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This will be a rare occasion that a dense smoke plume prevented 100°+ heat and higher departures.

This Gulf system is absolutely crap

46.6F this morning. Yeesh. bring me some 90s please.

Seems to be trending a bit north today with less of a time window over water. Probably only gets to minimal TS at this point. Satellite appears to be showing more northerly shear today as well

Nice condensed way to put that ... ...I've also been impressing upon this phenomenon myself since last October... 7 or so of the last 9 months have have been cooler relative to the planetary seemingly fixed hot spots, yet still warmer than normal relative to our own climate means. Relativity is baking people's perception, perhaps. We base our impressions on a combination of sensible experiences over the time... mixed up with "group theory"- haha. But, here's an example of May and June per NASA's GIS tool - granularity and so forth, notwithstanding. Clearly there is a preferential/bias to result cooler over eastern mid latitude N America, than it is ( again ... relative to climate) N-S-E-W and abroad. But combining sensible experience with headlines that rarely include our region when it comes to warmth ... it's a bit obfuscating/false impression making - maybe. Anyway, we're above normal, just not as much. There are a few other cooler nodes as one can clearly see ... I haven't been paying as close attention to those in all honesty - preoccupied by how warm enthusiasts are being tormented locally ( haha). I wouldn't be shocked however if these are "geological resonant feedback" regions. In other words, wholesale planetary factorization 'sort of' fixing those cool vs warm regions. Some of that's got to be true. I mean, the perennial N/A pattern ( PNAP ) has a flat ridge west, nadir-ing flow east, as the westerlies impinge on the western N/A cordillera ... forced up and over, and then Coriolis bends the flow into NVA... etc.. But, that does probably contribute to why our "heat domes" are too transient to be part of the cool kids. Something like that could be normal elsewhere.

57 here. What a great morning.

I just watched Jim Cantory say that it seems to be trending more towards a LA landfall. That's more in our wheelhouse for remnant moisture than Texas. That will just mean Frederick and Glen Burnie get flash flooding lol

Almost expect to wake up to one of those every day right now. Since it started we haven't missed a day yet. Hoping some day this week will not have an air quality alert!

56F low in Lancaster. .

53 here this morning.

Yeah unless we’re getting 10” of rain in a month and a bunch of 60-70° ratters it’s tough to pull off BN summer months now…even with 1991-2020 normals. CON had 14 mins in the 40s or colder in July 1965 and an extreme of 35°. That’s hard enough for SLK to pull off today.

not much has changed on this front

Point/click has my rain chances for tonight through Wednesday night of 60%, 70%, 90%, 80%, 80%. I'm calling it now: less than 0.2 total and a total whiff wouldn't surprise me. Too bad that new depression in the Gulf is expected to move west towards Texas. A tropical system up the coast is the only way I can think of that would get real rain here.

Seems like Upton is discounting the widespread regional flood threat for tomorrow and Wednesday. Thoughts ? AFD from KOKX

72 in my UHI blessed Brooklyn postage stamp as opposed to 64 at Central Park, probably due to natural air conditioning. As always …

Gardeners and farmers don’t forget the year ago pattern. It’s imprinted on us like a scar. A few of us here fit that mold.

If you want to make a cogent background warming argument it’s that we have BN persistence in the northeast but N to AN tendency.

Highly doubt that persists through winter.

The season is not record hot/cold until it's over. Let's' see how the remainder plays out.

54 degrees this morning. Awesome morning! Anyone have an idea when this storms are supposed to start up tomorrow?

94-95 was close to what the Euro seasonal was forecasting and not what verified. The closest actual 500 mb match was a much warmer nationally and less snowy version of 1995-1996 for DJF. Notice how the ridges overpowered the pattern compared to 1996. It was the first weak La Niña since then with a Bering Sea ridge, Baja SW U.S. ridge, and Greenland block. This has been a common theme regardless of ENSO in recent years. Ridges have been growing stronger and more expansive. The spring pattern quickly flipped to the standard 2020s pattern.

CIPS is not super-honking (the threat is there - it's just more muted). If nothing else - I am hoping for an event where I am working from home for a change (or at least in the area...) That said - a confirmed TOR passed near me up in PA Saturday evening (the Houtzdale/Whiteside, PA one confirmed by CTP). Was a few miles away.

There has been a clear trend in the guidance for more favorable timing for our area.

The weekly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly rose to +3.6°C during the week centered around July 15. Only the 1982-83 and 1997-98 super El Niño events saw comparable or higher values. The last such anomaly occurred during the week centered around December 24, 1997 (+3.6°C). A strong El Niño is ongoing.