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I like what I see in the CAMs that go out to Tuesday evening (NAM Nest, HiResW FV3, RRFS). Multiple rounds of storms on a pre-frontal trough / wind shift, and possibly another line in the evening (although I suspect our environment will be worked over from the afternoon storms). Environmental parameters are solid. And for those looking to maximize rainfall, we could see an early round of storms late Monday night or early Tuesday morning as the warm front lifts to the northeast.

No one’s expecting it to be a major hurricane. Maybe a high end TS known for dumping a ton of rain.

Getting enough low-level shear was always in doubt for this event, especially once the warm front quickly retreated to the northeast during the late morning hours. The mid-level wind speeds underperformed a bit, relative to guidance, but there should have been enough deep-layer shear for fairly widespread wind, given the magnitude of the instability. I think you're correct that the profile was overall too moist to achieve high end wind event.

Oof that sucks. Hoping they get it back online today. Thankfully it's not brutally hot today

I certainly didn’t have any problems with the smell outside this morning but it definitely still looked very hazy to me, even at ground level.

I didn't know that either until a few years ago. Apparently parts of Scotland like the Scottland Highlands were also part of the same chain as the Appalachians at one point which is really cool.

Weak sauce, dont expect a major hurricane with the ragging nino

The latest drought monitor finally removed most of my area from the drought and I suspect Thursday will remove the rest of the area. It's thundering again now and a storm is about to move over from the N/NW. I hate that you guys can't catch a break, it was actually doing that here a little over a month ago. It would rain in a circle around my area into SW Va where Daniel Boone lives. This is the 30 day rainfall with the legend below. It's been a stark contrast from the Northern Plateau to Knox down to the Chattanooga area. Todays rain and storm are moving almost on that same path as the observed rainfall.

Bertha soon to be

All I do is look at 72-73,82-83,97-98,15-16 and say yea they were warm..its not hard to figure out..Also 2 if those years had a massive blizzard..So a crazy,insane, earth shattering nino does not mean it cant snow.And we've had snowless winters in La Nina's and neutral winters anyway, so there are other factors.

I use a Stratus. It’s not perfect and I don’t mess with melting down snow because well I’m lazy

Too many variables, too many different areas of forcing, PDO signal is a total mismatch from a super Nino. Climo is out the window

I’ve had mine for over a week now and really enjoying it! It was a breeze to set up and the app is great where it uploads its data to! Tempest costumer service has been great so far too. Everything seems pretty accurate when comparing it to nearby stations. Not sure about the wind readings though, but honestly I don’t live in a good place to get unobstructed and accurate wind readings (it’s mounted off my deck about 13 ft above the ground…other houses and trees still block wind flow). I highly recommend! The lightning detector on it is a super cool feature that you would have to pay for an add on device with other stations. Amazon right now has the Tempest on sale for like 25% off. You can buy for like $265 instead of normal price of $349.

Was at a friend’s house in Avery Creek yesterday and holy moly, that was one heck of a lightning storm. Hadn’t heard thunder that loud in a long time.

My USGS gauge is about 5-7 miles from my house. So the totals are almost never the same. Maybe get a Stratus manual rain gauge and compare that way. Definitely a nice day!

IDK, I think it’s a fantastic day to be outside.

There was quite blue skies this morning, but it's gotten progressively worse as the day goes on. Smoke and haze.

First, none of the seasonal models have had much skill for any of the winters over the last decade in terms of temperatures or 500 mb patterns. We are talking about the strongest El Niño on record so broad ENSO correlations which include weak and moderate El Niños will be outside climo for such strong events This was the case with both the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 events when the seasonal models defaulted to correlations that were much too cold for what transpired. Both those winters verified significantly warmer than the seasonal forecasts. With La Ninas the seasonal models haven’t been any better. We had two of the weakest La Ninas events last few winters following a super El Niño. So the general La Niña correlations the models used as forecasts didn’t work out very well. The models were too cold with their 2025-2026 CONUS forecast since the magnitude of the Western warmth was significantly greater than the cold in the East. Just by looking at any of the seasonal models would not have given any indication of the 2nd warmest winter on record for the CONUS. But I was happy to be in my area which had the first cold and snowy winter since 2014-2015. 2024-2025 was such a weak La Niña that the Nino 1+2 warming in late November which triggered a more Nino-like December was the 2nd warmest across the CONUS. January 2025 was the coldest of 2020s so far in a sea of warm which the seasonal models didn’t forecast. The models also missed the deep trough in the West for 2022-2023 winter since they went with a general La Niña composite which was too cool for the very warm winter in the East. During the 2021 -2022 winter the models missed the record +13 December in DFW. They also missed the colder and snowier January pattern. Much of this has to do with the seasonal models inability for forecast the MJO which has been getting stuck in the warmer phases due to the expanding Indio-Pacific warm pool with enhanced MC forcing. 19-20 was a big miss of how strong the SPV became leading to another warmer winter. So it just may be that since record warmth is running so far ahead of any record cold, there are just more opportunities for the models underestimate the warmth and run too cold. Pointing out these obvious model errors is more a function of me trying to arrive at a better overall understanding of what to expect in our new climate. It’s in no way an endorsement of how rapidly our winters and other seasons have warmed. I grew up in the 1970s so I can remember what really cold winters were like. My preferences are for any pattern which produces great snowstorms. I don’t mind if they occur in a milder winter. Since I am more about snowstorm quality than how long it says on the ground following the storm. Just cold enough to snow with a benchmark KU storm track is all I need to have an enjoyable winter.

Was thinking about getting a Tempest. .

Preliminarily, I think this event lands between +3.2 to +3.7 on the RONI. I will adjust accordingly as we get closer to October.

Hopefully more heat and smoke soon

12Z UKMET: 6th run in row with TS but dissipates off TX TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N 85.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.07.2026 0 27.1N 85.2W 1012 22 0000UTC 20.07.2026 12 27.9N 84.9W 1009 22 1200UTC 20.07.2026 24 27.6N 85.5W 1008 27 0000UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.2N 85.5W 1005 30 1200UTC 21.07.2026 48 28.8N 85.7W 1004 35 0000UTC 22.07.2026 60 29.3N 86.0W 1003 35 1200UTC 22.07.2026 72 29.4N 87.1W 1004 46 0000UTC 23.07.2026 84 29.2N 88.2W 1004 40 1200UTC 23.07.2026 96 28.0N 90.7W 1002 48 0000UTC 24.07.2026 108 28.1N 93.9W 1005 33 1200UTC 24.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

Look at how much everyone hates this weather in summer . Thankfully it’s fleeting

Not to mention, -PDO usually works against cold and snow. Funny that it’s magically now something that we want lmao.

More bulk shear and more low level curvature. 10-15 kt southeaserlies at the surface with 20 kt southerlies at 850 would have done the trick for tornadoes. Mid-Level dry air pocket for more widespread winds.