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Finished with around 1.6" since yesterday - i'll take it.

I’ve had some time to review the 00z data and it’s not making me feel any more comfortable. The “trend” I eluded to earlier has stopped and we seem to be zeroing in with confidence on the probable outcome on Monday. CAMs continue to show a quick-to-linear evolution of convection across Kansas, but virtually every CAM shows at least isolated supercell development between I-40 and the KS/OK border area by late afternoon. Another observation is that multiple models show or at least hint at prefrontal convection as well, somewhere near or east of I-35 during the early evening hours. At this point, I’m grasping at straws to try to find some limiting factors… 1. The 3km NAM does show marginal low-level lapse rates ahead of approaching convection from OKC and points south. (Around 6 C/km) The bad news? Every other model, including the NSSL WRF, shows considerably steeper lapse rates. It may be related to a low level moist bias. 2. The NAM/WRF suite shows clustered storm modes, trending toward bowing structures around OKC. The problem? The wind profiles are much more supercellular in nature, so I’d take reflectivity progs with a grain of salt. Another peculiar note is that the usually convective happy FV3 shows very little CI across Oklahoma, in an otherwise extremely favorable environment. Perhaps it’s residual mid-level capping, which appears minimal at best by 00z. Almost any way you slice it, the setup has an awfully high ceiling across Oklahoma and vicinity. Even in the best case, where you have a bowing structure surging SE across the state, the expected wind profiles and strong/extreme instability favor embedded tornadoes. If convection remains isolated across Oklahoma, even with only a couple of cells, the risk of any of those cells producing significant, potentially long-lived severe is rather high. Then you have the worst case scenario, which is presented by some models, including the 00z HRRR: a broken band of supercells ahead of the dryline with pre “frontal” cells, all of which seem to mature around or after sunset, over or close to Oklahoma City. Reference the latest SREF convective probabilities, at 03z Tue (within the most favorable environment) and there are >40% probabilities of convection near and south of I-40, despite models showing a relative lack of CI in the area. (Convective precip > 0.01” with >2000 J/kg CAPE and > 30kts effective shear)

We agree from like October 1st onwards and then part ways in April. I absolutely live for maximal frigid cold and snow all winter, but once that’s no longer a possibility, I’m all about sunny days with temps exceeding 80F! These cold, dreary springs are terrible.

We have been hit pretty good too, especially today. 1.27 today with a good storm for a 3 day total of 2.68. I love this weather and so do the fish.

Happy birthday!

Driving down 40 between Asheville and Old Fort this afternoon was not fun. Ran into quite a bit of pea to dime size hail and strong winds with zero visibility coming down the hill. Saw several cars that had hydroplaned coming through a downpour in Asheville too.

0.51" today (still dzl) Peepers here too. Summer has struck.

Yeah, it’s a nice time of year where you can get on snow if you want to. Or enjoy spring if you want that too. Some aerial shots of Stowe/Mansfield from a couple days ago. Plenty of coverage for 2,000 vertical feet on numerous runs if you want to earn some turns, which many of us have been doing. 33” of natural snow depth at the Co-Op Stake on the upper East side. Nosedive Glades and other woods shots on the Front still skiable.

Frogs out in force tonight. It's lovely.

What a great day for a birthday! Hope it was a good one .

Just finished up some heavy rain in Calvert. Spring peepers and tree frogs are out of control tonight, a very froggie night out.

Thanks, today is also known as “Cinco de Miko” or otherwise Happy Birthday to Blizz, Lol!

Still going…. Hit Stratton one last time this past Thursday to ensure the May turns. I will say the warmth and sun did a number on it from the previous Saturday but coverage was fine. A fair amount of walking had to be done though especially in the middle. Also blew the clip off my climbing skin so I had to boot pack the last 250 vert! 99 days and the season is ever so close to ending from a days perspective but from a season length perspective I’ve got two more months to go!

Yikes!

The fog around Parksburg was so thick you could not see the train station signs from inside the train car.

Wow, that is ridiculously gorgeous. Petunia breeding sure has yielded some pretty wild colors and patterns over the last few years.

Unexpectedly, today turned out quite pleasant with no rain IMBY after early this morning and lots of sunshine, although it was humid (for here). Have tallied 0.73" so far in the bucket the last few days which greened up the grass nicely.

When the constant back door gunk ends right around Memorial Day, we’re finally good for summer. June was the never ending N flow around the Canadian high that brought the smoke in.

Good Lord it looks like it rocking hard down there. The rain forest is definitely making it's way.

Good evening CW and thank you for your continued civility. Perhaps the question/discussion should be how/how fast are we, as a species, affecting the cyclical change of the climate. Stay well and have a good night, as always …

Hoping we turn the corner to much warmer/hotter weather by around the 20th of the month. It looks like we may be stuck in this cooler/wetter pattern for at least the next 10-14 days with a few warmer days mixed in.

Made it to 60 today, and added on a couple hundredths of rain. .87" since yesterday.

Nice . I’m about 5 minutes from there

Almost a quarter inch at my stations, .23 so far.