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For those looking for some hope to cling to, I wouldn't sleep on 2009–10 as at least a partial analog. Obviously, the magnitude isn't comparable if 2026 continues toward the upper end of current forecasts, so I'm not arguing these are ENSO twins. But there are some interesting similarities in the evolution. 2009 transitioned fairly quickly out of La Niña/neutral conditions into a developing El Niño, with the atmosphere increasingly coupling during late summer/fall. By September 2009, we were seeing suppressed convection around Indonesia, anomalous convection farther east, and increasingly established low-level westerly wind anomalies. There are some similarities to what we're seeing now in the atmospheric response, even though 2026 is running much hotter. What interests me more than matching Niño 3.4 numbers is where the forcing ultimately establishes itself and what kind of North American response we get from it. 2009–10 ultimately produced a very favorable southern storm track along with a much more cooperative high-latitude pattern. For those of us in the Tennessee Valley, that combination delivered a legitimately cold, snowy winter. Obviously we can't analog the NAO/AO in September, and 2026 could evolve into something structurally quite different. But if the eastern-Pacific warmth becomes less dominant relative to continued central/east-central Pacific warming, and the tropical forcing/convection begins consolidating farther west, I think 2009–10 becomes increasingly interesting as a pattern/evolution analog, even if it's a poor magnitude analog. So no, I'm not calling for a repeat of 2009–10. But I wouldn't toss it because this Niño is stronger, either. Analog the evolution and atmospheric response, not just the ONI. There may be more there than the raw ENSO numbers suggest. Then again, hope floats.

Yes he was hanging out with me last night while I was cooking on the Blackstone

Rivers up here near Townshend are bone fucking dry... Damn Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Spotted lantern flies? Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Feb is too dry though. Next

Wild ending Real?

Done with the Os after the lame effort in Denver against a patsy. Told you everything you already knew. Hoping for a house cleaning, but probably won't happen. Time to focus on the King. NFL baby!

Haven’t had any here all summer. Just gentle lantern flies

Exactly

Stein got the skeeters here

Every time

Took a little longer, until early afternoon for the drier air to reach my part of NJ but the mid and late afternoon turned out really pleasant with lots of sun, a breeze, lowering dews and temperatures right around 80.

WTF does that have to do with South America?

Feel bad for Baez. It's another no offense for Baez night

Today's Highs: PHL: 89 EWR: 88 New Brnswck: 88 ACY: 88 BLM: 88 JFK: 86 * no intra hour highs LGA: 86 TTN: 86 TEB: 85 NYC: 84 ISP: 84

My new favorite app is MapQuest- this seems to work as well as Google maps. I remember the days of printing MapQuest sheets out for college and work trips, so I’m enjoying the revival.

60's and overcast today with a Lake breeze. Some improvement this weekend before more rain enters the picture.

I don’t think I’ve seen or heard one flying around this year. Fruit flies on the other hand, goddamn!

It is

Yeah Oahu, which should be far enough east to avoid strong onshore flow from the circulation will likely see some of the biggest south swell it has seen in decades. Waikiki will likely look like the famed north shore during big winter swells. Captured fetch is really the key to maximize swell generation in a hurricane. It aligns the big three, wind speed, duration and fetch.

Was outside for 2 seconds and started getting destroyed by mosquitos

If that even comes close to verifying, uhhhhh f**k yeah!