HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Saw Ray or someone else's comment while out with the family about how we don't understand the nuances of these storms yet. Couldn't agree more. This one from the start was just weird. Pressure low, winds not as low as they should have been. Flight level winds not matching surface winds, inability to ever stay organized etc. Seems like the epic canes just come together and crank, then we have storms like this that just make you scratch your head. Looks like it's heading towards Moorhead City to me. This is very, very common in so many tropical systems...So many under-perform and people are often left with disgust once they come through and feel they were victims of a hysteria induced effort to boost tv ratings....But in most cases the hype is at least quasi-justified, because for every Dennis and Lilly there's a Katrina Part 1 that came out of nowhere and delivered an unexpected and extremely signficant CAT 1 to Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm not sure how many tors we'll see spawned up here. They seem to spawn easier down in M.A. and SE in these, but I guess we can't rule out an isolated 1 or 2. We have kind of crappy data anyway on tors up here in storms. As we await the Euro. . . Here's some record of TC-spawned tornadoes in Bob and Gloria from Wikipedia: Re: Bob 91 "Additionally, six confirmed tornadoes were associated with hurricane Bob; four touched down in North Carolina and two on Long Island, New York. There were 16 unconfirmed tornadoes reported, including nine on Hatteras Island, North Carolina, two in Rhode Island, and two in Massachusetts." Re: Gloria 85 1 tornado in NJ, 1 in MA http://en.wikipedia....awned_tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It will be interesting to see if this is a storm where these western tracks end up more correct. We have a limited sample size which has show most of our TC's have accelerated and gained longitude quicker than what models shows, but like anything else..there will always be exceptions. Not saying this is the one, but it will be interesting to see what happens. I think the models are pretty locked now...just a matter of if it scrapes NJ or remains just east of the coastline there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It will be interesting to see if this is a storm where these western tracks end up more correct. We have a limited sample size which has show most of our TC's have accelerated and gained longitude quicker than what models shows, but like anything else..there will always be exceptions. Not saying this is the one, but it will be interesting to see what happens. I think the models are pretty locked now...just a matter of if it scrapes NJ or remains just east of the coastline there. Yeah this sure is unfolding in an odd way. Seems to me center will just graze OuterBanks (ie. further EAST from models earlier today) but then track closer to NJ coast or even into NJ (ie. further WEST from models earlier today), up to just east of NYC... thereafter, I'm not so sure how much of a right hook we get, whether center reaches ORH or stays in western Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 center already looks too far east to make landfall at Morehead City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Already out Wiz -- http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/day2.prob.gif DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2011 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST ..SYNOPSIS ASIDE FROM HURRICANE IRENE LIFTING NNEWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET SEVERE-WISE DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL ENVIRONMENT IS DUE PRIMARILY TO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN U.S. THAT HAS YET TO BREAK DOWN AND RELINQUISH ITS INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF THE REGION. ..HURRICANE IRENE HURRICANE IRENE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NNEWD ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND LIKELY COME ASHORE OVER WRN LONG ISLAND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN ITS EXPECTED TRACK...MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...TO THE RIGHT OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND AN INCREASE IN THETA-E AND BUOYANCY. FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT UNSTABLE...BUT LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WHERE STRONGEST SURGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This is very, very common in so many tropical systems...So many under-perform and people are often left with disgust once they come through and feel they were victims of a hysteria induced effort to boost tv ratings....But in most cases the hype is at least quasi-justified, because for every Dennis and Lilly there's a Katrina Part 1 that came out of nowhere and delivered an unexpected and extremely signficant CAT 1 to Miami. What's been odd is the NHC has noted most of the day that the surface winds were not even close and yet kept the advisory speeds up higher thinking it may come back. Discussions are clear on this. IMO that's one of the problems, they should have dropped the winds in the advisory and raised them later if it became clear it was warranted. People are only going to remember that this was a 100+ mph hurricane that delivered something less than that probably. Sure flooding rains, surge etc, but it's a far cry from the 120+ mph monster that was predicted a day ago. (as it crossed the Carolinas)..again not criticizing the bad intensity forecast...nature of the beast. Just not sure I understand holding onto the higher winds. As it creeps north as expected west of the track is TS strength but not very robust http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=41013 Cape Lookout is increasing, and fairly impressive http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=clkn7 Just south of there http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=41036 SW of there.... http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=41037 Again solid tropical storm force winds. The last two should see a spike as the "eyewall" moves near in the next few hours. It's going to be an interesting storm with some tragic flooding from rain, probably some surge issues, but what could have been one of the greats...well we'll see but I think solid 50-70 is most likely for sustained, beginning to question the higher end of that if we don't see the buoys at least get to that over the open water. I'm thinking