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2026-2027 Super El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Ensembles really want to hang onto this W pac forcing too. Competing Nina influence for the foreseeable future. -
Junorch obs and discussion 2026
Damage In Tolland replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Maybe lack of rain too . Not washing it away -
2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
I'm kind of in the same boat as you. Still, we've seen what marginal surface instability and good dynamics can do in these parts.- 742 replies
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Lucked into a couple of good storms last night and ended up with .96” for the night and 1.88” for the month.
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I realize there's a drought meme popularity that's vying for second place behind this other sweeping notion that some grand Disclosure ( the extent of which assuredly will trigger an ontological shock ) is looming... But so far, at least around here? absolutely 0 physical manifestation of any problem with water deficit. We go through this every year - promoted by U.S. Drought Monitoring and their primary sales agent, Kevin, emceeing a desiccation presentation... And, we also read this every year, too: "We go through this every year" Yet, y'all just can't wait to pack the reception hall for his brilliant geophysical Ted Talk on the matter... I guess it's an easy audience. We become stimulation junkies at a species level. In the absence of even vaguely legitimate reasons for concern from just about any agency for triggering at all, we're creating urgency.
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You hate to waste a summer month with those temperatures.
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Whopping. 05" last night. The ground almost got wet! Wet, I tell you!
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Even despite the factors this potential even has going for it - I'm kind of "meh" on it for now. Not necessarily truly meh - but I'm just not feeling it so far. Will see how things look once it gets closer in time. I suspect we won't really have any SOLID clarity until 11am the morning of lol.
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Nice. We had some decent wind but nothing too crazy. We did pick up much need rain 1"+ - it has been dry here since Memorial Day weekend.
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Actually looked at the forecast, and my high temps are still above normal this week. I know inland has "higher" expectations with AHATT
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Great, now there is a whole lot of media hype about the "cold blob" of water south of Greenland. Isn't that this the manifestation of the AMO heading towards the negative phase?
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
LVLion77 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Looking at the precip map, the Philly region south of Lansdale down to Wilmington DE did exceptionally well. The southern Poconos also did very well too. The Lehigh Valley and the far northern bucks and Montgomery counties did poorly. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I was just thinking that yesterday on a totally anecdotal level...the big heat this month hasn't seemed Nino like. Glad the empirical data jives with my hunch. -
Beautiful breezy morning here, I’m off work so the kids and I have been on the WV route 9 bike trail. June often delivers nice weather more than I expect.
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It looks like it didn’t even rain outside.
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0.15” imby/Columbia on Sunday evening.
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
canderson replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It feels glorious out this morning! -
I don’t buy paltry totals with the track on the euro. That flow and upglide into the piedmont is going to wring out everything
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Our fields are fine... Still with verdant green. In fact, Devens field - where there's ongoing Field Hockey and Soccer tournaments - is still uniform green across the 1/3 mile expanse. Granted it won't last ... and getting rain in timely dosing would also help longevity. But over the years, quite consistent with seasonality the fields and lawns will all but inevitably become stressed - some years less than others, earlier or later, but figure by mid summer as an average. Which we are only 30 days from as the Met crow flies, anyway. I realize there's no super cells, or blinding heat, or what-have-you loading syringes of dystopian dopa for your excitement addiction requirements, but tough. Sometimes you just have to endure nice days. Holy shit -
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
SPC maintains the 15% for D4 (Thursday) and mentions the usual fail potential alleys: clouds, timing, etc. That being said, any time you get a decent jet just to our north and a reasonably hot/humid airmass...interesting things can happen.- 742 replies
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I want 2 believe.jpeg
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I noticed that too. It’s definitely diminished though, but I’ve even seen a few oak dongs still coming down from the wind perhaps left over from a couple weeks ago.
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
MGorse replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
0.80 inches of rain here. Decent thunder and lightning but not much wind with the storms. -
AATT
