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76F/DP 60F Sunset is now under 8pm and losing more and more daylight each day...

Historic event = historic storms

Warmth isn't evenly distributed. Several LR models have the US as the coldest anomaly on earth while the rest of the planet torches. It all depends on where the ridges set up. Despite that you can never go wrong with saying it'll be an AN winter temperature wise in today's AGW era.

Great weather today with comfortable humidity and temperatures not too far from normal for mid-August. We turn wetter and a little stormy by later tomorrow into tomorrow night some spots could see upwards of an inch or so of rain. We turn sunny any by Monday with pleasant weather returning and lasting through mid-week.

Great weather today with comfortable humidity and temperatures not too far from normal for mid-August. We turn wetter and a little stormy by later tomorrow into tomorrow night some spots could see upwards of an inch or so of rain. We turn sunny any by Monday with pleasant weather returning and lasting through mid-week.

GYX has been consistently showing slightly AN for next week, except for Monday's rain. 45 this morning, coolest since June 17. August is still +3, however.

Given this is the strongest El Niño in recorded history combined with AGW I can’t see how this isn’t the warmest winter on record across the CONUS

Historic https://x.com/us_stormwatch/status/2088444482224328788?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

It already has. NYC used to have their climate only a few decades ago. Now they have what we did.

I feel that it was a terrible manager pick for a team that needs experience and leadership. Most MLB teams have a limited window to win it all, and this goes down as another wasted year.

https://radar.weather.gov/region/hawaii/standard

August 15 1936: St. Paul swelters with a high of 108. For Saturday, August 15, 2026 1787 - Tornadoes were reported in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. Wethersfield CT was hard hit by the tornado outbreak. (David Ludlum) 1946 - Saint Louis, MO, was deluged with a record 8.78 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The Weather Channel) 1967 - The Sundance fire in northern Idaho was started by lightning. Winds of 50 mph carried firebrands as much as ten miles in advance to ignite new fires, and as a result, the forest fire spread twenty miles across the Selkirk Mountains in just twelve hours, burning 56,000 acres. The heat of the fire produced whirlwinds of flame with winds up to 300 mph which flung giant trees about like matchsticks. (David Ludlum) (Note: WOW, EF5++ firenados) 1983 - Hurricane Alicia formed on this day and was the costliest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic since Hurricane Agnes in 1972. It struck Galveston and Houston, Texas directly, causing $2.6 billion (1983 USD) in damage and killing 21 people. This storm was the worst Texas hurricane since Hurricane Carla in 1961. Also, Alicia was the first billion-dollar tropical cyclone in Texas history. 1987 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a sharp cold front produced severe weather in the Upper Midwest during the afternoon and evening hours, with Minnesota and eastern South Dakota hardest hit. A thunderstorm in west central Minnesota spawned a tornado at Eagle Lake which killed one person and injured eight others. A thunderstorm in eastern South Dakota produced softball size hail at Warner. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thirty five cities in twenty states in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Lamoni IA and Baltimore MD, where the mercury hit 105 degrees. Temperatures 100 degrees or above were reported in twenty-two states. Pierre SD was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 114 degrees. Bluefield WV reported eight straight days of record heat. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Evening thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Clovis. Evening thunderstorms in West Texas produced baseball size hail around Hereford, Dimmitt, Ware and Dalhart. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 15 Sat National Relaxation Day 15 Sat National Back To School Prep Day 15 Sat International Geocaching Day 15 Sat International Homeless Animals Day 15 Sat Assumption of Mary 15 Sat Chant at the Moon Day 15 Sat Check the Chip Day 15 Sat Feast of the Assumption 15 Sat National Leathercraft Day 15 Sat National Lemon Meringue Pie Day 15 Sat National Shoe Donation Day 15 Sat St Mary's Day 15 Sat World Greatness Day 15 Sat National No Sponge Bob Day

Sun sets before 8pm now 76F/DP 55F

https://x.com/ryanweather/status/2088279380971680057?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

Week 32 worldwide YTD cumulative burnt area by wildfires: 2026 is still by a good margin lowest of comparable weeks of 2012-26:

our climate is coming for you

Late August/early September: Probably near normal with perhaps a cool period. Remainder of September: generally above normal. October: I am really uncertain.

More recent guidance leaning toward morning rain, perhaps a brief break early afternoon, and then more storms later in the afternoon and evening. Juicy precip totals.

I feel its moreso with the coop stations. Ive seen some ridiculous temps of both extremes in old coop notes. I feel most major climate sites are pretty accurate to the 1870s.

Thoughts on late august and sept? Do you think summer sticks around till October or do we get an early start to fall?

I would look at Tavg, annual and monthly, to start.

I get it but those features will tend to shift/weaken/strengthen at times. Nothing in the atmosphere remains static. We have had recent Ninas where the NE PAC High was a pig and in an awful spot, but then later shifted northward and morphed into a -EPO. And like I said, we are sort of in uncharted territory such that these historical analogs suggesting 'binary' options may not be as reliable and somewhat different outcomes are possible.

You are definitely right! I noticed it immediately once i got out of the foothills of the Appalachian mountains. Can smell the water in the air. Was quite the experience.