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Clarksville

Yeah I know...but I was talking more about how we had so many of them.

Just give me a weak, west based El Nino. The last few El Ninos that we've had have either been basin wide or east based. Neither are good for snow lovers.

The biggest fly in the ointment for all of us is that we accomplished an awesome ridge out west but it’s tilted to the east at the top. That’s what’s screwing us down the line. You can’t get any energy to drop into a better spot than the plains when the ridge is kicking the energy over Hudson Bay before dropping it in.

May need the tanning oil too

I’m not disappointed in this winter at all so far. Yes it sucks that we have not got any snow yet, but it’s been chilly to cold most of the winter so far.

Half of those ninas had the too warm discussion.

CMC has light snow on the 18th, and a follow up clipper on the 20th. GFS ensembles average a few inches for the 18th, but ensembles usually follow the OP. Ensembles had several inches of snow on Saturday for the 16th when the OP was going crazy for the 16th. Either way, the long range looks quite cold from the Dakotas through the southeast. In the 2000s and 2010s, that would mean several snowstorms. We'll see what happens

GEFS looks pretty good starting this weekend. Interested if it will consolidate around a single threat/timing because there are members showing snow anywhere from the 17th-21st.

Interesting how we haven't had to have the "too warm" discussion for awhile. The mediocre snow totals from last year to now can't be blamed on that! Unless the elephant is responsible for the SIX Ninas we've had over the last 10 years... IF we can't get things going late Jan on for whatever reason (not saying we won't so don't jump on me--I said IF), we reeaaalllly need next year's niño to deliver. We can't afford to have both niños of the decade not produce.

Yeah which is why I’m looking forward to the gradient pattern at this point. We might get a cutter but at least there will be QPF events to track in that type of pattern.

I just tweaked my carb on mine this weekend. The BEAST is ready to eat....even little crumbs. Unfortunately you are rather similar to us SE'rs (piedmont region) w/ your typical winter weather. That said....we feel your pain. Lets hope things get going soon, and for us realists that sprinkle in some optimist for good flavor, later Jan/Feb was supposted to be the end of winter from some early calls, and if the look holds, it may just be the start of the real fun. For how long....dunno, but it has not been a shutout whatsoever, and I'm not complaining whatsoever........yet.

That flu is no joke! Hope you get well soon John!

Feel better soon. I hope you were able to get on an anti-viral. They say they can really help if started in the first 48 hours.

Yeah, man. Big ol' banana over the top in the medium and LR. EPO -> AO -> NAO.

Classic La Nina.

And who knows if it is correct, but the 12z GFS does have some support from both ensembles and other deterministic runs...the 12z GFS does amplify the pattern after the 25th w/ very cold air getting trapped over NA...just look at the 500 heights. The 0z Euro just about went to the extreme. Big story for 240+(proceed at your own risk...) is the movement of very cold air into NA. Can it get to our latitude? I think it has a chance. Feel better, @John1122! Hopefully @Daniel Booneis on the mend. I haven't seen him post as much recently.

We haven’t been able to get a stable ridge out west and get a shortwave pipeline going. It lasts for a day and something always mucks it up. However we’ll get the cold because of the -WPO but we can’t sustain a better +PNA or even -EPO for that matter.

John get to feeling better. I’ve heard the flu is not easy to have this year. Of course, when is being sick easy lol. They say it’ll knock you on your butt this year.

Probably best to close the shades for the next 10 days and hope that maybe the last week of the month can offer something. ”hoping” something changes before then isn’t forecasting. It’s wishing. Look at the models. It’s not even particularly close to anything interesting

January is not delivering as promised but there are signs of a more active jet stream by the last week of the month. Whether the storm track is white or wet TBD. One cautionary note: the pattern keeps looking good two weeks out. Need to see if it holds this time around.

There’s literally little to no snow opportunities thru day 10-12. I’ve never seen it quite this bad in terms of no hope or opportunity

Meridional flow definitely overcomes a lot of imperfections.

I just posted similar observations about that aspect re recency of the model runs a couple posts ago... I also think that the general user that is "emotionally" triggered by this engagement needs to wait on that changing... because the sooner they accept that is needed, that will go some ways toward ameliorating their angst - and improving their moods. But hey... sometimes I wonder if that's part of the fun for them. Leaving them selves open. I dunno