Ji Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Donnie Sutherland is predicting the return of the -EPO by early Feb and he excepts the NE Cities(NYC and Boston) to have a above average snowfall month in Feb. Maybe this in when DC can score. I think we are screwed the next 2 weeks. At this point, my forecast for not one snowstorm for the area is looking good but i hope I am wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Both the gfs and euro ensembles indicate the negative nao is gone for now which will make it tough to get snow for awhile and suggests that the surface high will slide off the coast giving us trajectories off the ocean enough that I doubt there is much potential for snow or freezing rain unless you get well west of dc. The set up reminds me of last year's MLK storm. Nice track but the cold air is gone. Wes, how is the setup for LES out in Western MD and around Davis, WV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 You know it's bad when over half of the 06Z GFS members are all over the board with this storm and yet you can't find one that brings snow to our area except for some token flurries after the cold front comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Both the gfs and euro ensembles indicate the negative nao is gone for now which will make it tough to get snow for awhile and suggests that the surface high will slide off the coast giving us trajectories off the ocean enough that I doubt there is much potential for snow or freezing rain unless you get well west of dc. The set up reminds me of last year's MLK storm. Nice track but the cold air is gone. I had mentioned this earlier but I wonder if it really means anything. Don't have access to the Euro members but from looking at the long range GFS members on these runs it looks like their all over the place with no strong signal one way or the other. Would this make the NAO values basically valueless or is there something else that I am missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Both the gfs and euro ensembles indicate the negative nao is gone for now which will make it tough to get snow for awhile and suggests that the surface high will slide off the coast giving us trajectories off the ocean enough that I doubt there is much potential for snow or freezing rain unless you get well west of dc. The set up reminds me of last year's MLK storm. Nice track but the cold air is gone. How far West though Wes? Ive been hearing rumors in the office for two days now about an ice storm next week yet I see nothing on it. The 850s seem to be well South of DC for the leadup to this storm, There is a slight CAD signature on the GFS runs yesterday at the surface, but overall, I dont see where this is coming from. Even the HPC mentioned winter precip along the Northern Apps but I guess I assumed that was elevation specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Both the gfs and euro ensembles indicate the negative nao is gone for now which will make it tough to get snow for awhile and suggests that the surface high will slide off the coast giving us trajectories off the ocean enough that I doubt there is much potential for snow or freezing rain unless you get well west of dc. The set up reminds me of last year's MLK storm. Nice track but the cold air is gone. i want 65-70 at least one day in the next few weeks.. we deserve it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 i want 65-70 at least one day in the next few weeks.. we deserve it! That will just confuse the birds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 i want 65-70 at least one day in the next few weeks.. we deserve it! Booooo!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS coming in much colder at hr 96 not sure it's going to matter though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 CAD so far through hr 102? Actually makes sense because GFS has been showing that HP to the north and has caused me wonder why it wouldn't be a lengthy CAD event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS coming in much colder at hr 96 not sure it's going to matter though looks like the high is still going to go east etc. maybe some flurries in n md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 congrats michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z GFS at this point...starts out as ice for us changes to rain. NE major Ice Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 it will trend colder.. models have a hard time with CAD this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z GFS at this point...starts out as ice for us changes to rain. NE major Ice Storm. not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 850 -40's in nw can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 wow...check out the cold in NW canada! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_138s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Verbatim, 12Z GFS has about 18 hours of light precip with temps below freezing here, with around 0.25" accumulated before temps rise above 32. Will probably change, but at least it looks like some welcome significant totals overall from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This one might be worth a trip up to jonjon's not sure yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I guess GFS wants to go cold again this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I guess GFS wants to go cold again this run watch this one closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 oops somehow i missed this uber clipper looks like we have a really snowy end to the month ahead... get some rest now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Only 59 runs to go watch this one closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 watch this one closely It's either do that or work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 My how Ian feeds the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 cold/dry, warm/wet, cold/dry Nothing better than a cold shot after a driving rainstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 My how Ian feeds the weenies if it doesnt get to 70 in the final third of jan i think we might get a good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 if it doesnt get to 70 in the final third of jan i think we might get a good snow It's not getting to 70 no matter how much you want it....mid 50's maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 cold/dry, warm/wet, cold/dry Nothing better than a cold shot after a driving rainstorm! Thanks Fozz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 if it doesnt get to 70 in the final third of jan i think we might get a good snow That sounds like one of Wx53's old "rules" on when big snows can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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