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This isn’t what we want for the bulk of New England. Seasonal cold and dry, especially in northern New England. Once this -NAO gets entrenched it could even result in N, to AN in Northern and eastern sections of New England. In a La Niña this is something we should be vigilante against as tendency into January is dry up here. The main takeaway is this will send most storm tracks south. I’d be watching intently in mid Atlantic, down to Virginia.

-AO - WPO - PNA - NAO is a pattern where storms moving across the midsection get sheared out and could develop into NE storms.

Christmas Day showers on the euro AI.

17 degrees this morning. No fog this morning, but I think all the road salt on the roads helped the black ice situation some.

2-5” type deal Tuesday . That’s our shot

I know it’s fantasy, but it’s nice to see the show up on the euro.. Maybe the pattern can flip back early January

No, just me ha ha.

There will likely be some model chaos(and even real time chaos) w/ two strong and very opposite teleconnections IF they verify. The Aleutians Ridge and -NAO are not going to play well together. I suspect we end up w/ a very similar pattern to what we exited, but the pattern force south of where it was due to the NAO and seasonal climatology. It seems like the Yukon will be cold and will send cold air southeast into a suppressed storm track. I do think ridges will roll through between cold shots. But we roll the dice and take our chances if that is indeed the setup. Suppressed storm tracks with cold involved...we take. The nice thing is that most of the models are eliminating feedback over the Pacific Northwest, and we can see what is a reasonable pattern unfolding. Infinite Baja lows and Pac NW lows.... I guess the question I have now is if there is feedback w/ the Aleutians low and maybe the NAO? Those are two other areas where models will sometimes under-do and over-do things.

So what you are saying is “No one’s ever seen anything like it”?

Holiday period is looking exciting. Lots of s/w’s and clippers in the flow and repeating tracks. Someone might get a 1 2 punch within short order. LFG!

Yep, ice everywhere this morning.

The -NAO is the story if it unfold the way modeling has shown it for the past 48 hours. I don't think it will mean a trough 100% of the time over the EC, but it "could" force the storm track well south as we have see on overnight runs. The 0z Euro and now 6z GFS.....what a turn of events.

Yes it is... Torch no longer in the cards!!!

That will be one thick pack of ice when it refreezes.

Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) has demolished the old record for lowest start to December. That record was set just last year.

Enjoy the last day of snow today. There's still about 4"......bare lawn tomorrow afternoon. At least we have this. Friday Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then rain likely. High near 56. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Weeklies saying we have to wait doesn’t mean I was waiting

Yikes, current P&C has about 1.5” of rain for tomorrow. Keeps going up

Already have seen this same retrogression of said ridge axis 2 other times in the past couple of weeks. LR ridge in OV ends up verifying out in the Western Plains/Eastern Rockies. Nice to see.

That image screams for this.

Ridge keeps backing up west!!!

Literally yesterday some of you were talking about waiting until the back half of January lol

As long as we're not in the orange or red lol

6z gfs showing a little bit of everything for that period. It will be interesting to see how this evolves or not.