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That lp track is the stuff drams are made of in east TN and the southern Apps. Just a tinge more cold air at that run.....

Whcih seems more likely in this setup correct?

Temperatures conducive but no precip. NWS forecast 0.1 -0.2” ice. Ain’t happening. 0.03” at PSM. DAW seems to be having issues but they must have also registered 0.03” or less through the morning….

Does anyone have that literature concerning 6-7 MJO pulse triggering a SSW?? I would like to view that....wasn't aware, but it's so neat that I came to that same conclusion on the Feb SSW using alternative methodology.

Light zr 29.8.. car is iced over

ZR falling again

Yea that run was a weather weenie’s paradise. Overall, the pattern held in the overnight guidance. It’s a step down process that gradually gets cooler over time. A -NAO really starts to show up later in the scene and bully some cold air down the east coast. That gfs fantasy run was something we really hasn’t seen in a while: deep CAD and a very dynamic shortwave digging all the way to the Gulf before a bee line north. A mauler from NC to Maine.

My response to the "there must be a very warm month imminent because of CC" is this....the NE has been by far the warmest quadrant of the country over the past decade, so TBH, it should not be a surprise that this has started to reverse over the past 1.5 winter seasons. I understand the implication of the west warm pool in forcing that type of pattern modulation, but I have always posited that mother nature will manufacture a way to maintain some semblance of an equilibrium moving forward, and it seems as though we have started to see that. I do expect snowfall to follow suite sooner rather than later, whether that be this year or in subsequent seasons.

The storm track is really not conducive for a ton of rain for us

Chris, you are correct, ice is burning through this, temps at my shop 30F now, ground temp, different story, usual side streets, walks stairs etc, slick, city out, bus routes etc. Lol need snow event! Going through salt over the last week!

2 hour delay here in Winsted, had to drive my kid into school in Torrington, damn near fell down the deck stairs but roads are fine, sitting at 30.1 with drizzle zr

2001 and 2023 are also analogs. Does this guarantee a big come back in terms of snow? Nope...maybe we still get boned, but what I can tell you is that there isn't going to be some exotic +7 monthly departure in February just because the first half of winter was cold. I am pretty confident in that SSW, but IF that fails...then I could see a very warm March...but doubtful. February is not going to be very warm in the mean...maybe it ends up like January only in reverse order (cold start, warm up later as the strat does it's thing), but it won't be a lost cause.

One of only two Cat 5. NESIS storms. Bonus points if you can name the other one without looking it up.

Wish we could get more of them this Winter.

March 2018 is the crown jewel of this kind of warming, everyone likes to bring that absurd MJO pulse up haha

Low of 37 and heavy fog in the valleys. A solid .015” in the gauge but not seeing any evidence it rained. While all surfaces are wet, it has that classic heavy fog/dew combo look, so not putting anything in the books.

That may not have been the case since the anomalies were based on 1991-2020 means which were the warmest on record. Notice the warm departures in the Southwest were sufficient for many sites to record their warmest December on record. Those warm departures were only lower due to the much warmer 1991-2020 normals. The cold departures to the north would also be smaller based of the previous colder 30 year means. Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow December 2025 temperature ranking (since 1895). A lot of the West had their warmest December on record and nearly everywhere out west had a top 5 warmest December. 10:26 PM · Jan 1, 2026 Everybody can reply

The 6z GFS was a beautiful run showing coastal potential on the 16th.

Yeah. Nice January thaw coming up. Lol on Goff Law sponsoring NBC's weather graphic with an embedded ad.

That’s my close #2 best week in my opinion. The historic first storm in 96 places it just above 2010 for me. Either way, they are a clear #1 & #2 for best snow weeks in the last 30 years or more.

...well they other day someone was touting "revisions" were going to need to be made to the upcoming AN temp period forecast...

I expect the models start to dry up today like they normally do 24 hours out.

This x1,000,000.

This would be the biggest storm for us in a while.

The overnight Op runs are coming around to the idea of a moisture laden storm that rides up the coast. The 0z Euro liked the 18th, but missed just to our south this run. Plenty of time & potential in this period.