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NAM, RRFS, NAM 3K, EURO are all single digit snowfalls for the nyc metro. It’s not just the NAM, though NAM is the least snowy of the bunch

This is the stupidest fuckin storm. Started out fun to track and then went to shit trying to understand it.

this is an interesting question. I'm not sure the heavy precip can have the same affect on a column of air that has already been saturated? Someone way smarter than me would need to address this

I assume you're in New York?

Yea poor five O…his cruiser will need a paint job after this.

I've seen it plenty of times this far out....it's rarely too warm inside of like 36 hours.

Yes. Very, significant LIs for this kind of scenario. Just about every single parameter I can think of is lined up for a possibly catastrophic ETX ice storm. But I feel even these most reliable winter wx models are still underdoing the accumulation potential with such a powerful incoming SS trough for this winter wx setup. That's also why I still wouldn't let my guard down even in CTX or Austin/San Antonio region also.

Sleet way over done warm bias om model. Fresh artic air strong high

The HRRR looks like it is over-doing the downslope, but I never, ever discount that model. If one model can see downslope, it is that one. The 3k NAM basically got rid of the downslope - not sure if it is a hiccup or if the mountain wave was less. The HRRR is basically showing that NE TN is going to takes its time getting precip in here. As you know, not uncommon. The 12z Euro, 18z NAM(southward jog), 12z GFS, 12z RGEM....take some time to get precip, but then they just overwhelm the dry air, and send it. Ice is so difficult to forecast in the Tennessee Valley. I have seen cold get trapped and never leave until the event is over. I have seen it scoured immediately. My experience says this cold air erodes pretty quickly. But........this hp setup is different than most other events. It is strong. If I was just looking at a map and scientifically had to make a call...I would say that big high is gonna pour cold air down the west slopes of the Apps and hold onto frozen precip just a bit longer.

Its the truth

To go from suppressed to this is disgusting.

Yep they have been unbeatable. Hate to see the NAM go .

18z NAM looks great!!

I’d definitely be concerned in NYC

How many times have I heard this from you

We sure have, which is why I never totally rule it out, but it had panels where it was literally showing the thermals colder and further south on all levels yet showing the sleet line further north. Bizarre.

the goal is too make that NAM run the outlier

Im a Bills fan! You want to talk about disappointment? We apparently live for it

If you want to claim a window for a storm, you cant just post a random op run and say ooh look a storm! lol ( not that Ralph did that, idk) You do this-

I still dont buy that this is a fresh injection of arctic.Air the highs holding firm up north and it's supplying enough cold air.I think it's a warm bias

It’s not the only model that has warmer air ticking north though, Just something to watch.

The heaviest snow is Sunday evening around 7. That would be nice.

Icons rolling, lets see if we can bat .000 for the 18z suite