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Low of 39 with .1” of rain. Thankful for this crazy group of weather freaks. Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! My low was 27 this morning and the snow guns are blowing all over Cataloochee. Webcam shows a very base was blown overnight! Clouds have rolled in with a bit of virga as well.

For the love of God--no one start a thread before Sunday.

Very light dusting of snow this morning. But with Saturdays snow, this will be the 3rd Thanksgiving weekend in a row to have a blanket of snow.

Starting to read about a second significant disruption of the PV in late December. Could this be a wall-to-wall winter?

Yeah, according to hovmollers the models are trending towards weaker forcing at 6/7 after Dec 7. Between now and Dec 7, we have a clean mjo 8 pass. Then weak forcing reappears at 6/7, which is strongest with gefs. But even the gefs begins to propagate that eastward after Dec 7-10. So we may yet get another mjo 8 pass soon afterward.

Yesterday’s (11/26) 2 week GEFS (through 12/10): didn’t make it to phase 8 (extended showed it made it but not til 12/13): Today’s (11/27) 2 week GEFS through 12/11: already makes it to phase 8 on 12/3, which is TEN days earlier than yesterday. It remains in phase 8 through the end, meaning it would be a 9+ day phase 8, the longest Dec phase 8 since 1989:

Hard to cool with cloudy skies and 30-40mph wind gusts.

Great insight as usual Walt. NWS OKX AFD seems to be on the fence in issuing a wind advisory for Friday and does mention a slight chance of showers/flurries. I highlighted the passage to make it easier: SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Point * Friday winds gust to 40 to 45 mph, possibly higher, close to 50 mph at times. * Friday still very cold with high temperatures upper 30s to lower 40s. Max wind chills mostly in the lower 30s. The low in Quebec makes its way towards the Canadian Maritimes without much change in strength with its central low pressure on Friday. The pressure gradient during the day Friday between this low and high pressure well to the southwest becomes the most tight, indicating an even more gusty westerly flow. This will be conveyed through a deeper mixing layer and steeper lapse rates which are shown in the forecast model BUFKIT soundings. There is some indication also of some narrow sliver of elevated CAPE and with positive vorticity advection could have a few rain and/or snow showers for parts of the region. POPs are just slight chance for this. The core of the 850mb cold pool will be across the region so made some adjustments to NBM to account for this. Went higher than NBM for clouds and POPs as well as winds and lower than NBM for temperatures. NBM 90th percentile winds were used and even with these were manually adjusted up to better match up with forecast soundings from BUFKIT especially with deep vertical mixing. The current forecast has wind gust maxima of 40 to 45 mph, just below wind advisory criteria. Cannot rule out a few wind gusts to wind advisory thresholds, near 50 mph Friday. At this time, still too early and not high enough confidence to go with wind advisory for Friday but chances are slowly trending up. 06Z MAVs have trended slightly higher with sustained winds Friday afternoon for some sites compared to the 00Z MAVs. Would also like to see LAMP gusts indicate some mid to upper 30s for wind gusts to increase confidence in wind advisory for Friday. BUFKIT already indicating a few spots late afternoon into evening mix up to near 800mb with 45 kt at top of mixed layer. The 40kt wind gust potential in the HRRR fields has expanded comparing the 00Z HRRR run to the 06Z HRRR run. The wind gust potential with the 00Z run only indicated some areas of 35-40 kt wind gust potential within the region for Friday mainly in the easternmost part of LI Sound and now covers most of LI Sound and along more coastline. Forecast high temperatures Friday are mostly in the upper 30s to lower 40s with wind chills at most in the lower 30s for most locations.

CTP is starting to mention the Tuesday chance. .SYNOPSIS... * Gusty west to northwest winds and much colder temperatures to end the week * Lake effect snow will result in significant Thanksgiving holiday travel disruptions across northwest Pennsylvania * Scattered snow showers and a few squalls will impact the weather across the Central Mtns, Laurel Highlands and possibly the Middle Susquehanna Valley Thanksgiving Day into Friday * A few periods of snow (Northern PA) and snow/or a wintry mix (Southern PA) late Saturday Night and Sunday * A more significant/widespread winter storm possible Tuesday and Tuesday night

On the bright side today shows the MJO getting to phase 8, which reflects the early snow threats to our N/W zones

IMO its interesting for the mid week storm that the ensembles of the GFS and Euro are not amped up like the OPS. Also the Euro AI is still southeast with precip barely making it into the Metro as shown below

That lightest gray patch is a bit north of you, and right over me. It's surprising how often modeled snowfall includes that Fryeburg-Danforth hole. Fortunately, it doesn't verify all that often.

That map looks highly suspect...

Yesterday’s (11/26) EPS 2 week MJO forecast through Dec 10th: was then curling back away from 8 after barely getting into it and we were wondering whether it would ever get back to phase 8: Yesterday’s (11/26) EPS extended, which adds 12/11-27: had a 15+ day phase 8 12/13-27, which would be the 2nd longest phase 8 on record for any month (2nd only to the 18 day long phase 8 of Dec-Jan 1975-6) and the more favorable for cold weak to moderate amp (vs strong) to boot:

37 for the low. Another weak sauce cool shot.

Wow ai ensembles lol. Absolute eye candy. Do I fall for it? Hook line and sinker!!! U know the drill.

High is in a bad spot. Southeast winds just eroding the cad.

Amazing how quite You were amazingly quiet yesterday.

Happy Thanksgiving friends!

It’s a coastal, but some of the mid level dynamics are still WAA biased initially. It does try to back and close off higher up as it gets over ME.

There’s a standing wave there (near Maritime Continent). Not hard to figured out why either with +30C SSTs. Thermodynamics 101. The atmosphere will always put the strongest and most persistent convection over the warmest waters…..

Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS 2 week through 12/10: was then curling back away from 8 and we were wondering whether it would ever make phase 8: Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS extended, which adds 12/11-12/27: it turned out that it made phase 8 for an 8 day period (12/13-20), which would be longest phase 8 since Feb of 2019’s 9 day long ph 8 and the longest Dec ph 8 since Dec of 1989’s 10 day long ph 8 along with it being a more favorable for cold weak to moderate amp:

Only model that far south so it’s an outlier.

Happy Thanksgiving!