Hurricane Irene - Discussion Part IV

[weatherwiz]

Really have to watch that trough developing to our west as well...looks like some models are really deepening it which is probably the reason for them bending Irene back west once it gets past SE VA. This is just such an abnormal storm with size/track it's so hard to really use past systems as any sort of boundary.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Fella! Where've you been??

Max Gusts:

PVD 78

ORH 62

BOS 72

PWM 62

BHB 54

Not sure if we are talking max gusts of sustained, for gusts:

TF Green 70 mph

Otis 64 mph - same as my place, maybe 61 here

BOS 66

Don't know about anywhere else. I don't think any of us (RI east) see sustained hurricane force winds, if we do not for any extended period of time from RI into EMA and Cape Cod. Expecting sustained winds to be in the 50-65mph range.

I can't figure out what the models are doing, truly bizzare but there have been hints of the ridge giving it the boot left and I'd have to presume at this point it is valid.

GFS is well left of the 12z run by my eyes.

[weathafella]

Hey Coastal, not just Ukie/Euro... 0Z NAM seems to be drawn to this too... scraping coast of NJ, landfall western LI, and then a lesser right hook than before.

As I posted above, could this have something to do with models catching on to timing of trough amplifying some more?

I agree, Euro tnite will be very interesting...

I bet the Euro holds serve....and is ultimately proven wrong. These storms invariably go east of the last prog. See Eduoard.

[ryanjn]

I definitely want to hit 50mph in Plymouth, but it'll be tough for sure. We'll see. I'll be chasing Irene on the roof of Boyd haha

You better be at the top of the tower, too.

[ROOSTA]

Just a coincident that Irene has tracked almost dead nuts on the Continental shelf since leaving the Bahamas.

[wxsniss]

Steady as she goes... latest VDM:

000URNT12 KNHC 270254VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011A. 27/02:34:10ZB. 32 deg 32 min N 076 deg 52 min WC. 700 mb 2679 mD. 66 ktE. 086 deg 44 nmF. 171 deg 91 ktG. 087 deg 67 nmH. 952 mbI. 10 C / 3051 mJ. 15 C / 3049 mK. 11 C / NAL. NAM. NAN. 12345 / 7O. 0.02 / 1 nmP. AF308 2909A IRENE OB 20MAX FL WIND 108 KT SE QUAD 22:47:20ZDROPSONDE RELEASED NEAR MAX FL WIND INBOUND RECORDED 79 KTS AT SPLASH PT;

[A-L-E-X]

Really have to watch that trough developing to our west as well...looks like some models are really deepening it which is probably the reason for them bending Irene back west once it gets past SE VA. This is just such an abnormal storm with size/track it's so hard to really use past systems as any sort of boundary.

And the sample size is just way too small to go by past history-- not many storms have made landfall this far north. If you include the 1800s, you'll see that there were more storms that took tracks like this.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Steady as she goes... latest VDM:

000URNT12 KNHC 270254VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011A. 27/02:34:10ZB. 32 deg 32 min N 076 deg 52 min WC. 700 mb 2679 mD. 66 ktE. 086 deg 44 nmF. 171 deg 91 ktG. 087 deg 67 nmH. 952 mbI. 10 C / 3051 mJ. 15 C / 3049 mK. 11 C / NAL. NAM. NAN. 12345 / 7O. 0.02 / 1 nmP. AF308 2909A IRENE OB 20MAX FL WIND 108 KT SE QUAD 22:47:20ZDROPSONDE RELEASED NEAR MAX FL WIND INBOUND RECORDED 79 KTS AT SPLASH PT;

That's a "good" sign...good to see at least recorded hurricane force albeit below the advisory. I'll be interested to see sustained reports of more than 85 anywhere near the path tonight or offshore at the buoys.

[weatherwiz]

And the sample size is just way too small to go by past history-- not many storms have made landfall this far north. If you include the 1800s, you'll see that there were more storms that took tracks like this.

They were talking on TWC...the last time there was a track similar to this was 1821 and that was a devastating tornado for the entire east coast.

[weathafella]

I gotta hope I end up inside a tornado....

[A-L-E-X]

They were talking on TWC...the last time there was a track similar to this was 1821 and that was a devastating tornado for the entire east coast.

