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sorry to burst your bubble or fail to melt the butter on your pocorn. I am still waiting for the major pattern change after May 15th where the sticky comes back and the gulf fetch kicks in. Until then, yes it wil be dry with moisture starved cold fronts passing though every 3 days. The eastern maritime flow is absolultey killing our chances of any significant t storm formation. Western PA has been hammered with nice rainfall the last few weeks with the absence of this flow reaching them.

I don't agree that you don't want the El Nino Strong, as long as it stays west-based. Number of examples is too low, and Stronger La Nina's (opposite) correlate with big SE ridge in the Winter

It would be great if we can finally get some help from the PDO and get the warm bath water out of the western Pacific. That should tamp down the ridiculous Pacific jet but a super Nino will just flood the continent with mild air and overwhelm any other positive trend. We’d have to hope for one huge STJ driven event like Jan 2016 or Feb 1983.

A nuclear bomb wouldn’t kill them, mosquitoes, or ticks.

Today’s Euro Weeklies run is the wettest yet for the SE as a whole for Apr 27-May 3rd with ~1.25-1.75” over much of the area! And as an added bonus, the subsequent week (May 4-10) has a bit of a wetter signal than prior runs had:

I dont really keep track of severe (other than my own daily weather obs), but what I do know is we've had a lot of pretty dull severe seasons, so we were overdue.

Yep good point we are warmer today. And AGW is increasing the frequency of super El Ninos

Probably worse here because they’ll be north of a lot of moisture I think.

You guys have had a good severe season.Last year we was off to a great start until the strong blocking happened into the Aluetians and Bearing Sea,this typically pulls the jet max further north sorta speaking and our severe went dormant which the OV got quite active.Gensini has a good paper written about tropical forcing with Nino compared to NINA,Im starting to think thatall this tropical forcing into the WP earlier mainly from Rossby Waves is playing a part,but this at least seems to changing in which seemingly a CCKW and a Rossby Wave into the East Pac upcomign for a change

i don't how next year we could beat this past winter!

Thanks, snowman. Keep in mind that Paul is comparing to 1997, when global temps were significantly cooler.

^The subsurface orientation this year is further west than most previous Strong Nino's

If this is BTV.. SNE should have a solid next 10. Once past Tuesday https://x.com/tylerjankoski/status/2046001622073971018?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

I do 2 bags of this every year. Amazing stuff. Bag says its made from waste distillery grains from Portsmouth NH. So most likely from some brewery up there? Its not cheap but I'll spend the extra money so my dogs aren't rolling around in chemicals...

“Interestingly, the 28 Degree Isotherm today is close to where it was around the same time in 1997. The maximum temperature in the basin is higher this year. The west Pacific downwelling wave is stronger this year back to the west, in response to the bigger westerly wind event this year next to New Guinea. The 28 degree isotherm is starting to fold down across the east Pacific.”

Jonathan Green? Thats some high end clover seed. You should try throwing down some of their Black Beauty grass seed. I hear the chickens go wild for it..

Man EPS is ugly.

Our Nino winter dream pattern arriving for May https://twitter.com/scweather_wx/status/2045950481189474580?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

What a day makes. A crazy snap back from yesterday to today. After a high of 82 yesterday my high today was 49 degrees! Current temp of 47 degrees with 30s coming soon.

Since the 2012 Arctic ice melt low, we've had a lot of cold season -AO with +NAO.. historically the two are much more correlated. I've found that Summer SLP 60-90N precedes the Winter AO state, although it's a reverse correlation, and the NAO decadal continues to be positive. Since 2011, 20/20 months with NAO value >1.11 in DJFM have all been positive!

I’ll gladly take a healthy and very normal spring frost/freeze in exchange for the local ecosystem/ wildlife benefits. (Invasive species to be exact that can’t handle the cold) I know late spring cold sucks after such a nice stretch of wx but it’s very healthy for the local ecosystem to get spring freezes and frost.

Perfect for killing the black flies: Freeze Warning URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 218 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026 CTZ005>008-NJZ105>108-NYZ067-068-200230- /O.UPG.KOKX.FZ.A.0002.260421T0400Z-260421T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.FZ.W.0002.260421T0400Z-260421T1300Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam- 218 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures from the mid 20s to lower 30s expected. * WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, and Northern New London Counties. In New Jersey, Essex, and Union Counties. In New York, Orange and Putnam Counties. * WHEN...From midnight Monday Night to 9 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

It was 37 before the rain stopped, now it's sunny and 43. Looks like I got .2.

Up at UMass for dinner, sun is out

Extended looks primo with a range of 40-70ish on deck.