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Holy downpour out of nowhere.

If you aren’t the target audience for those posts then it’s not really surprising they don’t appeal to you.

Solid MCV soaker today.

The heat intensified in France today. All-time temperature records began melting from the relentless heat. Eleven locations set new all-time marks and 112 reached 40°C (104.0°F) or above. Paris-Jardin du Luxembourg reached 38.3°C (100.9°F), narrowly missing its June monthly record that was set on June 19th (38.4°C/101.1°F).

It mixes tomorrow into the upper 50s for dewpoints, NAM stays in the mid to upper 60s.

Its the RRFS but man those are some nasty updraft helicity tracks. Most I've seen for this area on any model.

I wanted to follow up on a post I did a few weeks ago and comments I got from that post. There is always lots of wx going on, domestically and globally. Talking about it is fine. Talking about high-end/impactful events is fine as well, But when it is all lopsided on basically one thing w/ obvious hype and pushing agenda, that becomes an issue, not only from a scientific POV, but also a public POV. Take these recent posts from a individual (I blocked out the name but it is not hard to figure out based on the graphics and the state mentioned most often) What is posted by this individual is almost always on heat, nothing else (look this individual's sites yourself). It's not just anomalous heat, it's typical heat, turning the ordinary into the extraordinary or making mountains out of molehills. Look at the first attachment. Head indices in FL this time of year 105-110 are normal almost every day in the summer. And 110+ in TX is common this time of year. Yet you get the headline "relentless heat" as if it is unusual or noteworthy? That's like saying, "relentless sunshine" and hyping up UV risk. Also, this obsession w/ the term "heat dome." First, that is made-up term for hype, nothing more. Second, not every ridge of high pressure is hot. Just b/c you have high 500 mb heights, does not necessarily translate to hot temps are the surface. We don't live at 18,000 ft! This is basic meteorology And of course ridges of high pressure will exist by default in the subtropics and tropics this time of year. That's normal. What would be noteworthy is if they didn't for any length of time! This would like saying that having 1200 tornadoes annually in the U.S. is atypical when that is the avg or stating the polar vortex forms and impacts wx in the cool season is a "problem," when it does this every year. The second image attached. I find this analysis on changes in 100+ heat index days in FL highly suspect. First, all value are multiples of ten. A true scientific analysis would not have nice even numbers all like this. Second, this ignores the heat island effect that is very pronounced in urban areas over the decades. And since most climate sites are close or in cities, this is the cherry-picking logical fallacy here. Only 2% of the global land area is urbanized, so see the problem here? This is distinct bias to promote a specific narrative more than anything. That's bad science, and misleads the public. Omission of facts is really no different than lying. And I see praise at times for individuals like this such as, "makes great graphics" or "is a good communicator." or "is popular/well-known." Yes, that is or can be true, but just b/c one does things great or is well-known, says nothing about one's credibility, skill, objectivity, or biases!

and here is the 12Z NAM models are all over the place typical of a system where T-storms will be the main heavy rain maker and its impossible to determine where they will go - there will be a wide range of totals region wide

DP 51 here

Mom and Dad, nice recipe! ….well done…. Happy Father’s Day. As always …..

Yeah lawn is already turning brown and stopped growing. Unheard of for June

Agree My first one as a dad.

not much change in the newest SPC day 2 outlook for our area, they held the TOR prob at 2% and mentioned too much uncertainty about degree of destabilization to warrant upgrading to 5%

To water the grass or not to water the grass is this rain coming or what

Crispy anvils and beers for all

Lot of crispy tcu going up. Can see your anvil bombs on the N-NW horizon. Fun day

Gorgeous weather. Bottle this up! .

Certainly would be nice if GFS is right about heavy rain across our area, but who knows. 12z HRRR has heavy rain going over our area, but obviously the day before it's very difficult for the models to predict which areas will get 1 to 2 inches and which areas only a quarter inch. Hopefully we'll get lucky with the heavy downpours. I'm desperate for heavy rain.

Not that unusual in super Nino events. I wouldn’t expect 24/7 +AAM and it’ll probably bounce back quickly.

Happy Summer Solstice! It's all downhill from here until Fall!

FWIW - the 12z CSU MLP maps have reduced quite a bit.

It's been great so far. But me thinks this rubber band is about to snap lol.

I know @bluewave brings this up a lot, but I will forever be fascinated by the clean phase 8 pass through in January 2022. With all of the competing Nina forcing going on, I don’t know how we pulled that off especially during an actual Nina.

I hope that stuff stays east of me. Got the grill going and don’t want to stand out in the rain