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Well considering that it was showing a moderate/borderline strong El Niño on the last run then suddenly jumped to a super El Niño in one run, yea, it’s safe to assume it’s still adjusting and playing catch up to all the other guidance

Do you really want to talk about small sample sizes? Your entire existence on this global climate change board is substantiated by a thread where you talk solely about your county’s climate data. Like, are we being for real?

I was just logging on to bitch. I’ve been sitting under this turd for 45 minutes now.

Tomorrow’s system is going to have a painfully tight gradient in rainfall with amounts over 1/2” and under 1/10” likely spanning a single county

finished the month with 2 1/2" of rain.

Exactly the same here, 0.40" thru 7 AM and 0.78" 7 AM thru 9 PM. (Another 0.01" of DZ overnight, but that goes in the May bucket.) Month finished at 4.00" - 7th consecutive BN month and 10th of 11, but only by a whisker. April average is 4.06".

The reason many of the big mets on twitter are going with super and east based is because most Ninos that have started out the way this one is starting out have gone that way, so they’re not just doing it because they have some inherent warm bias - they have data to back it up. But the thing about meteorology (and the broader sciences) is that past data is only right until otherwise proven wrong.

Thanks. 1. You’re right that 1911-12 was colder in the Great Lakes/Midwest than in the South (see image below). So, good find and makes my statement wrong about ALL moderate or stronger El Niños on record not being colder in the N than in the S. I stand corrected. 2. However, though not as cold, the South still had a pretty cold winter (2-4 BN), which is unlike the NN on the Cansips. So, in that regard, the Cansips is still not making sense to me. Also, 1911-2 was about as cold in the S as the NE. 3. By the way, 1911-12 was just a lower end moderate with a peak of +1.2 per Webb rather than strong. But it’s still an exception to my statement since I was referring to moderate or stronger: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

Oh I do too. I take everything with a grain of salt at this stage. I have also said several times that I expect '26-27 winter to be milder here than the past 2. But these automatic assumptions of some torch winter and a super nino- not buying it at this stage.

This is where I’m at as well. Until I see a more supportive evidence in the SSTA/MJO/WWB evolution that supports a CANSIPS-like outcome, I’m taking it with a grain of salt. Modelology vs. Meteorology.

My modelling method would suggest the same probability for our sub. Lots of CAN air intrusion.

Had 2.07" this month but 1.5" of that has fallen since 4/27. Only 51% of our normal rainfall for the month.

Did I let you know? I honestly forget. I think it was 72.7.

Rollercoaster temps for the 1st week of the month here in TH.

I have to be honest...I'm taking it with a grain of salt at this stage, too....to be fair to Adam. If it still looks like that in October, then it may be time to take it more seriously.

So the model is simultaneously correct in jumping to a stronger Nino, but INCORRECT in staying consistent with a cold winter look in the Great Lakes, similiar to the last 2 winters. Got it.

May 1 1966: Winter makes a last stab at Minnesota with a low of 5 at Cook. A widespread freeze hits the rest of the state. 1935: An unusually late snow and ice storm hits east central Minnesota. The heaviest ice accumulations are between St. Paul and Forest Lake and westward to Buffalo in Wright County, with accumulations of 1 to 1.5 inches on wires. The downtown Minneapolis weather bureau records 3 inches of snow. For Friday, May 1, 2026 1854 - The Connecticut River reached a level of nearly twenty-nine feet at Hartford (the highest level of record up until that time). The record height was reached in the midst of a great New England flood which followed sixty-six hours of steady rain. (David Ludlum) 1935 - Snow, ice and sleet brought winter back to parts of southeast Minnesota. Minneapolis received three inches of snow to tie their May record which was established in 1892. (1st-2nd) (The Weather Channel) 1954 - The temperature at Polebridge MT dipped to 5 degrees below zero to establish a state record for the month of May. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and heavy rain in Texas. Baseball size hail pounded Dublin, and 3.75 inches of rain soaked Brady. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front crossing the Rocky Mountain Region gusted to 90 mph at Lamar CO. High winds created blinding dust storms in eastern Colorado, closing roads around Limon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the southeastern U.S. Rainfall totals of 1.84 inches at Charlotte NC and 2.86 inches at Atlanta GA were records for the date. Strong thunderstorm winds uprooted trees in Twiggs County GA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from northern Alabama to North Carolina. There were sixty-three reports of large hail or damaging winds, with hail four inches in diameter reported near Cartersville GA. Ten cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 90s. Jacksonville FL reported a record high of 96 degrees. Late night thunderstorms over central Texas produced up to ten inches of rain in southern Kimble County and northern Edwards County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

I disagree. While the mean of a strong Nino is a milder than avg winter in the north, keep in mind theres tons of hugging the warmest and/or least wintry Ninos on record in here by some. Thats not how weather always works. The strong El Nino of 1911-12 was a brutally cold winter, one of the coldest on record. It definitely didnt fit the mold of a typical strong Nino. And yes, even back then (before we hear about a different climate) strong Ninos generally produced mild winters, including 1877-78 (year without a winter in the upper midwest) and 1918-19 (a winter far less snowy than any ive ever experience). Using the more common post-1950 list. Moderate are a mixed bag- several cold winters in there. And several of the strong Ninos averaged on the average to cool side of average here.

Nice morning, I'm enjoying this coolness. You know it'll be in short supply soon.

I had ~0.05” yesterday morning, which brought me up to a total of ~1.5” for April, <50% of the normal of ~3.25” but ~double what I got in March (which was almost all on March 8th by the way). The last 1” of the 1.5” was received just since April 26th on 3 different days with most of that (0.8”) falling on 4/26.

This looks like a terrific opportunity for Brian to end up under one of those stationary diurnal cloud streets while it's sunny a mi E and W of his immediate neighborhood ?

Haven't gone this route yet. I did go soy-free a year or two ago on your rec, and I think it's made a big flock-health difference, so I'm willing to try this.

Do I laugh at this, like it, or thank you? I chose none of the above. I couldn't decide.

Figured this is appropriate given today's date.