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has anyone else noticed an absence of mosquitos

Maybe biased a little extreme, but the Euro is legit seasonal model.

so far 95.5

I didn't see anyone mention, but it was an incredible spring here for western Pennsylvania standards. The average high of 65.7°F ranked as 4th warmest on record for meteorological spring behind only 2012, 2024 & 1921. Incredibly, each of the last three springs are among the 8th warmest (by average daily high) in the entire threaded record! Wow!

After a relatively cooler start to the month, it looks like temperatures should be decidedly warmer than normal for much of the next two weeks. Here are the European ensemble means and spreads for highs & lows at Allegheny County Airport. Looks like great pool weather coming up.

Tapped 90 for the first time this month about 45 minutes ago, my 5th 90 or above temp for the year so far. Just missed it yesterday when I didn't get past 89. After a 65 low this morning, it's currently sunny and 89 with dp 60.

Summer is here!

You mean "right-moving!"

84° , which is hot for here.

I would say the more positive the better, main effect of PDO is PNA/EPO which the stronger they go, they stronger our troughs are here on the East Coast. The PDO has steep incline to Winter effect the further in the year you go. Here's the lagged correlation: So Fall PDO is like 2x more important than Spring PDO.

87F with a slight breeze. My house is boiling. Had the ac cranking this morning when I got home from work turned it off huge mistake. Now its struggling to get cool in here with 13 foot ceilings. 78 in the house.

Latest Euro seasonal gets the enhanced coastal precipitation going as early as September.

It is blazing out there but at least the dewpoint isn't in the 70's.

The core of the 30C+ SSTs will probably shift over closer to MJO 7 and Nino 4 as the current forecast would surpass even 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 in those locations. The Euro has Nino 4 exceeding +2.0 which would be a first if it verifies. The previous Nino 4 record was 30.21C and +1.51 back in November 2023. Perhaps some areas could approach +31.0C. Even Nino 3.4 could get close to +30.0 C like in 2015-2016. The Euro has the warm pool east of Japan continuing. The IOD peaks in October and the SSTs near the Maritime Continent begin to rebound by December. So an historic and extensive area of extreme SSTs from the WPAC into the ENSO regions being forecast. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii 2015 11 23.93 2.28 27.95 2.84 30.13 1.44 2023 11 23.73 2.07 27.20 2.10 30.21 1.51

Cell in EC MN moving towards Hinckley has a strong hail sig. Complex moving into N WI. Looks like a miss S for me.

Looks like tonight may miss south too lol. Guess we'll try again on Sunday.

We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect. I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.

Indeed, Don, the Euro’s June prog has the strongest (“monster” as you said) on record. And I agree it’s looking E based. But it’s not currently looking nearly as E based as 97-8 based on peak fall/winter differences between 1+2 and 3.4/4 per the latest Euro. And it’s not even looking as E based as 1982-3 per these same differences.

Currently 90F here, after an overnite low of 59F.

That supercell from Albany to New Haven still has to be one of the most classic left moving supercells on record

70 midday with low 60's dew. Feels good. A little rain has helped with RH levels.

Looks like the humidity arrives next week and will be sticking around

July 10, 1989, virtually no sun in SNE after late morning from a thick high OVC. Didn't matter. BDL went from 68 to 86 no problem and a 10 deg DP rise into the 70s almost all on advection once the warm front passed. A kiddie Scott had no idea a spinner would occur in Brockton that day!

back at ya, sometimes i miss the old days when subs based on geography weren't a thing. ...sometimes