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Problem is the evidence and history..Every Super Nino has lead to warmer than normal temps. But that doesn't mean it can't snow. Just prolonged winter weather is unlikely. I remember 1972,1982,1997 and 2015. Not fun,but we did get blizzards in 83 and 2016.

You know, interestingly, in the past thirty or so minutes since posting that, the old inner circulation or nascent core is getting absorbed by a strong band that is intensifying. That is what you want to see if you want strengthening, but it needs to wrap around to become a proto-eyewall feature. At any rate, such a strong band should be resulting in a significant expansion of convection / cold cloud burst on satellite soon.

looking forward to a couple rainy benchmark nor'easters.

They've increased 20 kts in last 20 minutes in SW part of circulation. This could be the much-awaited strengthening showing up. Definitely something to watch. Some 50-55 kt barbs showing up now. Once again I think H is too much to ask for but this likely does strengthen into LF as a mod-strong TS

August 2026 at DCA tied for the 14th warmest August in DC history with an average temperature of 80.1 degrees -- 0.7 above the 1991-2020 normal. June-August 2026 at DCA was the 8th warmest meteorological summer in DC history with an average temperature of 79.8 degrees -- 1.4 above the 1991-2020 normal. January -August 2026 at DCA was about the 19th warmest first eight months in DC history with an average temperature of 61.4 degrees. August 2026 precipitation at DCA totaled 4.27 inches, 1.02 above the 1991-2020 August normal of 3.25 inches. For the first eight months of 2026, DCA precipitation totaled 21.56 inches, 6.35 below the 1991-2020 normal of 27.91 and the 22nd dryest in DC history. However, IAD precipitation totaled 29.40 inches, 0.18 above the 1991-2020 normal of 29.22 inches.

Yup

New month, new obs. Post them here.

Finally back to .500 and 1/2 game out. I know it is a very long shot of the Orioles making the playoffs, but they are fun to watch right now. September is a burtal schedule.

Does look like though some stronger velocities being sampled by LCH

Wednesday and Thursday could be legit ENH or MOD for someone in the Northeast or Mid Atlantic.

Look at the latest radar, it seems the small inner "eyewall" has almost dissipated like in an ERC and you have a larger center taken over. But even that larger center is not closed off w/ precip and looks like a fairly strong dry slot is wrapping in. Look like it is coming in from the SE, and we had the increase in shear apparent from the ESE earlier this morning, so that may be pushing the dry air into the core.

Quite the jog south by the core in recent radar frames. It looks like the stronger connection to the south may have given it a tug. It’s probably a wash at this point, but that may have bought it an extra hour or two.

Think this one had some sticker shock to Wx Twitter being it has had a very impressive radar appearance for a weak system but clearly it is still not a mature circulation and is in the formative stages. Given 1 more day this would 100% become a hurricane and possibly more, but the jump from TD to hurricane organization wise is huge. IR paints the real picture here where there is no sustained core. It’s close but out of time. 50kts remains my call. Personally I am shocked NHC went with a hurricane watch

May the N Y Metropolitans warm up as the cold season approaches. As always …..

I think the it is a case of "modelization"as I like to call it. Too much reliance on models. Yes, modelling has come a long way, and the HAFS has shown excellent skill since it was operational 2 years ago, but you can't assume it always will do a good job, and you have to actually look at hard observation data first and foremost, and when that contradicts a model, the path is clear you need to adjust your fcst and messaging. I have notice close to a landfall, NHC rarely backs off on wording they have prior b/c they do not want the public to let their guard down. But this promotes the "cry wolf" problem b/c the threat is overstated and not adjusted for reality, Our in situ and remote observations have come so far and better than ever, yet we still seem to cling to "better safe than sorry" or "err on the side of caution." Overdoing it has real costs, like economic for business and commerce and the cost or evacuations and preparations in general. So it is in our best interest to try to fine tune our forecasts more and take advantage of all our advances, and I get the impression we are not doing that fully, at least not w/ the messaging when it comes to certain TC situations.

Because there won’t be any snow .. anywhere

You’ll still slant your way due to “easterly winds….radar doesn’t see the snow..”

Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (2010) NYC: 97 (1953) LGA: 96 (2010) JFK: 92 (2012) Lows: EWR: 50 (1934) NYC: 51 (1869) LGA: 55 (1967) JFK: 54 (1985) Historical: 1859: One of the largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred on this day in 1859. 1862: The Battle of Ox Hill (or Chantilly) is also known as the only major Civil War battle to have been fought during a storm. “A severe thunderstorm erupted, resulting in limited visibility and an increased dependence on the bayonet, as the rain soaked the ammunition of the infantry and made it useless.” From Taylor, Paul. He Hath Loosed the Fateful Lightning: The Battle of Ox Hill (Chantilly), September 1, 1862. 1869: Cleveland Abbe issued the first Weather Bulletin for the city of Cincinnati, Ohio. It contained a few observations telegraphed from distant observers and the “probabilities” for the next day. The bulletin was written by hand. 1894 - A forest fire driven by high winds burned down the town of Hinkley, MN, killing 418 persons. (David Ludlum) 1894: The Great Hinckley Fire, which burned an area of at least 200,000 acres or perhaps more than 250,000 acres including the town of Hinckley, Minnesota occurred on this day. The official death count was 418 though the actual number of fatalities was likely higher. 1897 - Hailstone drifts six feet deep were reported in Washington County, IA. (The Weather Channel) 1914 - The town of Bloomington, MI, was deluged with 9.78 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (31st-1st) (The Weather Channel) 1928: Leslie Gray from the Weather Bureau in San Franciso was the first weather forecaster to be deployed to a wildfire. 1935: The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane began intensifying from a tropical storm early in the day to a Category 2 by the end of this day. Over the next 24 hours the cyclone would go through "bombogenesis" intensifying to a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds estimated at 160 mph with gusts exceeding 200 mph. This was the first Category 5 storm to hit the U.S. The records aren't good enough to say whether any earlier storms that hit the USA would be Category 5 by today's standards. (Ref. Jack Williams, USA Today.com) 1939: Lightning hit and killed 837 sheep bedded down for the night on top of Pine Canyon in Northwestern Utah. Both the sheep and the earth were wet from the passing thunderstorm, causing the lightning's electrical discharge to move completely through the herd. The sheepherder was in a tent, was knocked temporary unconscious but escaped death. (Ref. National Weather Service in Utah Lightning Information) 1950: Palm Springs, CA set their all-time September high temperature record with 121°. Other daily record highs included: Yuma, AZ: 123°, Phoenix, AZ: 116°, Las Vegas, NV: 113°, Sacramento, CA: 108°, Tucson, AZ: 107°, Stockton, CA: 105°, Bishop, CA: 104°, Winnemucca, NV: 101°, Winslow, AZ: 99°, Reno, NV: 99°, Elko, NV: 97° and Ely, NV: 93°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1952: A cold front brought damaging winds to Fort Worth, Texas, including the Carswell Air Force Base where thirty-five B-36 planes received damage. The anemometer indicated 90 mph winds before being smashed by debris. 1953: A heat wave that began in late August continued into early September continued across parts of the Midwest. Platteville, WI & South Bend, IN recorded their hottest September temperatures with 100° and 99° respectively. Fort Wayne, IN & Muskegon, MI tied their all-time September high temperature record with 100° & 95°. Other daily record highs included: Goshen, IN: 101°, Grand Rapids, MI: 97°, Lansing, MI: 96°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1955 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, soared to an all-time high of 110 degrees during an eight day string of 100 degree weather. (David Ludlum) 1961: An F4 tornado traveled through parts of Butler and Bremer Counties in Iowa. Unfortunately, there is limited information in the Storm Data entry about this event. Per Thomas Grazulis in Significant Tornadoes, the tornado began NW of Dumont and ended NE of Horton. Several farms along the path were "leveled". It was reported at one farm that fruit jars were "sucked out of the basement" after the house was swept away. There were 7 injuries reported with this event and zero fatalities. 1974: Lt. Judy Neuffer became the first female to fly a Hurricane Hunter aircraft through the eye of a hurricane. 1979 - A home in Centerville TN was hit by lightning and totally destroyed. It marked the third time that the house had been hit by lightning since being built in 1970. (The Weather Channel) 1983: Record heat gripped parts of the northern Rockies. Several locations recorded record highs for September including: Miles City, MT: 106°, Billings, MT: 103° and Sheridan, WY: 103°. At Billings, it was the 8th consecutive day with high temperatures above 90°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1985: Erratic Hurricane Elena baffled forecasters and Gulf Coast residents on the Sunday before Labor Day. The Hurricane had threatened the central Gulf Coast on Friday, only to turn east and spend Saturday menacing the Tampa Bay area with high winds, tides and heavy rains. By lunchtime Sunday, Elena was on the move again, but this time back to the west. The storm reached its minimum pressure of 951 millibars or 28.08 inches of mercury while the storm was 75 miles south of Apalachicola, FL. Elena's maximum reported coastal winds were over Dauphin Island, AL, where sustained winds of 105 mph with gusts to 135 mph were reported. Other maximum gusts reported ranged from 120 mph at Gulfport, MS, to 92 mph at Pensacola, FL. Maximum tides of 10 feet above normal were recorded at Apalachicola, FL, with reports of 6 to 8 feet above normal on Dauphin Island, AL. Approximately 1 million people were evacuated from low lying coastal areas during Elena’s approach. This large evacuation contributed to the fact that there were no deaths in the area of landfall. The four deaths which occurred resulted from falling trees and automobile accidents. One resident died of a heart attack. Total damage ranged from $1 to $1.5 billion dollars.(David Ludlum) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1987 - Cool Canadian air invaded the Midwest. Six cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Indianapolis IN with a reading of 44 degrees. Hot weather continued in the northwestern U.S. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Hanover WA, where the mercury soared to 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Upper Mississippi Valley. Ely, MN, was drenched with three inches of rain in two hours, and pelted with one inch hail. The heavy rain flooded streets and basements, and the high water pressure which resulted blew the covers off manholes. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in Oklahoma during the late afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms produced hail two inches in diameter west of Arapahoe, and wind gusts to 70 mph at Luther and south of Harrah. Early morning thunderstorms over Indiana drenched Kokomo with five to eight inches of rain, and spawned a tornado which injured three persons at Bruce Lake. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1999: Erratic Dennis was downgraded to a Tropical Storm as he drifted aimlessly just off Cape Hatteras, NC. Dennis would move southward, then northwestward before making landfall on the 4th with winds of 70 mph. Dennis' heavy rains would set the stage for massive flooding when Hurricane Floyd arrived a few weeks later. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2002: Across southern California, a heat wave sent temperatures soaring to 118° at Dulzura, 113° at Temecula, and 112° at Riverside and Menifee. Temperature gradients were remarkable near the coast. It was 77° at Newport Beach and 107° in Santa Ana, only ten miles difference, 72° in Oceanside Harbor and 87° in Oceanside Airport, only two miles difference, 81° in Sea World to 91° in San Diego - Lindbergh Field, only three miles difference. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2003: By midnight, Indianapolis, IN recorded its wettest day on record with 7.20 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2008: Hurricane Gustav was the second most destructive hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm was the seventh tropical cyclone, third hurricane, and second major hurricane of the season. Gustav caused serious damage and casualties in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba and the United States. Gustav caused at least $6.6 billion (2008 USD) in damages. Gustav triggered the largest evacuation in United States history up to 2008. Once into the Gulf, Gustav gradually weakened because of increased wind shear and dry air. It weakened to a Category 2 hurricane late on August 31, and remained at that intensity until landfall on the morning of September 1 near Cocodrie, Louisiana. In total, an estimated 153 deaths had been attributed to Gustav in the U.S. and Caribbean. 2017: The temperature at Downtown San Francsico reached 106° setting their all-time record high. The previous record was 103° on June 14th, 2000.

