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I've stuck with a 1-3" or 2-4" for now, But yeah, I think 3" is the number right now.

Absolutely

Too soon and things might move around some more. Seems like a general 2-4” up our way. 3 is a win. The later part of the week is interesting right into next week

Wow, the dew point has just plummeted this afternoon. It’s 53 here but the dew point is 5. I noticed at Tri it was 2 during the last observation. Talk about dry!

The 12z gfs rolls the trough up top with a backdoor front but amplifies a ridge out west. Yes this coming week is warm but the pattern does jumble up a bit after that. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

And that translates into giving up on the rest of the winter...why?

The gfs looks better today. There's some decent cold shots. The euro on the other hand lol. Are those +50 degree departures in the Midwest for the next 10 days at least? What an impressive heatwave. Someone at our latitude is definitely going to see 70's if not 80's lol. F-it. I'm moving on and planning some extended hikes in the local mountains.

Yessir!

GYX is not biting on that yet, These things are finicky.

An impressive trough then yes warm-up but then possibly more cold but honestly past day 5 it's a crapshoot. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Made it to 49° here with the MOS and raw guidance forecast for low 40s. Noticed the MOS from several days ago was around 50° but it shifted colder. Models often underestimate highs with sunny and windy downslope flow and the cold air lagging frontal passage.

No it actually wouldn’t verbatim.

glad you are so confident - thats why I said said changes still possible- could end up being nothing too still have over 40 hours to go......

Usually if the pattern is bad in the south it's bad for us too. Same goes for Philadelphia.

this is a coating to 2 inches tops in my opinion everywhere unless you go to northwest Ct and Southwest Mass where they can get up to 5 inches

last storm CP NYC got 2.9 and I am southwest of them in Extreme northern Middlesex County NJ and I got somewhere between 5 and 6 inches -- to be safe I am staying with 1 -4 for my area as of now...........changes still possible before showtime.......

JI cancels on October 21st

Jan 15 to Feb 15 honestly looks like a decent period IMO

If anyone here is cancelling winter on December 21, they should go find a new hobby.

Looks that way, let's hope for the Norlun again.

Would be snow to sleet to Zr south of 90 verbatim

Def could clip that area. That’s where most of the uncertainty is on this. We can quibble about 1.4” vs 3.5” over the interior but I don’t see any drastic changes.

You can relax now. The 12Z Euro has no storm, which was fully expected due to the 0Z coming out of nowhere in semi-fantasyland and with hardly any EPS support. But the 12Z does look solid cold as early as the PM of 12/29 and lasting through 12/31 fwiw. However, its E US trough is stronger than other 12Z ops and is thus currently an outlier for the cold. Regardless, the colder trend seems to be there. So, we’ll see. Edit: The 12Z EPS has no support for a synoptic scale SE snowstorm as they support a mainly dry shot of cold.

Winter might be over

Prime climo is a few weeks away.