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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 3


MotoWeatherman

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You have really been out front on this one Robert. Looks like the models are trending towards the thoughts you put out days ago. I like how the models are trending wetter and wetter in N GA and southwest NC. All that snow should be headed your way.:thumbsup:

Where is Dawson? He just got crushed on that run.:snowman:

Spent the whole day with the family. Wife hates me being on the computer all the time so when storms happen on the weekend it makes it harder to get on more frequently.

I'm happy with the 0z NAM and 18z GFS for MBY and yours. Ratios should be pretty high and almost all of the precip should be snow. Hard to believe.

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I think it has come down to dry air in NC. We've seen this before with precip having a hard time making headway. I think the only reason western NC get's more than eastern is b/c it's closer to the s/w before it weakens enough to reduce the lift. My only thoughts on that, is that the NAM/GFS generally have trouble shearing these s/w's out too much. The euro is generally much better with these types of setups. The best trend we could see is for this s/w to stay and strong/cutoff for as long as possible as it heads eastward.

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they continue inching north. I think they're still too dry overall, esp. west of the Apps. but atleast now they have some 1.00" amounts in Mississippi. Has .50 " overall for western Carolinas, which is 4 to 8" storm.

post-38-0-93227000-1294541732.gif

I know you mentioned the NAM as not being your favorite. Does that mean the SREF verifies better at this range? It has substantially more qpf over E TN than the NAM. It was pretty dry.

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Yep...hard to believe we are less than 24 hours from kickoff and it still looks this good for us. I do feel sorry that not everyone is going to case in on this but I sure am ready.

I do too. I think its impossible for a storm to get everyone basically, thats nature though and you win some you lose some. I'm optimistic for a lot of people to my west and southwest. I hope Georgia gets the hammer in a major way.

You have really been out front on this one Robert. Looks like the models are trending towards the thoughts you put out days ago. I like how the models are trending wetter and wetter in N GA and southwest NC. All that snow should be headed your way.:thumbsup:

Thanks. I forecast on the patterns, it's not happened yet, but we'll see. I've got some , missed some. I 'm pretty sure w. NC will walk away happy with this, and atleast extreme western SC and northern GA too. Very happy. Same for southern third of Tenn.

Where is Dawson? He just got crushed on that run.:snowman:

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So, if Chatt hits big on this storm (combined w/ the storm at Christmas) where will this season rank for that area in the past twenty years for snow assuming you get the accumulations mentioned by NWS? Seems like it has been a long, long time since that area of the South has been hit with repeated, substantial snow during winter.

Lovell Field only recorded 2.5 inches on Christmas day which is well below what most places received around town....So it will hold back this season unless we get bombed...If you take away the 93 blizz, Then you go back to 87 and 88 for back to back 10" seasons...Jan 88 was a direct hit here. There are more than a few 10-12" seasons before that interspersed with mainly La Nina zero years also (back to the drawing board on that one.)I have a snow history going back to 1920 at work...it will have to wait until Tuesday or Wednesday when I can get down my hill again!

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Ingredient number 1 is in place. Check out my signature and look at my temp graph. Arctic front moved thru at 130pm as my temps have nose dived since then. Down to 20.5 with a DP of 8.

Yep, 27 here with a DP of 8. DP is falling faster than the actual temp right now. FFC's mention of how temps have been above guidance does make me a bit nervous as I noticed we went well above our forecast high today (forecast 40, actual 46) and we aren't dropping very fast right now. Obviously surface temps are the least of our concerns right now, but every little bit below 32 helps.

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Yep, 27 here with a DP of 8. DP is falling faster than the actual temp right now. FFC's mention of how temps have been above guidance does make me a bit nervous as I noticed we went well above our forecast high today (forecast 40, actual 46) and we aren't dropping very fast right now. Obviously surface temps are the least of our concerns right now, but every little bit below 32 helps.

I think the arctic front was a little delayed as I hit 41 when GFS had me stuck below freezing which obviously didn't happen. I bet highs tomorrow will be right in line with "guidance" or colder now that the arctic front has cleared the area.

