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There was a bit more precip on the NW side but it was a setup back in the upper levels.

The 12Z GFS =

Not worried. It’s the GFS lol and the GFS is the only model this far east. Euro is the best at this range and a lot more west. We’ll see, but I’m not worried about the GFS being so far east, I highly doubt that. The GFS was so far east it gives Athens, GA and pretty much all of the coast of GA nothing. Euro has been consistently west and laying 2-3” for Athens. I don’t buy the GFS, especially after how awful it was last storm and the weekend before that. It has the lowest verification scores inside 72 hours of any global model. Wait and see what the Euro does. Either way NC/SC are in a great spot regardless of which model you wanna hug. But Athens, GA is definitely getting snow out of this one and it’s comical how far east the GFS is .

Bob, what are you thinking for our areas? Can't say I love the trend. I feel like as time goes things may adjust even more south and east. The confluence up top is hurting.

Yup , which I said earlier this morning. The threat is dead with that upper level pattern.

It is too early to give up on the north jog. But the solution advertised is similar to Jan 25th, 2000 - it IS possible.

6Z GFS had a couple more legit shots over the next 2 weeks. We'll see if 12Z holds.

My wife's family in Shelby Co is still without power. Been a long week over there.

Maybe this is how you get winter enthusiasts to finally stop playing the "I'm not a denier while failing to admit CC is playing a factor" game ... By consummately bending them over with this fast flow shit, their bums may finally reach quota of violation enough to penetrate their minds with it. haha

Almost 2" QPF for CHH. Feb 89 bliz repeat?

Bye, bye

The Skook out by me was ~50% frozen over yesterday when I drove down River Road north of Rt. 12. This is north of the Tulpehocken, which is fed from Blue Marsh, so I don't know if it's frozen downstream. Might have to go check it out later today. I also want to see if anybody's out at Ontelawnee ice fishing. That's something I've always wanted to do, and this weekend might be a good weekend for it.

I wonder if the stuff around DC is adding in what might fall today?

Not giving up, I just said that. Let's see if it remains consistent today. Yesterday had wild swings.

All the convection is wreaking havoc on the model placement with the low at the surface.

Big swing and a miss for the Atlanta metro. Hopefully we get the western trend/earlier phase solution in subsequent runs...

I wish I could share in the enthusiasm brother.. I don't have a good feeling at all.. I think as we get closer the trend actually continues to head more south and east. Your area imo will do quite a bit better than up this way this go around.

2018 was painful to see heavy snow one County away. I hate riding so close.. The sting would be as painful this time..

Yeah the GFS run actually had more in RIC than Virginia Beach for this run . still right on the boarder line of a major vs light snow (almost nothing) event in RIC

Effing boob lows again. .

Lock step on this one.

Upper levels are closed off so there will be a sharp gradient. The energy is in a tight ball and not stretched out. If closed low doesn't dig as far south, the entire mass moves north with it. That's the most likely path to a dc hit.

Pretty wild that basically every storm the past decade has screwed us last minute with some northern jog...except for this one seemingly.

Well...happy for ENC...Upstate folks out through Atl...love you guys but time to hang it up on a potential big one for us. Here's to next time! @Brick Tamlandbuild me an igloo for posterity, maybe it'll end our drought next year! Hell, might as well build a whole igloo apartment complex with that amount!

More confluence to the north this run. Saw this on the RGEM as well.