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Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part IV


Typhoon Tip

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I often fall into the same rut that you did, but I managed to avoid it this time. I think not being in front of the comp all day helped.

Yes, thx for understanding...but I knew I didn't REALLY believe a lot of that when I wrote it - oh well. It's going to be fun weekend following whatever this has to offer.

You know what I have been thinking about all day of all things? Having to go through this crap for what I really love the best, big blizzards - hows that for ironic.

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11 PM disco snip

Radar and recon fixes indicate Irene has made the long-forecast turn toward the north-northeast now and is moving at 020/12 kt. Irene is caught between a broad subtropical ridge to the east and an approaching shortwave trough currently moving eastward over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The hurricane is expected to continue moving north-northeastward for the next 24 hours or so as the ridge to the east amplifies northward. Thereafter...the cyclone should accelerate to the northeast as it gets caught up in deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the shortwave trough. The forecast track has only been nudged slightly eastward of the previous track through 36 hours due to the more eastward initial position. However...all of the models suggest that some slight mid-level ridging will occur across southern New England and the mid-Atlantic states during the next 12-24 hours...which should act to keep Irene close to the coasts of New Jersey and the Delmarva Peninsula. The track forecast lies down the middle of the NHC guidance envelope and is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model tracks.
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I think some had visions of a cat 3 slamming us or something, lol. This will be a pretty big deal in a lot of spots. The only fly in the ointment is if we get a Euro track which keeps it over land nearly the whole time.

I think that's very unlikely.

And as for the cat 3... anyone with a brain thought the absolute worst case scenario for this was a strong cat 1/weak cat 2.

Here was my blog post from a bit ago

http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/2011/08/26/evening-thoughts-on-hurricane-irene/

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As I commented earlier, Irene is continuing to move East of all of the models. The new position at 11pm ET is 32.6N 76.9W. It was forecasted by the NHC at 5pm to be at 77.1W three hours from now at 2 AM. If this track continues at that advisory, a new cone should be placed eastward.

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I think that's very unlikely.

And as for the cat 3... anyone with a brain thought the absolute worst case scenario for this was a strong cat 1/weak cat 2.

Here was my blog post from a bit ago

http://ryanhanrahan....urricane-irene/

I think much of the shortcoming with regard to it's current intensity will be negated because if it were a cat 4 right now, it would likley weaken faster.....the net result is prob an 80 mph cane instead of a 100mph cane over LI.....not a huge deal

NC is getting dicked more than we are.

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As I commented earlier, Irene is continuing to move East of all of the models. The new position at 11pm ET is 32.6N 76.9W. It was forecasted by the NHC at 5pm to be at 77.1W three hours from now at 2 AM. If this track continues at that advisory, a new cone should be placed eastward.

Sounds like from a post above they expect the east ridge to build in more to keep the track closer to the coast...

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I think that's very unlikely.

And as for the cat 3... anyone with a brain thought the absolute worst case scenario for this was a strong cat 1/weak cat 2.

Here was my blog post from a bit ago

http://ryanhanrahan....urricane-irene/

Yeah with each passing hour, I'm having a hard time believing the Euro track or even the 00z NAM, but we've been fooled by wobbles before. Agreed on your thoughts in the blog post...nicely written.

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Yeah with each passing hour, I'm having a hard time believing the Euro track or even the 00z NAM, but we've been fooled by wobbles before. Agreed on your thoughts in the blog post...nicely written.

Thanks, Will. Some models are showing a left bend pre-landfall and then a bend back to the right. I think that will be hard to do. But we'll see.

I wouldn't be surprise by an east trend to RI... but feel like inland runner track is a very low probability scenario.

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Good news is that the NOAA Hurricane Force Wind Speed Probabilities have been nudged upwards for southern New England... Boston went from a 3% to a 6%, now matched with NYC's probability for hurricane force wind speeds. Baby steps, folks. :)

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I don't understand...somewhere in SNE there will be either a strong TS or weak hurricane. As far as I'm concerned, a few hours of 50+mph winds is a good storm. Part of me wants to experience a stronger storm, but I'm not sure we really want something in the Cat 2 range. That would be nasty in these parts.

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Thanks, Will. Some models are showing a left bend pre-landfall and then a bend back to the right. I think that will be hard to do. But we'll see.

I wouldn't be surprise by an east trend to RI... but feel like inland runner track is a very low probability scenario.

I agree 100% w everything, except I think LF will be a bit east of New Haven.

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I don't understand...somewhere in SNE there will be either a strong TS or weak hurricane. As far as I'm concerned, a few hours of 50+mph winds is a good storm. Part of me wants to experience a stronger storm, but I'm not sure we really want something in the Cat 2 range. That would be nasty in these parts.

Yeah I think most here would maximize their experience with a weak cat 1...you start getting cat 2/3 winds in here and everyone loses power and we see a lot of house/property damage...really can't enjoy the storm as much in that setting. It would certainly be more extreme conditions, but not sure how enjoyable they would be. I'm going to try and get 90-100 mph gusts on the Cape to get my wind fix...but as far as I'm concerned, those type of winds can stay out on the exposed beaches.

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