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I think it has come down to dry air in NC. We've seen this before with precip having a hard time making headway. I think the only reason western NC get's more than eastern is b/c it's closer to the s/w before it weakens enough to reduce the lift. My only thoughts on that, is that the NAM/GFS generally have trouble shearing these s/w's out too much. The euro is generally much better with these types of setups. The best trend we could see is for this s/w to stay and strong/cutoff for as long as possible as it heads eastward.

exactly what its doing so far.

Robert

What are you considering western NC? Most of the time we here our area as North West NC? Are we looking at your area through Hickory? It looks to be going to where you said it would 5 days ago. You nailed the Christmas Storm in the end as well.thumbsupsmileyanim.gif You looking good!

the SREF looks more and more robust for you, so the model means have crept north, so you'd probably get about the same as here, and maybe more since the incoming 5H vort late Monday night would possibly help out northern NC and you have colder temps. Its a tough call.

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Robert,

I am seeing posts about the dry air and reasoning why NC is modeled with less QPF. When I saw mention of Dec, 2000, it brought back PAINFUL MEMORIES (oh yeah...Jim Cantore CURSED US on that one). I am lock step with your thoughts on the evolution of the 5H, the vertical lift hanging around, etc. However, is there a certain % chance that we could get TOTALLY SCREWED, due to the air being so dry, even with moderate lift? I do believe we fare a better chance than a lot of our North Carolina brothers and sisters, because we are further south and west to be able to share in the lift before it starts breaking up. I am not greedy and will settle for even a dusting, but man...I do not want a repeat of last year where we end up with some rain showers. Thanks for any input for me to learn from...

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the SREF looks more and more robust for you, so the model means have crept north, so you'd probably get about the same as here, and maybe more since the incoming 5H vort late Monday night would possibly help out northern NC and you have colder temps. Its a tough call.

I really hope this thing continues to trend stronger and gets us good here, since we've been screwed so much, and also pounds N. GA and the upstate, we are all overdue. :snowman:

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Ingredient number 1 is in place. Check out my signature and look at my temp graph. Arctic front moved thru at 130pm as my temps have nose dived since then. Down to 20.5 with a DP of 8.

wow - we were talking how it felt a lot colder but i hadnt bothered to check! its 21.1 here with a dewpoint of 10 lol. not only do we have ingredient number 1, but its usually the one we are missing!

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Yep, 27 here with a DP of 8. DP is falling faster than the actual temp right now. FFC's mention of how temps have been above guidance does make me a bit nervous as I noticed we went well above our forecast high today (forecast 40, actual 46) and we aren't dropping very fast right now. Obviously surface temps are the least of our concerns right now, but every little bit below 32 helps.

Lol, Yep, I'm at 31 with a 14.9 dp. And it is on it's way down. Hard to believe 'cause for most storms it is a struggle just to get this low. T

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Here are the current 2" soil temps across Georgia. Tonights hard freeze should set the stage for snow to accumulate easier.

I was literally about to post that! Tonight should really cool the ground down. If we could some clouds in here earlier we would really be set

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Here are the current 2" soil temps across Georgia. Tonights hard freeze should set the stage for snow to accumulate easier.

That's a beautiful map to be sure....it's been a long time around here since we've had a major winter storm when the preceding morning had a low in the upper teens. Regardless of what happens with the QPF, it's gonna be really interesting to see how fast it accumulates with these air and ground temps (not to mention nighttime). Now that we're less than 20 hrs or so away from the beginning, it's hard to imagine the models totally failing at this juncture. I know anything can happen in the SE, but a model failure like this in the home stretch would be epic. Epically bad.

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Dude. What in the world? Are they looking at precip vs. temps in the form of timing wrong? I just went back and looked at the GFS 850's and precip modeling and I don't find their reasoning?:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

The 850's are too warm especially on the last GFS model according to them. Sadly, they're probably right.

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