most of us will be around the 50mph sustained mark? Plus or minus 5 or so. Gusts is the wildcard, only takes a few to 80 to do a lot of fast damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This goes without saying but this thing is loaded with moisture. The Outer Banks are up to 6" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 center already looks too far east to make landfall at Morehead City Yeah, maybe just east. Anyway....off to bed. Sunday is going to be a windy, wet day. I wonder if I'll get 2" of rain here? I'm 50/50 on that... Surge is going to be an interesting thing to me. We get terrible flooding from regular winter storms. This one is going to have a tremendous push of water with it AND huge seas on top. Could still get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 well satellite in the last few frames is gone, but it still looks as though Irene was moving a tad east of due north...wondering were LF is actually going to be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Awesome video from Bern, NC, about 20 miles north inland from Morehead City (found this in another thread): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Saw Ray or someone else's comment while out with the family about how we don't understand the nuances of these storms yet. Couldn't agree more. This one from the start was just weird. Pressure low, winds not as low as they should have been. Flight level winds not matching surface winds, inability to ever stay organized etc. Seems like the epic canes just come together and crank, then we have storms like this that just make you scratch your head. Looks like it's heading towards Moorhead City to me. Looks like many a description of a snow storm stuttering out of the gate, versus one that you know is going to be great because it develops explosively and bombs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Already out Wiz -- http://kamala.cod.ed...C/day2.prob.gif DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2011 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST ..SYNOPSIS ASIDE FROM HURRICANE IRENE LIFTING NNEWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET SEVERE-WISE DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. THE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL ENVIRONMENT IS DUE PRIMARILY TO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN U.S. THAT HAS YET TO BREAK DOWN AND RELINQUISH ITS INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF THE REGION. ..HURRICANE IRENE HURRICANE IRENE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NNEWD ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND LIKELY COME ASHORE OVER WRN LONG ISLAND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN ITS EXPECTED TRACK...MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...TO THE RIGHT OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND AN INCREASE IN THETA-E AND BUOYANCY. FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT UNSTABLE...BUT LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WHERE STRONGEST SURGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS. If the eye gets here somewhere betweeen 8 and 11 am it will be just in time for high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 00z EURO up and running... 949 mb initial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 00z EURO up and running... 949 mb initial What link are you using for the Euro right now? Or do you have it from a pay site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 What link are you using for the Euro right now? Or do you have it from a pay site? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical500mbSLP000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical500mbSLP000.gif Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I guarantee you, if the track is over Newark, Nantucket will still get a higher gust than JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 24 looks like just NE of Norfolk to me? Somebody got 30/36/42? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 How come the first image shows 952mb but the second shows 960mb? Is it just b/c the first one is more focused on the tropics and the second one more focused on North America? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like new Euro barely scrapes the NJ shore and hits near JFK area it seems. Or close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like new Euro barely scrapes the NJ shore and hits near JFK area it seems. Or close to it. not much of a hook if 48 hr 00z EURO is in NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 not much of a hook if 48 hr 00z EURO is in NH Yeah pig ridge shoots it due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like new Euro barely scrapes the NJ shore and hits near JFK area it seems. Or close to it. Darn, I'm really hoping for a hook to the east like you, Will and other mets have talked about. I'm a big hydrology guy I want my 10" of rain. <br> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 OKay so all of 00z guidence now in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Darn, I'm really hoping for a hook to the east like you, Will and other mets have talked about. I'm a big hydrology guy I want my 10" of rain. :rain:<br> The trough is lifting out and ridge building to the east which is helping to keep westerlies more north. It's still possible it could move slightly more east...they can do funny things north of HSE, but the pattern is kind of unlike what we normally see for SNE canes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Night y'all Have fun with this tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The trough is lifting out and ridge building to the east which is helping to keep westerlies more north. It's still possible it could move slightly more east...they can do funny things north of HSE, but the pattern is kind of unlike what we normally see for SNE canes. Yeah, it's early for a cane too. How's the wind threat look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yeah, it's early for a cane too. How's the wind threat look? Well this type of pattern is different than what we've been accustomed to. Usually you want a deep ULL to our west, but this time the ridge to our east is acting like a wall and not allowing it to be a fish storm. Pretty cool sh*t right there. Wind threat looks pretty high for SNE if the euro verified...well for a Cat 1 type deal anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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