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18z GEFS are more robust than the op. Better in SE areas. Still buckshot but we stay the course.

That model is horrible!

Theirs will be a good test for both of them…if they get this right, that will be pretty impressive.

Yet we get nothing or did it change

The Event Horizon

Damn Diane, sorry to hear. My daughter has MCAS as well, along with POTS and EDS. One thing she’s learned is to watch for things that trigger a response and try to minimize those thing. No easy task but she’s made strides since being diagnosed.

Ground zero.

Spectacular pics

Regular GFS squishes it like a bug, congrats-ish DC to Cape May. Didn’t even know there was an AI GFS.

I remember 2013-2014 having some rain, but there was persistent cold between systems. The thaws were mostly brief warm sectors, no major Pacific intrusions. The real polar vortex came later.

GTH Outlook Discussion Last Updated - 12/09/25 Valid - 12/17/25 - 12/30/25 Following a very high amplitude Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagation across the Pacific at the end of November, the intraseasonal signal has rapidly weakened as it crossed the Americas and Atlantic in early December and now resides within the unit circle. The strong MJO event was the result of constructive interference between the MJO itself and Kelvin Wave (KW) activity which have become more decoupled in recent days. Long range dynamical model ensembles depict the RMM-based MJO signal generally remaining within the unit circle, with some re-emergence into the Western Hemisphere around the end of week-2. While the GEFS and ECMWF show this evolution to some degree, the CFS is the most robust in its depiction of a more coherent loop of the RMM-based signal which comes out of the unit circle in phases 7 and 8 later in December. Velocity potential filtering indicates a very fast moving enhanced convective signal circumnavigating the globe during the next 2 weeks, despite the lack of an RMM-based signal appearing over the Eastern Hemisphere. However, an experimental projection of objectively filtered KW activity in phase space reveals a continuously circumnavigating signal, which at times constructively and destructively interferes with lower frequency modes. This makes for a rather complex and low confidence Global Tropics Hazards Outlook and is based mainly on La Nina composites and some consideration of dynamical models.

Our average high is 27F Christmas week, so that wouldn't be brutal here, unless accompanied by 2 inches of rain...

Blizzard warnings hoisted in West Virginia.

Let's start by calling the 14th a 'possible event', and leave the word threat for something that actually threatens anything haha

Low temperature of 11F here early this morning.

That temperature should trigger automatic yard time.

the guy "instructing" us why that GFS solution wasn't likely

Agree on the end of month, but disagree on JAN. The best analogs have JAN as the coldest month. So, I think based on the law of averages, we have a decent shot of seeing at least a period of winter in JAN.

What? I don’t know where to start with this.

Fast flow always seems to confuse the models for some reason (probably just not advanced enough yet).

We'll know more in the next couple days where the MJO is going,now is when its getting destructive interference from Rossby/Kelvin Waves

Northwest Flow event Wednesday night/Thursday

IMO this is a classic setup the GFS would win. In La Nina years or any case where you have any heavy northern stream involvement or fast flow if its squashing a system it tends to be right. Its more often owned on Miller As or systems where you've got more southern stream action

Voice of reason