moneypitmike Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 06z DGEX takes the low right over GON to BOS. Wasn't Steve calling this an ice storm potential earlier????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 06z DGEX takes the low right over GON to BOS. Yeah, I mentioned this in the NNE thread. Over BOS then slows to about Kennebunkport and then due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 DT calling for a complete miss lol I haven't seen anything from him since last night's runs. I know he was leaning more of a se/ma event while other mets were thinking further up the coast due to retreating nao. He is a smart guy and will admit defeat when it happens...sometimes he gets emotionally invested and holds onto an idea when it seems to be fading. This has always seemed like one to come up. I think up here we get our chances this year when the blocking relaxes a bit or really retrogrades west enough to not squash. I like the idea of a mini warmup to bring some opportunities up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 My crappy ability of reading maps notwithstanding, the ensmebles really made me simile along with the ops GFS/EC. Hey--will I need to fire up the snowblower when I get home tomorrow? Chris in Greenfield reported 4" , 7" here, you probabbly got at least 6". I shoveled because the snow is so light. I don't like using the snowblower as it tends to blow dirt in with snow and I'd rather get a workpout and have pristine, well sculpted snowbanks that would make Blizz envious. Have fun and get back befoore the bigger snow that appears to be in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nice to wake up and read some good optimism for this week's system. I would love a nice, normal 5-9", 6-10" type of deal at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I would love a nice, normal 5-9", 6-10" type of deal at this point Yup, region wide Boston to the Berkshires would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Chris in Greenfield reported 4" , 7" here, you probabbly got at least 6". Was a little disappointed to see B'east reporting only 5". Same with Butternut, and judging by radar yesterday I would've thought they'd picked up 8-10 at least. Inverse ski resort reporting rule? Was hoping to dust off the boards tonight for the first time this winter, but 5" of fluff'll be mostly gone by the time the lights come on, especially since less than half the terrain is open, and we can't venture into the trees for it yet. As for the Miller A threat, it's nice to see a little life in the SE ridge on the euro. Encouraging.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think the ots option is off the table imo. If anything it may come close to the coast imo, but we'll see. See no real reason to stray from what I said on Wednesday.....between Messenger and ACK waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yup, region wide Boston to the Berkshires would be nice. Berks to Bangor to Bos is my hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 this has a pretty good chc for most of the region i think. at this point, the only thing that probably spares me from a complete rain event is the seasonal trend of the block to (hopefully) keep this a hair to my southeast. but i'd feel good if i was anywhere in SNE and up into NNE really, right now. does look fairly progressive so i wouldn't expect a blockbuster but who knows. there were some hints in earlier runs of trying to slow it down too. plenty of time... Yea, no way am I gonna call for a blockbuster from a fairly progressive ,Miller A.....I'm thinking 8-16", preliminarily. Of course, a torch in wait.....the only time they happen this year is right after I get a nice snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 BTW, this is not a miller a so the thread title should be changed. Yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yea, no way am I gonna call for a blockbuster from a fairly progressive ,Miller A.....I'm thinking 8-16", preliminarily. Of course, a torch in wait.....the only time they happen this year is right after I get a nice snowfall. Lol Euro LR blows chunks all year with the pattern, changes every run every day, zero credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Lol Euro LR blows chunks all year with the pattern, changes every run every day, zero credence. I'm not locking it.....just saying that it would figure with my luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yea, no way am I gonna call for a blockbuster from a fairly progressive ,Miller A.....I'm thinking 8-16", preliminarily. Of course, a torch in wait.....the only time they happen this year is right after I get a nice snowfall. yeah we'll see how it evolves. for once i'd actually tell you to be cautiously optimistic...but it's still early. LOL. do you still have snow on the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm not locking it.....just saying that it would figure with my luck. Yup. The timing of the torching really sucks. Complete wipe out of last weeks snow, followed by cold, a light coating today . . . maybe a blockbuster next week . . . followed by torch. . . . rinse and repeat. Just hoping it doesn't torch too bad next weekend if we do end up getting a decent snow