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Wacky run, no question.

I'm just focused on getting that SW to come east. Though I suppose there's still a lot of time even if we get everything on board at 0z tonight. Do you know when it will be sampled better?

In the January 1988 storm, there’s a freezing rain report from Chattanooga and a surface temp of 25

Even in Knoxville, I don't like how close we are to that snow/ice line. A 50-100 mile jog north would put us in a world of pain, and a north trend with this kind of system seems like something that could easily happen. This reminds me of that arcade game where you have to steer the marble down the sidewinder-shaped course to the goal, except each model suite between now and Saturday is a new turn north or south and the goal is a snowstorm for the whole valley. Suppression! Cutter! More suppression! Notably, I could never win that game...

GFS almost guaranteed not to do right

The ICON was a positive step in the handling of 5H with even some room for more improvement for the sub-forum. The GFS will get on board by Saturday afternoon

ICON with a Big Hit

Like I said, it’s rarely that easy. I still think there will be a reshuffling when upper air obs get better sampled as the sw enters the conus

Good run by the Icon. Moves the system out a little faster than Euro, but good trends from that model. Brought that baja low inland, unlike 12z. Hopefully GFS finally caves to that solution.

I'm like 90% sure that the RGEM 10km is a higher res version of the CMC—exact same output otherwise

Only 84 hours until Watches are issued.

I think we see at least a partial cave back towards its 12z run with ejecting at least some of the SW energy. Hopefully more though.

It was indeed one of those storms that kept you on edge with potential that threatened also, great disappointment. It came in after dark, and what followed was probably the best and most long lasting thunder snow I have ever experienced. It was gone by the next morning having left in its wake about 15" where I was, just west of Boston.

I mean it's the ICON. But there is no denying the improvement that run. Easy way for us to score to.

Have to cheer against that phasing out west. Would be our luck…everything for years struggles to phase, then when we actually need more strung out it gets phased and amped up. It’s always the stupid GFS with the good solution…

Kinda looks like it would lead to a big run. Guess will find out when cmc comes out.

The ICON was still more progressive than the Euro, but managed to dump 10-12 inches. Chattanooga gets nearly an inch of QPF on there with temps from 26 to 29.

It’s the ICON but i’ll take it. Can’t complain about its trend (more like a big shift). Let’s see what CMC and GFS does next. I think the latter will remain stubborn haha

I think the ICON is an outlier with how warm it was.

Yup, RGEM ain't look too bad either

Another one for the ole’ archives .

Now we just need the GFS to cave and I will feel so much better about saying with near certainty the East coast will get a major snowstorm somewhere.

Looks Euroish

Seriously Its the same people over and over again predicting warmth. It has been a cold winter.

Has there ever been a Z rain event that widespread in the south/southeast ever? I just don’t want to believe that can verify.