That was the time to be alive if you liked lots of snowstorms, lots of severe weather and big hurricanes.... the big 1804 snowacane, the september 1815 gale that created Long Beach and the 1821 hurricane.... all within 17 years lol. Maybe we're in the middle of another one of those periods

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Well away from the center to the east winds are impressive

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41001

[weathafella]

Forbes kinda looks like he was struck by lightning....

[weatherwiz]

That was the time to be alive if you liked lots of snowstorms, lots of severe weather and big hurricanes.... the big 1804 snowacane, the september 1815 gale that created Long Beach and the 1821 hurricane.... all within 17 years lol. Maybe we're in the middle of another one of those periods

And people blame today's extremes on Global Warming

Like these extremes haven't happened before.

[wxsniss]

I bet the Euro holds serve....and is ultimately proven wrong. These storms invariably go east of the last prog. See Eduoard.

Agree, I'm anticipating as much. Surprised it's taking so long for models to catch on to influence of westerlies, and in fact trended the other way laying down a more dangerous track for Philly and NYC. Maybe they are on to an Atlantic ridge as Messenger suggests. Maybe they are catching on to trough amplifying more and catching Irene more westward as Philly disco suggested.

Historically, it does feel like there is an inevitable shift east as these TCs enter northern latitudes. Edouard was a ridiculous example of that. Hence the "cry wolf" effect on the public. In this case, the projected track is well enough west that we can only benefit at this point, it seems.

[A-L-E-X]

And people blame today's extremes on Global Warming

Like these extremes haven't happened before.

Did you see my post in the earthquake thread? Really creepy coincidence incoming.....

Back in 1944 NYS had its greatest earthquake on record, a 5.8 upstate. It was felt up and down the east coast though. About a week later we had the 1944 hurricane.

Meanwhile, this week we've had a 5.8 earthquake (granted it was in Va, but it was also their strongest on record and felt up and down the east coast too). And we're about to get a hurricane again lol.

Back in 1944 they were afraid the Germans were attacking before they knew it was an earthquake. This time around, they thought it was terrorists lol.

[weatherwiz]

Did you see my post in the earthquake thread? Really creepy coincidence incoming.....

Back in 1944 NYS had its greatest earthquake on record, a 5.8 upstate. It was felt up and down the east coast though. About a week later we had the 1944 hurricane.

Meanwhile, this week we've had a 5.8 earthquake (granted it was in Va, but it was also their strongest on record and felt up and down the east coast too). And we're about to get a hurricane again lol.

Back in 1944 they were afraid the Germans were attacking before they knew it was an earthquake. This time around, they thought it was terrorists lol.

I saw that posted on facebook by Matt (Southlandwx)...pretty crazy coincidence

[wxsniss]

I gotta hope I end up inside a tornado....

Oh yeah... forgot that very real possibility. In that case, max gusts in any of those lucky sites in eastern Mass 90+.

How spoiled were we this year: back to back to back blizzards, an F3, an earthquake, this impending hurricane.

[A-L-E-X]

Well away from the center to the east winds are impressive

http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=41001

Yeah, I was going to say, even if the GFS track verifies it looks like the strongest winds are well east of the eye.... basically the Twin Forks and further east into your area. This is not like a hurricane deep in the tropics which wraps its highest winds in close to the eye. It might actually be beneficial to be about 100 miles east of the eye to get the highest winds.

[ORH_wxman]

Oh yeah... forgot that very real possibility. In that case, max gusts in any of those lucky sites in eastern Mass 90+.

How spoiled were we this year: back to back to back blizzards, an F3, an earthquake, this impending hurricane.

I'm not sure how many tors we'll see spawned up here. They seem to spawn easier down in M.A. and SE in these, but I guess we can't rule out an isolated 1 or 2. We have kind of crappy data anyway on tors up here in storms.

[wxsniss]

NYTimes: 370,000 evacuated from NYC.

Katrina's legacy.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Agree, I'm anticipating as much. Surprised it's taking so long for models to catch on to influence of westerlies, and in fact trended the other way laying down a more dangerous track for Philly and NYC. Maybe they are on to an Atlantic ridge as Messenger suggests. Maybe they are catching on to trough amplifying more and catching Irene more westward as Philly disco suggested.

