CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 LOL. I've been out all day until now. I will have to go back and see what this was all about. I can only assume that because we're not going to see a cat 2 or higher all the way into Bangor that people are bitching and moaning about it. bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 I often fall into the same rut that you did, but I managed to avoid it this time. I think not being in front of the comp all day helped. Yes, thx for understanding...but I knew I didn't REALLY believe a lot of that when I wrote it - oh well. It's going to be fun weekend following whatever this has to offer. You know what I have been thinking about all day of all things? Having to go through this crap for what I really love the best, big blizzards - hows that for ironic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 11 PM disco snip Radar and recon fixes indicate Irene has made the long-forecast turn toward the north-northeast now and is moving at 020/12 kt. Irene is caught between a broad subtropical ridge to the east and an approaching shortwave trough currently moving eastward over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The hurricane is expected to continue moving north-northeastward for the next 24 hours or so as the ridge to the east amplifies northward. Thereafter...the cyclone should accelerate to the northeast as it gets caught up in deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the shortwave trough. The forecast track has only been nudged slightly eastward of the previous track through 36 hours due to the more eastward initial position. However...all of the models suggest that some slight mid-level ridging will occur across southern New England and the mid-Atlantic states during the next 12-24 hours...which should act to keep Irene close to the coasts of New Jersey and the Delmarva Peninsula. The track forecast lies down the middle of the NHC guidance envelope and is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I think some had visions of a cat 3 slamming us or something, lol. This will be a pretty big deal in a lot of spots. The only fly in the ointment is if we get a Euro track which keeps it over land nearly the whole time. I think that's very unlikely. And as for the cat 3... anyone with a brain thought the absolute worst case scenario for this was a strong cat 1/weak cat 2. Here was my blog post from a bit ago http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/2011/08/26/evening-thoughts-on-hurricane-irene/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Kept it at Cat. 2, 100mph winds at 11. TOR warnings already popping up in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 As I commented earlier, Irene is continuing to move East of all of the models. The new position at 11pm ET is 32.6N 76.9W. It was forecasted by the NHC at 5pm to be at 77.1W three hours from now at 2 AM. If this track continues at that advisory, a new cone should be placed eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Kept it at Cat. 2, 100mph winds at 11. TOR warnings already popping up in NC. They have been up for a couple hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It will be interesting how many people will be able to post through the storm, and how many of us still have power on Sunday evening. My non-posts will be the broadcast of my destruction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 NAM wayyyyyy west... fook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 NAM wayyyyyy west... fook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I think that's very unlikely. And as for the cat 3... anyone with a brain thought the absolute worst case scenario for this was a strong cat 1/weak cat 2. Here was my blog post from a bit ago http://ryanhanrahan....urricane-irene/ I think much of the shortcoming with regard to it's current intensity will be negated because if it were a cat 4 right now, it would likley weaken faster.....the net result is prob an 80 mph cane instead of a 100mph cane over LI.....not a huge deal NC is getting dicked more than we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 As I commented earlier, Irene is continuing to move East of all of the models. The new position at 11pm ET is 32.6N 76.9W. It was forecasted by the NHC at 5pm to be at 77.1W three hours from now at 2 AM. If this track continues at that advisory, a new cone should be placed eastward. Sounds like from a post above they expect the east ridge to build in more to keep the track closer to the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 NAM wayyyyyy west... fook lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 NAM wayyyyyy west... fook Will you relax? I mostly lurk here, but you are the most panicky mofo on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I think that's very unlikely. And as for the cat 3... anyone with a brain thought the absolute worst case scenario for this was a strong cat 1/weak cat 2. Here was my blog post from a bit ago http://ryanhanrahan....urricane-irene/ Yeah with each passing hour, I'm having a hard time believing the Euro track or even the 00z NAM, but we've been fooled by wobbles before. Agreed on your thoughts in the blog post...nicely written. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 LOL I don't feel bad for anyone who has waited this long to use the "ignore" feature. Normally I do it for Kevin during/before snowstorms when I'm busy at work but have expanded it's use this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 My non-posts will be the broadcast of my destruction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 He needs to go back and read...he did step away from the board for a while though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yeah with each passing hour, I'm having a hard time believing the Euro track or even the 00z NAM, but we've been fooled by wobbles before. Agreed on your thoughts in the blog post...nicely written. Thanks, Will. Some models are showing a left bend pre-landfall and then a bend back to the right. I think that will be hard to do. But we'll see. I wouldn't be surprise by an east trend to RI... but feel like inland runner track is a very low probability scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Good news is that the NOAA Hurricane Force Wind Speed Probabilities have been nudged upwards for southern New England... Boston went from a 3% to a 6%, now matched with NYC's probability for hurricane force wind speeds. Baby steps, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I don't understand...somewhere in SNE there will be either a strong TS or weak hurricane. As far as I'm concerned, a few hours of 50+mph winds is a good storm. Part of me wants to experience a stronger storm, but I'm not sure we really want something in the Cat 2 range. That would be nasty in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Thanks, Will. Some models are showing a left bend pre-landfall and then a bend back to the right. I think that will be hard to do. But we'll see. I wouldn't be surprise by an east trend to RI... but feel like inland runner track is a very low probability scenario. I agree 100% w everything, except I think LF will be a bit east of New Haven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Love the face palm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I don't understand...somewhere in SNE there will be either a strong TS or weak hurricane. As far as I'm concerned, a few hours of 50+mph winds is a good storm. Part of me wants to experience a stronger storm, but I'm not sure we really want something in the Cat 2 range. That would be nasty in these parts. Yeah I think most here would maximize their experience with a weak cat 1...you start getting cat 2/3 winds in here and everyone loses power and we see a lot of house/property damage...really can't enjoy the storm as much in that setting. It would certainly be more extreme conditions, but not sure how enjoyable they would be. I'm going to try and get 90-100 mph gusts on the Cape to get my wind fix...but as far as I'm concerned, those type of winds can stay out on the exposed beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Sounds like from a post above they expect the east ridge to build in more to keep the track closer to the coast... If they were expecting this in their earlier track prog, then perhaps they better take another look at it since the track is definitely east of their earlier guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 when is the next recon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Ryan/mets do you expect strengthening on next recon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 We got two huge blizzards this last winter...I am thinking we can get two huge hurricanes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Analog 96 must have initialized the 12z euro and 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Analog 96 must have initialized the 12z euro and 00z NAM. sorry man - just saw your text buried in my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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