next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Op euro does look torchy at the end, and I'm not a big fan of that nina-esque troughing off the pac NW, but with huge -sd's in central canada, and a SE ridge that's been anywhere from mediocre to non-existent this year, there seems like at least decent potential for miller b-age or SWFEs after MLK day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I feel pretty confident in a good swath of moderate (>4") snow across SNE, with 6" to 12" for someone in the northern MA to SNE. Too bad this can't dig more. Not much compressibility in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS is fugly.....let's hope it's wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yes it is. I thought this was dying energy in the se that gets acted on by strong northern stream ... isn't that hybrid? or milller b? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The 5h setup looks eerily similar to March 1960. Critical difference that may or may not have a transitive negative factor is that 19000 foot depth (~579DM) to the 500mb level over FL, 24 hours prior to the trough passing through TV, as well as having balanced geostrophic wind speed of < 50kts back in 1960. That indicated that the trough would encounter less resistance/shearing/disappearing act as it arrived (helping to induce better WAA response and better cyclogenesis overall when that happens ) Doesn't mean the 50-70 kts and 582dm this time can't be overcome, but the jet max associated with this Pac impulse had better be one powerful pulse. In fact, the 06z NAM shows exactly that with 45+units of PV! That's sick. I also like that fact that this impulse is approaching from the W and not a subsumer from the N. These N stream divers and/or SPV fragments don't fair well against ambient la nina relative positive anomalies in the deep south and southeast. They come down and their wind maxes disappear in the rage. One thing the recent KU storm had that the phantom (save CT) snow event this go doesn't is that for about a 2 day window the heights S really did unilaterally weaken substantially enough ...timing well. That really allowed the dig/phase to not get stolen away by the goggle up factor of too much wind in the mid-levels. As for next week, we can pull it off because the impulse approach does not mechanically interface with the deep south medium and that by circumstance conserves more of its jet dynamics. I like the idea of keeping it moving because of it all. Cheers to the ECMWF/DGEX blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm not locking it.....just saying that it would figure with my luck. And with a bomb...but a short torch is acceptable if it keeps the stormy pattern going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I can't say I understand the GFS theme of operational OTS with the ensembles consistently northwest. Does anyone have any ideas about why this is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS is fugly.....let's hope it's wrong Wait for the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wait for the ensembles. Yes, although they are less useful I think the closer in we get to game time.....I'm currently having a hot fling with the Nogaps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Will I was just reviewing the 1960 March 3-5th storm ... That was a sweet event! What were the totals on that? The storm cam up to about 40N and then only drifted E...end as a Norlun that extended back all the way to NYS. That would be an awesome way to end a Nor'easter - not abrupt end as the CCB head pulls away and you burst into sun, but a slow Norlun cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Will I was just reviewing the 1960 March 3-5th storm ... That was a sweet event! What were the totals on that? The storm cam up to about 40N and then only drifted E...end as a Norlun that extended back all the way to NYS. That would be an awesome way to end a Nor'easter - not abrupt end as the CCB head pulls away and you burst into sun, but a slow Norlun cash in. ACK had over 30" in that!! That's their biggest storm. Everyone else had like 10-22" or so iirc. I don't have the book with me, but I think areas had 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ACK had over 30" in that!! That's their biggest storm. Everyone else had like 10-22" or so iirc. I don't have the book with me, but I think areas had 2'. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1960_nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ACK had over 30" in that!! That's their biggest storm. Everyone else had like 10-22" or so iirc. I don't have the book with me, but I think areas had 2'. Yeah, I have the KU book open at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Holy macaroni was that a sick deal. White Plains NY 27", Brockton Ma 30", Nantucket 30"... Everyone in eastern MA had over 20 with 24" common. The storm went down to 964mb! Hurricane winds on the coast and severe blizzard conditions for everyone in eastern sections - wow. If that had slowed down at all that would have been king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS in usual OTS mode...Euro/GGEM/Gapper/Ensembles big hits. laaaaaa laaaaa lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.