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Here in Carlisle at 2:30pm...the temperature has risen quickly to a high so far of 90.9 degrees with a dew point of 75.0 degrees. For the fourth consecutive day the heat index has risen to above 100 degrees at 102.0. It has been at least partly to mostly sunny here for the past few hours after remaining overcast for most of the entire morning. While I am fortunate to not have lost power, I did lose internet (via Comcast) last night around 8:00pm, and it's still out. I'm tethered to my phone for providing temporary internet through T-Mobile.

89F/DP 73F Some stuff popping out to the W. Earlier than the previous 2 days at this time...

Jeez. I’ve had ~2” total since June 1st.

Yeah, I need it to drift a little NW. nothing here at the house except outflow, so far.

We had several hours of bright sun but it's now clouded over.

101.1 and rain dissipating as it gets closer.

Right. My point was, whether it's a flash flood or just multiple days of moderate rainfall, it takes time for larger rivers to respond.

Dews have to be in the 70s.

I would have loved to have seen some rain. Less than a quarter inch here.

When the dew point is below freezing, does a sling psychrometer still function properly? I would think the wet bulb would ice up. That would both release latent heat and reduce evaporation, thus distorting the wet bulb measurement, no?

Pawling and Patterson got obliterated last night. No power here. The CVS had lines blow onto the roof and the entire building burned to the ground. Things are pretty rough up here after last night. Take a look at some of the photos from Pawling especially.

Bright overcast (no sun) all day here in both Allentown and Tamaqua. The humidity is awful though.

Frankly, I hope you're right bc a record canonical El Niño is theoretically better for east coast winter enthusiasts than a hybrid MC oriented event. That being said, I'm not ready to bite off on that yet.

I’ve seen lots of pinks and purples on QPF maps for awhile and the ground truth has been lacking

Euro almost pulls the rug ... priceless if so. It actually does for N of the Pike almost entirely on this run. I was gonna say ... another mitigating factor is that the models seem to over-amplify everything they ever handle these days that's beyond 48 hours. This is repeatingly bearing out in results ... yet, funny, so few ever mention this when the next catastrophic model Rembrandt pushes the d-drip button. LOL Seriously though, there seems to a built in automatic attenuation. Whatever they've been pimping in the middle and extended range [enter goober here], either partial Charlie Browning if not a miss. While that's going on ... I'm separately leery anyway, whenever the models attempt to hone a mesobeta scale ( between meso and synoptic - ) sized region like this, middle range or not. If that's not all enough, why? There's almost nothing in the height evolution at 500 mb that suggests anything at all should be going on underneath... yet all hell's going nuts and no one's raising an eye-brow. Okay... I'll go along, but if this It's a trigger happy air mass with lingering PWAT in the region and a shallow boundary offering a reason to lift. It's got that goin for it. It may not need a lot of forcing to rain disproportionately heavy

WPC Days 1 to 3. I would rejoice for this.

Parts of Bergen County got hit with what they think was a micoburst in Paramus and oradell. Its so gross out.

Of course, anything that can go wrong, will go wrong. Flood watch ?

Harmless if you dont bother it. Really cool to see though.

Yeah, saw that before. Heading over in a few mins

12z guidance suggests today we’re too far south and tomorrow too far north.

I want to clarify, it’s not that parameters are even bad. It’s more so a “meh” environment compared to the powderkeg yesterday was. Do agree that outflow boundaries could help out too.

Looks like a decent storm to the south of Hickory currently.

Big heat is gone for now and we quickly turn our attention to an unusual summer setup. Weak high to the north, a weak low to the south, and an all-important warm front which will wring out PWATs of 1.5-2.0" between late tonight and Tuesday. Flood watches are up for CT, which may be expanded depending on where the axis of heaviest rain sets up. Ensemble guidance has a heavy rain signal Some high resolution guidance goes wild. The main takeaway is that while there may be a sizable area of meaningful rain (my forecast is 2-4 generally for CT) there is high end localized flash flooding potential where the warm front sets up. Most models have been fairly consistent in focusing the heaviest general and localized rain in SNE. For most, the mitigating factors here are 1) Outside of the axis of heaviest rain this is likely to be a spread out rainfall over many hours rather than short burst deluge and 2) antecedent conditions have been relatively dry, though many in CT have seen rain in recent days. Let's discuss. Let's flood.

Have my brother coming to pick up my dog in a half hour Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk