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Gonna be a long week, ain’t it? 13F

This is what I’m worried about Buckeye. EPS and Canadian Emsembles are really hinting at this being a very good possibility with the American on an island that pushes the ridge out yielding colder upper levels. I would prefer no precipitation if a crippling ice storm were to hit large portions of the Carolinas.

It's the same old story.

20 / 14 a total of 5.4 from the 36 hour affair 0.34 LE. Cold to hold overall and outside of Thu surge to the mid/upper 40s it look mainy at or sub freezing through the 29th. The much discussed WAA/overrunning threat 1/25 or a bit earlier. Deep cold (coldest potentially since - we'll see) 1/20, 1/24-1/25 , 1/26 - 1/29. The parallels to 94 continue not exact but clear parallels.

Check please:

Details to be sorted out later, the good news is it's looking highly likely that someone along the East Coast will get a storm this coming weekend. Models will waffle north and south all week. But tbh, I'm feeling really confident for areas I-80 south. These things almost always come north.

They will in a few days. This is an event that is tailor made for AI.

I am going to look at the last 10 years of results and congratulate the fine people of VA Beach on another snow storm. Weenie me.

4.0” OTG in Barnstable, storm even likely closer to 4.5”. Can see a distinct layer of melt at bottom of snow.

The Canadian Parallel is a KU for New England the weekend, I've been looking at it, no idea how it scores, it was one of the first models to catch on to yesterday's potential, that's about all I know about it.. It's experimental, but I read it's taking over for the CMC this year ..

FWIW - the new Canadian (I think it replaces the old in the spring) is light snow -> sleet -> little bit of FRZA. So it’s amped and totally different than the about-to-be-replaced version

The MSL pressure field actually shifted north in the TVA on 6z vs 0z eps. Mostly noise, but the shift was noticeable.

A surprise couple of inches here, stake up to 13”

They such bullcrap. They should be over 10.

The 0z and 6z Euro Ens essentially look the same wrt precip/snowfall at 6z on Sunday, outside of run to run noise. There is no 'trend'. I am going to trust the Euro more overall for this potential event given how crappy the GFS has performed recently. I will lump the AI models in with the GFS/GEFS based on their performance with our recent (mostly Non) event.

We are going to have Phase 8 MJO Slightly negative NAO Deeply negative AO Positive PNA

So pretty

From NWS GSP: “As for the even further out potential system for the weekend, model guidance keeps the high pressure parked over the central part of the country and eventually makes its way into the area. There is much discrepancy and uncertainty if the frontal boundary is able to make anything of the weak moisture return. Friday and Saturday could see a mix of precip but again, its too far out. There is a possibility for a wintry mix as the transition zone and colder air move in. A few of the individual models show a signal for snow, but there is still much uncertainty. Any shift north or south of the potential boundary could be the difference in rain, snow, or nothing at all. And as this location has seen again and again, it`s all a matter of whether or not the cold air can even make it in time. Will continue to monitor as this system is going to change this far out.” So many important caveats in that discussion… .

I'm too young to be looking at porn...

Closeup

That’s what I told my last ex

You're absolutely right, but can we go ahead and pin it too? This week is must see TV! One step short of Kamchatka. I mean could you imagine our board in the week leading up to Kamchatka?!?! . So lets live a little. Its the only weather we got man. And the board is about to be as hyped as it has ever been. Let's pin the thread. Cuz I'm tired of searching for it and its only Monday.

We are going to have Phase 8 MJO Slightly negative NAO Deeply negative AO Positive PNA

Well, we made a valiant effort to comeback, and we finished at 2.7” here at WXW1. A truly gorgeous scene around town.

I don't have snowfall maps, but here is the total qpf for the event.