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gotta pass the spring barrier. this is like a 10 day EPS forecast but for ENSO at this point in the year

This is really going to be fascinating to watch. If we didn’t have that very strong Nino in 23-24, I think I would be fully on board for a super Nino this year. If we would have had a strong Nina in the last two years I might even be reluctantly on board. However, since we never get such a strong Nino so close in years, it just makes me feel like something is going to fail that the models can’t see right now. In 2022 we even had the MEI get down to something like -2.2 which made a rebound strong Nino seem likely. We have nothing like that this year.

Happy Easter to the forum members! Hopefully it’s a joyous one. We have the successful rescue in Iran of a downed U.S. airman to help celebrate it. Also, Happy Passover! One more warm humid day before a several day cooldown with highs in the upper 60s or low 70s. But before that, I’m hoping for sone good rainfall amounts later today and this evening as it is extremely dry here.

I'm currently having a discussion with the same voices about a winter grade. Dick and I personally think that it deserves a higher grade then the C I'll be giving it, but It's 5 against 2, and I can't take the screaming anymore.

And speaking of Adley...how about HIS start to the season? I'm starting to see the Adley of 2022-June 2024. Now Mayo...I think we need to give the bat a little more time. Now once the offense heats up and he still isn't hitting by middle of the year...then yeah that might be a problem. Defensively he seemed to be making strides until yesterday, lol

Wow….

sure sure. Enjoy

N. Pacific is ENSO's greatest correlation East-based shifts the Canadian ridge more east

That's my concern 2023...but then again, I'm not sure winter enthusiasts would feen any better if the RONI and ONI were in lock-step.

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/NJSnow-09Apr96.png April 9-10th 1996. Mostly a Suffolk event

Most extreme March NAO on record, +2.69. The composite is actually a cooler May, when rolled forward. Just interesting - look at all this equilateral warmth later in the year, correlating with March +NAO

Previous most extreme for March was -2.47 in 1962

I just had a lengthy discussion with the voices in my head about this. We completely agree , but only because people are weird. A normal person likes their winter days around 0℉ and summer days close to the century mark. .

.45 rain from this mornings event. I wasn't expecting that much, I thought maybe I'd get 2 tenths. But it is needed as we enter the growing season.

Hello from Key West everyone. Breezy and 81 degrees. And I don’t say that as an FU to anyone in the northeast currently

What was that Easter in the 90s where it was warm and sunny and the next day we got like a foot of snow?

ASS+

Parent's day in late July looks good. Might even be a little chilly in the morning hrs, especially in the N areas.

4th of July looks iffy for some with a front moving through bringing shwrs/stms.

Had a 31 MPH gust with the baby shelf and then it was over. Instantly calm. Some decent rain incoming. 62F YouCut_20260405_122538730.mp4

The SW, US heat ridge, spreading east through the Midwest, Tenn valley, and Mid Atlantic makes more sense!

Heavy rain here. 55 degrees

I'm losin'it...

Amazing you have anything. Different world from here.

Back in 2023-2024 there was a pretty big spread between ONI and RONI. The ONI peaked at +2.1 C and the RONI at +1.5 C .Yet the 500 mb pattern across the Northern Tier and Canada was similar to 1997-1998 with the CONUS setting the warmest winter on record. Perhaps the weaker RONI was related to the lack of a robust Nino trough across Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and weaker Aleutian Low. Plus we got a big global temperature super El Niño baseline jump even higher than 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. Also note the global temperatures hardly fell in 2025.