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That seems to be the story of the next few days. Efficient, but hit or miss rainfall.

We’re not that bad, but the extended looks bleak…esp up here.

I was joking but yea your half of the county cannot catch a break. I was right there with you until the last two days though. The best news though is the heaviest rain just keeps targeting the falls lake watershed over and over again. It has come up over 6 inches over last two days which is a ton of water added to the reservoir and completely offset all losses from the heatwave and most of the last month

Nearly everyone I know who lives in NH is praying for rain. I know 2 families who are having watered delivered out of fear that their wells are on the verge of running out of water. The frequency of droughts and the contaminated ground water is going to lead to more and more cities/towns having to install public water systems.

We need to get a good rain event in here ASAP

lol don’t ever change

I don't know how reliable the Severe Weather Europe site is but like the read on the upcoming winter forecast for the polar vortex. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-forecast-data-el-nino-polar-vortex-disruption-united-states-canada-europe-winter-2026-2027-fa/

Still nothing lol. Today looks like another dry day. Maybe tomorrow I'll get something. Early next week looks great. Manageable temps and humidity along with some sunshine. Might as well get some nice weather since it's not going to rain.

More than I got, lol. 2.14” closest to me. here are the Cocorahs sites around me.

2.64

A refreshing low of 63. Time to catch the choo choo.

This event is in runaway strengthening. The subsurface warmth is just as crazy as the surface warmth in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. And we are about to see a barrage of TC’s that are just going to keep reinforcing the WWBs/westerlies and DWKWs. That 30C isotherm is going to reach 140W easily this fall…

Region 3.4 record-breaking: Region 1+2 also off the charts, the only El Niño event in history that was warmer in 1+2 at this point in time was 1997 and it wasn’t warmer by much

1.15” imby from approx 10pm Tues to 6am Wed. 2.93” in July so far.

Will be home brew

We finally got under one of those nearly stationary cells. I think 0.8-1” or so between 10pm and this morning.

The 2.75 inches yesterday appears to be the largest rainfall since December 2023. Even that was over a 2 day period. Used AI so it might not be 100% correct. Soaker for sure.

68 degrees for the low. The river up here took a 4 foot jump. Not exactly sure where the rain came from. We have had less than a 1/2”

Well I was correct there. Look at srn CT to FMH. That’s where the fun was.

I wanted to follow up on a post I did last night. Some details here that may not be so apparent to all, and this evolving pattern provides a good example how it's not "one-size-fits-all" for a given pattern and sensible wx. The details count and help quantify a fcst better. In this case, it will not be the same as the pattern we had last week w/ the snow in the Northern Rockies and big heat in the East, despite a strong 500 ridge fcst. I attached a GIF loop of the GFS 500H/V for the next 10 days. You can see the ridge axis/center that forms so far N, you actually get tropical-type easterlies across the srn half of the CONUS and westward moving disturbances. Not tropical waves per se, just weak 500 lows. The first shows up over KS/MO/OK at 96 hr and then moves W under the ridge to the Central Rockies where it merges w/ a vort center that is stuck within the ridge, and then it all ends up moving N and then E around the top of the ridge. And then look at about 156 hr on the SC/GA coast, a small 500 low develops moves W and eventually ends up over srn NM. In this case, despite the 600 dm ridge, this is not classic big heat pattern for the CONUS. It's tropical and unstable w/ easterlies across the srn 1/2 of the CONUS and in the Rockies, despite ridging aloft, weak disturbances are embedded w/ a lot of mid-level RH present. So this means considerable amounts of diurnal RW/TRW, which keeps temps from getting really hot, and is why the 850 temps avg slightly below normal across the srn 1/2 of the CONUS (150 hr ECM 850 anomalies attached) Also, and I failed to mention this yesterday, yes, it is large and strong ridge, but also a *broad* W to E ridge and wavelengths are not sharp, unlike what happened last week. Not all ridges of high pressure are alike, but some act like that. Seriously, one well-known TV met actually has said, "two heat domes will merge and become one large one next week." As if that means anything as to more extreme temps? That's not how it works for high pressure. This person is trying to force the notion that when two low pressure merge (like a ET low and TC), it works the same for high pressure, and thus an end product more intense. Vapid and linear thinking, preying on public ignorance. Ppl just making things up now for hype! The "two heat domes" that will "merge" mentioned above. If you look at the 500 over the CONUS now, they are typical subtropical 500 highs you would find in mid-summer, one over the Desert SW and another one near the Bahamas. So every ridge of high pressure that has climo hot wx is a heat dome now pushed as unusual? And these two subtropical highs, look at the 500 evolution, there is no sign of any "merging" here. I know I have said stuff along these lines before, but I wanted to share another example of how statements on wx just keep devolving more into slop, and at the same time, point out for the ppl on the forum here some of the finer points of a ridge pattern in this case that from a bird's eye view, it many looks the same, but upon closer look, there are important differences that make for different sensible wx.

I think stuff like this is where past analogs could fall short. This basically has never happened, so while I wouldn't say past analogs have no utility we have to be careful to not oversubscribe what we know. We may well see equatorial convection further east than has ever been seen, and so forcing will be uniquely far to the east as well. My comment isn't being directed at you btw, just in general, a caution for all.

Received 0.24 down here today - first since Saturday- for a " event " total of 0.68.... Awesome, love Montana/Wyoming - drove through the two states once in late April 2021 on a around the country road trip ... Got to see one place that always fascinated me as a kid growing up as a American history buff trying to picture the scene in my mind - Little Bighorn , Custer's last stand battlefield... Drove south on 191 out of Bozeman through West Yellowstone along the Gallatin River toward Idaho- Most amazing views - incredible almost unreal scenic road...