analog dates is Xmas 1990. I went through the analog dates on CPC for Dec 10 next weekend and looked at BOS snowfall within 5 days of those dates and here is what I came up with: 12/21/70....18.6" 12/1/04......Trace 12/25/90....1.2" (a lot more interior) 12/19/92....Trace 12/15/71....3.7" 12/13/75....3.0" (over 15" more a few days later) 12/28/67....14.7" 12/24/04....7.2" 12/16/90....Trace This suggests that this pattern despite overall being far from very cold still has a pretty decent shot to produce some type of event. yeah there have consistently been some fine years in there the last few days from both the gfs and cmc ensembles in that period right around the 10th or so. just have to hope things break our way. might have to make hay while we can and then hope things shake up in the arctic later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Where'd you get that from? That's a nice chart. Just playing around in my down time at work. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Preliminaries through today... I'll do a more detailed stats breakdown in a few days so we can include some co-ops too... BDL BDR BOS PVD ORH --------------------------------------- Nov Dep +4.1 +4.3 +5.8 +4.0 +6.5 Fall Avg 56.3 58.9 58.5 57.1 54.5 Fall Dep +3.6 +3.4 +3.9 +3.1 +3.7 Fall Rank 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Phil's 2004 year holding on in the top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 This is impressive. From head to cold...just cold. Blue means snow right? Yikes. Despite some terrible analog dates centered around Dec 10th...there are snow chances. Even Dec 1990 had one right after Christmas and one of the analog dates is Xmas 1990. I went through the analog dates on CPC for Dec 10 next weekend and looked at BOS snowfall within 5 days of those dates and here is what I came up with: 12/21/70....18.6" 12/1/04......Trace 12/25/90....1.2" (a lot more interior) 12/19/92....Trace 12/15/71....3.7" 12/13/75....3.0" (over 15" more a few days later) 12/28/67....14.7" 12/24/04....7.2" 12/16/90....Trace This suggests that this pattern despite overall being far from very cold still has a pretty decent shot to produce some type of event. One point a weather friend made to me is that what's different this year is the vastness of the warmth. This isn't freak high temps with a passing storm or cold nights and warm days. This is bell to bell +10+ departures for days on end. We'll find out if his thought is right which is that this winter is in a handbackset on it's way to Rhode Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Preliminaries through today... I'll do a more detailed stats breakdown in a few days so we can include some co-ops too... BDL BDR BOS PVD ORH --------------------------------------- Nov Dep +4.1 +4.3 +5.8 +4.0 +6.5 Fall Avg 56.3 58.9 58.5 57.1 54.5 Fall Dep +3.6 +3.4 +3.9 +3.1 +3.7 Fall Rank 1 1 1 1 1 I wonder what the odds were for a record warm & record snowy SON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think this pattern is going to go straigh til mid to late Feb and then March will be decent and April cold and wet...Maybe it is good we got the Oct storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Preliminaries through today... I'll do a more detailed stats breakdown in a few days so we can include some co-ops too... BDL BDR BOS PVD ORH --------------------------------------- Nov Dep +4.1 +4.3 +5.8 +4.0 +6.5 Fall Avg 56.3 58.9 58.5 57.1 54.5 Fall Dep +3.6 +3.4 +3.9 +3.1 +3.7 Fall Rank 1 1 1 1 1 Makes Summer 2010 look pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think this pattern is going to go straigh til mid to late Feb and then March will be decent and April cold and wet...Maybe it is good we got the Oct storm Thanks blizzard24.. I can now sleep tonight... can you send me the link of the model that shows an hour 2,160 so I have it for next year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I was in Brooklyn today on a call at Saveway Petroleum. You near there? Were you at the Danielson office or the station on rte 6? Either way. I'm a few miles north and west of all of that, up rte 169. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 December 1990 keeps showing up in the analogs a lot recently for GEFS and GGEM ensembles. What a terrible month that was. I had 4 inches of snow dec 27 1990 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The WINDEX checklist is marginal for Friday night...so we may see some snow showers with the passage of that vortmax. The lapse rates are a bit marginal...but the LI spike is large and there is some low level moisture. We'll want the more amped up shortwave solution like the Euro/UK versus the tamer GFS...this will help with the lapse rates. Given the marginal setup, we'll likely struggle to get more than flurries or a snow shower instead of a line of squalls. But in this horrifically boring pattern, its at least something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Preliminaries through today... I'll do a more detailed stats breakdown in a few days so we can include some co-ops too... BDL BDR BOS PVD ORH --------------------------------------- Nov Dep +4.1 +4.3 +5.8 +4.0 +6.5 Fall Avg 56.3 58.9 58.5 57.1 54.5 Fall Dep +3.6 +3.4 +3.9 +3.1 +3.7 Fall Rank 1 1 1 1 1 That's pretty telling right there... do you mind running BTV, MVL, and MPV for the same info? I'm curious how we fared up here over the "fall" season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.