Ji Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Would be nice if the euro could beat the Gfs once this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 We all get deluged with rain from 144 on... even SNE sees close to 2" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Am I the only one watching the GGEM? I can't see temps, but the postion of the low looks like maybe snow for the MA. I guess we better watch the Euro tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Was gooing to call Lakes cutter, but the GFS has been saying it from the Getgo. The SE Ridge isn't bad to start out with, but since there is a stong unblocked northern Jet and the western ridge is too far west and retrograding, the storm makes it's own SE Ridge. Nina is Finally here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 both the gfs and the euro have the ridge just sliding east regardless of track... im not sure what to believe, tendency has been for coastals tho maybe we get some silly split again but warmer overall this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 So.. the euro shows a near prefect "southern low" trajectory... with one flaw. It also has a weaker low pass through the lakes during the same time. Net result.. 850's scorch everyone east of the mountains.. and get a glorified coastal with nothing but liquid to fall. But it gets better! Following it .. we get a massive cold shot.. (coldest of the season...) compliments of a huge PNA ridge out west.... plunging us into a very cold set up.... a very COLD and dry set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 00Z GFS OP and the GFS ensemble couldn't look more different in the medium and long range. The ensemble has a good look though with it keeping a ridge out west and a trough in the east. Ensembles say rain from for the upcoming storm as well though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 So.. the euro shows a near prefect "southern low" trajectory... with one flaw. It also has a weaker low pass through the lakes during the same time. Net result.. 850's scorch everyone east of the mountains.. and get a glorified coastal with nothing but liquid to fall. But it gets better! Following it .. we get a massive cold shot.. (coldest of the season...) compliments of a huge PNA ridge out west.... plunging us into a very cold set up.... a very COLD and dry set up. Isn't that a kick in the pants. Euro ensemble shows a low in the OV, lakes area as well but looking at the 850's maybe a chance for north and east of the cities? Has a weak high to the north but that scoots right out just before the storm. Keep that in place a little longer and maybe have it a little stronger then we might be talking some slop for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 00Z GGEM shows some potential. Surface would be iffy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 UKMET has a weak low running off the southeast coast that may give some people something and another low developing in Texas. Looks like the Texas low would lift to the west of us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Bos gets another 1.5" qpf on Euro on the coastal while BWI gets around .05" (days 5-6), so the seasonal trend continues.....except this time its all rain for Bos and most of NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 06GFS says rain. Long range looks warm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 06 GFS ensemble shows rain as well. Long range continues with the ridge in the west and the trough in the east. GFS and Euro Ensembles on their model runs lately have been advertising a weak to moderate +NAO for an extended period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 06 GFS ensemble shows rain as well. Long range continues with the ridge in the west and the trough in the east. GFS and Euro Ensembles on their model runs lately have been advertising a weak to moderate +NAO for an extended period of time. unless some blocking comes back, we're toast in a NINA but if its not going to snow, let it get warm for all I care because cold and dry sux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 NOGAPS show no mositure for Monday but Tuesday into Wednesday looks more promising. Does this low slide OTS or turn and come up the coast? wed_1_19.bmp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 So.. the euro shows a near prefect "southern low" trajectory... with one flaw. It also has a weaker low pass through the lakes during the same time. Net result.. 850's scorch everyone east of the mountains.. and get a glorified coastal with nothing but liquid to fall. But it gets better! Following it .. we get a massive cold shot.. (coldest of the season...) compliments of a huge PNA ridge out west.... plunging us into a very cold set up.... a very COLD and dry set up. I'm sure I don't need to say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 You see, what you're all doing is tracking rain. That's your problem right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 You see, what you're all doing is tracking rain. That's your problem right there. It has been really damn dry. Moisture of any type would be a nice change I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 So.. the euro shows a near prefect "southern low" trajectory... with one flaw. It also has a weaker low pass through the lakes during the same time. Net result.. 850's scorch everyone east of the mountains.. and get a glorified coastal with nothing but liquid to fall. But it gets better! Following it .. we get a massive cold shot.. (coldest of the season...) compliments of a huge PNA ridge out west.... plunging us into a very cold set up.... a very COLD and dry set up. the cold and dry will be transient so the torture will end. with the the NAO going positive... even with a PNA ridge, without the block the cold wont last. I dont know that its going to be a massive arctic shot here anyway, the models don't all agree on that. certainly for the northern plains it will be bitter cold. But beyond that we likely get a reprieve with milder weather for a week or two anyway. Maybe mid to late Feb will be the time for a bigger snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Truth is this pattern "reload" is the best thing for us. Not saying it will turn around later but it's freakin cold outside. With no snow on the horizon I'd just assume it get outta here. Come back when you decide to cooperate. Atlanta has more snow than we do. Enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 You see, what you're all doing is tracking rain. That's your problem right there. It's called killing time until the next threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 unless some blocking comes back, we're toast in a NINA but if its not going to snow, let it get warm for all I care because cold and dry sux Know some of the Mets had mentioned that they thought the NAO would relax for a period of time and then come back. If history is any indicator there's a good chance that will the case. I have noticed though that some of the runs of the op for the GFS and Euro lately do show a -NAO. Guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 the EURO 132 is a sight to be hold even if its rain. The low is east of ORF....there is heavy precip to the east of DC..a big fat hole over DC and the burbs and then precip well west and north of DC. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 the EURO 132 is a sight to be hold even if its rain. The low is east of ORF....there is heavy precip to the east of DC..a big fat hole over DC and the burbs and then precip well west and north of DC. I Ji, at this point I would not be surprised or amazed. Its a new england winter. It was projected to be a new england winter. I think, in the end, the last storm may include us, but otherwise, I,m not expecting anything more. Maybe 1 or 2" per storm but not much more. Its the seasonal trend. The snow hole of the east coast. Somethings you can';t change. This is one of them. Its beyond frustrating. Its the writing on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 the EURO 132 is a sight to be hold even if its rain. The low is east of ORF....there is heavy precip to the east of DC..a big fat hole over DC and the burbs and then precip well west and north of DC. I So it isn't the SNOW hole... it's the PRECIP hole. I'd love to see THAT pic. You know ... just to make me laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 So it isn't the SNOW hole... it's the PRECIP hole. I'd love to see THAT pic. You know ... just to make me laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 That's absolutely ridiculous. Mother nature is seriously F-ing with us. This is some pattern we're in. #FAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 That's absolutely ridiculous. Mother nature is seriously F-ing with us. This is some pattern we're in. #FAIL. Get ready for a wet late spring/summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Get ready for a wet late spring/summer. Haven't had a wet summer around here for awhile....we are gonna need it for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 both the gfs and the euro have the ridge just sliding east regardless of track... im not sure what to believe, tendency has been for coastals tho maybe we get some silly split again but warmer overall this time Both the gfs and euro ensembles indicate the negative nao is gone for now which will make it tough to get snow for awhile and suggests that the surface high will slide off the coast giving us trajectories off the ocean enough that I doubt there is much potential for snow or freezing rain unless you get well west of dc. The set up reminds me of last year's MLK storm. Nice track but the cold air is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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