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It's been top 5 hottest June 1 through July 15 period with mostly ridging in the east. Only now are troughs being introduced.

Smoke is back. Sunrise at the airport dog park this morning.

Perfection! Today Sunny, with a high near 74. Northwest wind around 14 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 50. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Monday Sunny, with a high near 78. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon. Monday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around 57. Calm wind. Tuesday A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Light south wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 8pm. Low around 66. Southeast wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog before 9am. High near 76. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday Night Showers likely, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. West wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Calm wind. Friday Sunny, with a high near 79. Light west wind. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Calm wind. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.

The latest CFSv2 run’s mean is at new highs for peak: Monthly relative 3.4 progged peak ~+3.6 (Nov), which is way above current record (back to 1950) warmest of +2.69 (Jan ‘83) : 3 month relative 3.4 progged peak ~+3.35 (SON and OND), which is way above the record back to 1950 of +2.52 (NDJ 1982-3)

Hopefully Canada isn't torched by Pacific puke for most of the winter.

Should be some 40s at the rad sites tomorrow morning.

That nice air hasn't quite reached here yet. Currently 77F with a 68 dew.

Yeah, I should have been more clear - I meant that it "should" be a rainy winter with more southern stream lows. But I will believe in mythical rain when I see it in my desert.

Take those temperatures for the peak of summer.

Ya there was a long swath of 3-6” in southern CT.

Back broken?

That cold front feels nice. Windows are open to let in the less humid and non smoky air. Tuesday’s threat looks interesting…would be nice to make up for yesterday’s whiff around here.

Picked up 0.03” from a brief but heavy shower this morning and yes, you can slice the air with a knife today. It is that thick

First shot across the bow

What would have been needed for more robust, widespread severe given that profile?

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (formerly AL91) located over the Gulf of America, at 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC) Please pin this @buckeyefan1or other mod. TIA

Very refreshing breeze this morning

There was a fairly widespread area of 60mph+ returns on BWI TDWR from about MD10 eastward. A few pockets of 80. Not surprising.

Too much moisture in the mixed phase regions for large hail production, the Wet Bulb 0C is up at 4km. Though both Frederick area and BWI impressively reported small hail despite that. The thermodynamics more represents a deep tropical look than anything else. Explains the prolific lightning production. The bulk shear above 30 kts meant we had supercells right at the start, like near Frederick. Once the wet downbursts started though, the lack of low level shear and curvature meant that any low level mesocyclone was squashed out early. To your point; The lack of any EML or capping also meant that those boundaries went and upscaled, “polluting” the environment.

62/53 and ovc with wind is a little chilly for me in July. It feels like mid September out there.

It's on course to become a truly monstrous historic event. Its impacts will be far-reaching and probably very severe.

Sorry to hear. Nothing remotely approaching severe anywhere down this way. Total rainfall of .19” with a low of 67. Outside of Tuesday, seems like a beautiful week ahead.

aside from the winds, it’s pretty damn nice out there this morning. glad the wind is drying out the grass so I can cut it today, but it’s a bit much right now. Hopefully it subsides a bit later

never was worth watching for SNE, but oh well