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There’s no evidence that this Nino won’t heat up more. I don’t think anyone said that here. If they did, I would have said they were wrong. But there’s plenty of evidence that it likely won’t heat up as much as the really wildly strong models have/had been showing because of the nearly flat most of August vs the model consensus having progged another sharp warning in Aug similar to July.

Shear is low and is forecasted to remain low on the area of the Bahamas, where the SSTs are also around record highs. If a system can get there, there's no reason why it can't blow up like Andrew or Dorian did in that area.

Most likely. Gfs went from a strong atlantic low to nothing like the euro. Hurricane season sucks in El Ninos. Maybe homebrew storms but dont count on it.

I think it's based on climo and an east based nino. Granted who knows what will happen-not many saw last year's persistent cold and 200% of normal snowfall for the northeast.

Not a good sign when everyone is punting 30% - 50% of winter in, checks notes, August.

In all seriousness…the videos coming out of Nepal are unreal. Legitimately unreal. There’s very little you can do in a situation like that. So sad.

The cruelty of the upcoming pattern is getting a taste of fall with football on the horizon but getting hells front porch at the actual kickoff next weekend. I’ll be in Boone. Idk how you folks who go down to Clemson, Columbia, Raleigh or Greenville survive but I respect it!

I need to consider a snowmobile now that I have SLK as an option in the winter. A lot of trails up here.

Commie

I made a winter purchase yesterday too! Bought a new sled for my nephew, he has an August bday but is obsessed with sledding. Never too early to prepare

Didn't the CFS forecast the El Nino to collapse as we enter winter?

I've noted/hypothesized an aspect that's similar to that... Heat in the summers appears to be inducing a resonance feedback that is favoring ridging around the windward sides of continents. Some ridging is favored in these regions at all times, due to basal westerlies encountering boundary layer resistance as the flow encroaches land. It "piles" backward against ... en masse the flow rises over, then deflects N over time, due to upward motion then being worked over by Coriolis. This base tendency is the Perennial North American Pattern, which features a modest ridge over the west that settles out to a quasi trough/nadir as the westerlies are leaving the eastern continent. But the heat expands heights; then superimposed that over the PNAP, the two are in resonance (constructive) feedback). Similarly this is found around Europe to the Urals. The intense/intensifying seasonal heat flux due to CC is then adding to this synergistic resonance. It's quite intuitive and convincingly related to why heat/ridging retrogrades so rapidly whenever we see it episodically blossom over N/A ... Why also western and mid Europe are cooking with increasing frequency during warm seasons... This idea appears to be a deeper dive where the aggregation from these quadratures becomes the CGT bias field. Higher heat enhances drying, again ... more constructive feedback. So the CGT is created to atone for the observable biases.

For results of July. Please post below September Forecasts

The front comes through on Friday, anything tomorrow would be pre-frontal trough related. Hudson Valley to the CT River will see scattered storms develop during the afternoon, perhaps evolving into multiple lines but there won't be much in the way of west-to-east progression, will be more southwest-to-northeast so probably will see some flash flooding where storms train...probably within the CT River Valley and Naugatuck Valley (should start mentioning them too for future reference because of the rate they flood in these setups).

Yesterday tomorrow had potential, now it’s mainly a dry fropa. Pass

Cellular bag phone $49, it says call Randy on the scroller.

Fox 29 in Philly posted the below graphic for Philadelphia at the PHL Airport regarding "heat wave" days. I have also posted the same analysis for Chester County since 2020. Of note 10 of the Chester County stations have had the same or less than the 7 heat waves at PHL this year over the entire decade of the 2020's!

August 26 1915: Unseasonably cold air leads to killing frosts across Minnesota, with a low of 23 degrees at Roseau. For Wednesday, August 26, 2026 1864 - A train running from Cincinnati to Chicago was derailed by a tornado in Dearborn County, Indiana, or 75 miles southeast of Indianapolis. Two passenger cars were lifted from the tracks and dropped in a ravine which injured 30 people. 1883 - Krakatoa Volcano exploded in the East Indies. The explosion was heard more than 2500 miles away, and every barograph around the world recorded the passage of the air wave, up to seven times. Giant waves, 125 feet high and traveling 300 mph, devastated everything in their path, hurling ashore coral blocks weighing up to 900 tons, and killing more than 36,000 persons. Volcanic ash was carried around the globe in thirteen days producing blue and green suns in the tropics, and then vivid red sunsets in higher latitudes. The temperature of the earth was lowered one degree for the next two years, finally recovering to normal by 1888. (David Ludlum) (Note: Hunga Tonga did the same with barometers recording air passages several times around the world) 1949 - A hurricane made landfall at Delray Beach. Winds reached 153 mph at the Jupiter Lighthouse before the anemometer failed. The hurricane caused 45 million dollars damage to crops, and also caught the Georgia and South Carolina coast resulting in another two million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1965 - Late night severe thunderstorms associated with an unusually strong late summer cold front produced 100 mph winds straight line winds in the Chicago area and northwest Indiana. In Lake County IND, high winds derailed a train near Crown Point, and left a canoe suspended among telephone lines. Two nights later the temperature at Midway Airport in Chicago dipped to 43 degrees, establishing a record for the month of August. (Storm Data) (Hugh Crowther) 1976 - A weak tornado touched down briefly in the Hockley Hills near Kiana, AK, about 29 miles north of the Arctic Circle. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Showers and thunderstorms drenched northern Illinois during the morning and afternoon hours pushing August rainfall totals for Chicago, Moline and Peoria to new all-time highs for any month of the year. By the end of August, Chicago had received 17.10 inches of rain, which easily surpassed the previous record of 14.17 inches established in September 1961. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A dozen cities in Texas, Colorado and California reported record high temperatures for the date, including readings of 100 degrees at Pueblo CO, 106 degrees at Wichita Falls TX, and 109 degrees at Redding CA. Afternoon thunderstorms in Utah deluged the town of Beaver with more than an inch of rain in twenty minutes. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Anchorage, AK, was soaked with a steady rain, and the 24 hour total of 4.12 inches smashed their previous 24 hour precipitation total of 2.10 inches. It also pushed their rainfall total for the month past their previous record for August. (The National Weather Summary) 1992 - Hurricane Andrew made a second landfall near Burns Point, LA as a Category 3 hurricane. Morgan City, LA recorded sustained winds of 92 mph with a peak gust of 108 mph. Hammond, LA was deluged with 11.92 inches of rain. As Andrew moved inland and weakened, it spawned 47 tornadoes from this date through the 28th from the South to the Mid-Atlantic States. Observances: 26 Wed National Dog Day 26 Wed National WebMistress Day 26 Wed Women's Equality Day 26 Wed National Cherry Popsicle Day 26 Wed National Spark the World Day 26 Wed National Toilet Paper Day

Friday could be a sneaky severe weather risk for eastern sections

Fox 29 in Philly posted the below graphic for Philadelphia at the PHL Airport regarding "heat wave" days. I have also posted the same analysis for Chester County since 2020. Of note 10 of the Chester County stations have had the same or less than the 7 heat waves at PHL this year over the entire 2020's!

Fox 29 in Philly posted the below graphic for Philadelphia at the PHL Airport regarding "heat wave" days. I have also posted the same analysis for Chester County since 2020. Of note 10 of the Chester County stations have had the same or less than the 7 heat waves at PHL this year over the entire 2020's!

0.47" of rain yesterday. Stronger cell just to my S dumped 1-2". Most welcome.

In the end one of two scenarios will probably occur 1) MCS activity is confined to extreme northern VT/NH and ME 2) MCS activity dives to our southwest

Oh boy the excitement