Historically, it does feel like there is an inevitable shift east as these TCs enter northern latitudes. Edouard was a ridiculous example of that. Hence the "cry wolf" effect on the public. In this case, the projected track is well enough west that we can only benefit at this point, it seems.

I think the west bump is real. Haven't really looked at it all that much but thought it was fairly well established they were building the ridge more as time went on. RGEM/NAM/UK all did it tonight to varying degrees, I also thought the 0z early cane models were west of earlier runs.

[weatherwiz]

I'm not sure how many tors we'll see spawned up here. They seem to spawn easier down in M.A. and SE in these, but I guess we can't rule out an isolated 1 or 2. We have kind of crappy data anyway on tors up here in storms.

The threat will obviously be much less around here than down there, for one, water temps are not nearly as warm here as they are down there so the instability gradient will not be as strong. Other than this though, like you said we really don't have a good data base or a good deal of records so really hard to gauge this.

[HarveyLeonardFan]

The Weather Channel business model has A LOT riding on this hurricane. This is the most hyped weather event in the history of the nation and if the general public determines it fails to meet expectations a lot of people will be losing faith in TWC...and will be less likely to tune in for other events. TWC has been running promos all week basically saying once the storm ends, "try us out"

They're basically admitting they don't get any ratings when there aren't any breaking weather events....I don't see how the hysteria they've helped foment is going to help them. I'm a huge fan of Bryan Norcross and his skills as a broadcaster....but when he's been saying all week long the big one is coming...he has failed miserably at adding the many necessary caveats and in my opinion he's been doing this in order to tell NBC executives what they want to hear.

[weatherwiz]

Dr. Forbes was talking about the TORCON a little bit ago and said it was like 3 or 4 over SNE Sunday!!!

Maybe I can see a tornado AND Hurricane...make up for 6/1.

[ORH_wxman]

Well I'm out. Busy day tomorrow tracking this.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Yeah, I was going to say, even if the GFS track verifies it looks like the strongest winds are well east of the eye.... basically the Twin Forks and further east into your area. This is not like a hurricane deep in the tropics which wraps its highest winds in close to the eye. It might actually be beneficial to be about 100 miles east of the eye to get the highest winds.

Saw Ray or someone else's comment while out with the family about how we don't understand the nuances of these storms yet. Couldn't agree more. This one from the start was just weird. Pressure low, winds not as low as they should have been. Flight level winds not matching surface winds, inability to ever stay organized etc. Seems like the epic canes just come together and crank, then we have storms like this that just make you scratch your head.

Looks like it's heading towards Moorhead City to me.

[weatherwiz]

Staying up for Euro/SPC outlooks then going to bed. Pretty exhausted actually, worked from 10 AM to 9:15 PM. So much adrenaline though.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The Weather Channel business model has A LOT riding on this hurricane. This is the most hyped weather event in the history of the nation and if the general public determines it fails to meet expectations a lot of people will be losing faith in TWC...and will be less likely to tune in for other events. TWC has been running promos all week basically saying once the storm ends, "try us out"

They're basically admitting they don't get any ratings when there aren't any breaking weather events....I don't see how the hysteria they've helped foment is going to help them. I'm a huge fan of Bryan Norcross and his skills as a broadcaster....but when he's been saying all week long the big one is coming...he has failed miserably at adding the many necessary caveats and in my opinion he's been doing this in order to tell NBC executives what they want to hear.

I don't think there was any unwarranted hype until today. When winds were obviously lower at the surface than normal might have made sense to drop the advsiory speeds down to better match. Even tonight, not sure anyone would argue with this being a 90mph cane versus 100.

Well I'm out. Busy day tomorrow tracking this.

night Will.

[wxsniss]

Saw Ray or someone else's comment while out with the family about how we don't understand the nuances of these storms yet. Couldn't agree more. This one from the start was just weird. Pressure low, winds not as low as they should have been. Flight level winds not matching surface winds, inability to ever stay organized etc. Seems like the epic canes just come together and crank, then we have storms like this that just make you scratch your head.

Looks like it's heading towards Moorhead City to me.

Best description of this storm I've seen on this board yet...