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Sleet from the mid levels and snow from the salt nuclei in the low levels?

I had a camp up there for many years - coldest I experienced was -30. Its terrible.

Virga. Literally under one of the heavier returns close to on the radar heading home from Skiing at Winterplace. Nothing reaching the ground currently

Yeah NAM hasn't done well at all. Neither has the Euro in my opinion.

It's too dependent on surface temps when once you're below 31 or 32F they don't make any difference at all. The key is to figure out how efficiently snowflakes are produced (maximized around -15C) and the favored crystal type which impacts the density of the snowfall (ratio). For any real skill you have to look at where lift is maximized and at what temperature and also the depth of the DGZ (-12c to -18c). Kuchera would do OK if you're right around 32F because it would skew numbers down in that case not due to bad snow growth but due to melting/compacting.

This NAM run might be interesting

CTP hasnt budged for me 1-3/6-10/1-3 Tells me they know were in the battlezone, and 2-3 hrs of snow/taint, will make/break there forecast. I'm givin them props for this one. Really like how theyve handled it so far.

Really hope the HRRR is wrong. That's way too much freezing rain.

Yeah might be good for Monday.

HRRR is showing the warm nose coming in a lot sooner. Heck it shows the low cutting up Eastern TN.

CF over Ray for a few hours verbatim.

Feel like most south of 50/66 will be pinging by this time tomorrow. Hope that’s wrong.

HRRR drags the low and redevelops back end snows Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

I would need the sleet to stay away. But 12z hrrr has a little fire hose coming into BOS harbor at 12z with any mix CT to south of BOS going to snow.

I still think back to that anafrontal snow in March 2014 where the Nam insisted on a warm layer around same spot as this storm, while other models played it down. Nam was wrong and mby got 7". We'll see.

12z NAM

So what did I have here last night? House cat or bobcat?

I attribute it to scar tissue from prior fails

Not sure if we have any posters from N.E. AR but man this is some extremely heavy snow according to Radar between Memphis and Searcy AR!

And the 815 ice forecast called for 0.16" in DC.

12z NAM playing catch-up, starting to finally show a tap of moisture from the Gulf early on this run.

If you're a fan of long lasting snow cover then sleet will encase the snow and it's gonna last a long time

27.5/15.1 here at the house. No precip yet. I'd love to believe the NAM with its dry slot later but it has handled this initial onset very, very poorly so far.

Meanwhile barometer is still rising at 30.64 (approx 1038 mb)

The real story from this storm will be the icing down south vs the snow we get here. Austin to San Antonio is expected to get up to about 0.25" ice and there are winter storm warnings all the way to almost Corpus Christi. That would be like us getting 2-3 feet of snow in terms of disruptiveness.