74 / 73 mainly cloudy and passing areas of light rain to north. The heat wont make it through the mainly cloudy skies here despite the ridge and 850 MB temps >18c the next 2 days. Any breaks in the clouds could see temps spike to the upper 80s. Weekend is onshore flow dry and hoping its sunny but temps in the 70s to low 80s inland. (9/8) Beyond there overall near to above normal .

So, he created a fairy tale on video. As I provided a link and full context to the article he referenced, there's no need to comment further on his video.

For some odd reason it seems many are trying to will this thing into strengthening. I made a post about this in the SNE form yesterday but on Twitter (since Sunday really) there's been nothing but posts from many people trying to find any reason to justify its strengthening and taking off. I mean sure this has become better organized better structurally over the past few days but is a 40 mph storm lol. Its been nothing but posts about satellite presentation, convection and how "the look means its strengthening". Weird

He's flailing in a desperate attempt hold onto an unsustainable explanation. First, he claimed that it was an earthquake, even hours after the USGS revealed that the glacial collapse and debris flow triggered the shaking. Then it was past earthquakes that led to destabilization. Now he spins the latest development hoping to evade any climate links, but only exposing his lack of knowledge of both climate and geological processes. As noted yesterday, frost-wedging can lead to a fracturing, disintegration, and breaking of rock over time. Water finds its way into cracks and microfissures and expands as it freezes. The ice then melts when temperatures warm. This repeated cycle eventually causes larger cracks to develop and, ultimately, the rock to split or break. The warming climate in the high alpine regions of the Himalayas has accelerated this form of rock weathering. Finally, notice that he didn't provide a link to the actual story. He wanted to limit his audience to his opinion, depriving them of the full contents. Here's why: the story goes on to state: Mountain geographer Alton Byers of the University of Colorado Boulder has linked the disaster to climate change. He said permafrost, which has helped hold together high-altitude rock, ice, soil and glaciers for thousands of years, is weakening and becoming increasingly unstable. However, Cook and Shugar have not established a direct link between global warming and the bedrock failure. While they believe permafrost is melting and may be contributing to the destabilisaton of mountain slopes, they said further analysis is needed to determine the precise cause of the collapse. In sum, the article he references to dismiss any link to climate change actually does not rule out the role of climate change. All said, based on the full body of evidence and the insights from existing literature, climate change likely played a role, probably through a cascading set of complex processes (glacial melt, rock weathering, permafrost melt, etc.). Its precise role remains to be determined. The least likely scenario is zero impact from climate change. Further analysis will provide greater insight.

The southern semicircle of the circulation continues to improve. However, the NE quadrant has simultaneously deteriorated on radar. I'm doubting we're going to see any significant intensification prior to landfall at this point, though there is still time for some further pressure fall and marginal increase in winds. A moderate 50-55 kt TS still seems quite possible, but a borderline hurricane would be surprising at this point. We would need to see nascent eyewall or core band developing, and that doesn't seem to be occurring. We've got, what, six hours remaining, give or take an hour?

The CanSIPS monthly model run recently came out for September and it is still indicating lower heights generally in December thru March centering generally in lower Mississippi valley-----extending east. What is interesting is the last 3 runs or so have lowered heights some in the same general area. What that means at this point? Hard to say, but if you also look at precip for same period, it continues to show a possible active storm track, which includes the Carolinas.