dendrite Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 For shiats and giggles... 1"+ for a little area around TAN/GHG. Large area of 0.50-1.00" from S VT/N NH/C ME and the rest of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The 5h setup looks eerily similar to March 1960. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The 5h setup looks eerily similar to March 1960. Jerry just got a woody in his sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The 5h setup looks eerily similar to March 1960. 32" in Westchester with that event. Was that a dying Gulf low that got reinvigorated by the northern stream? Didn't we also have a huge Alaska block in that event, classic -EPO block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 32" in Westchester with that event. Was that a dying Gulf low that got reinvigorated by the northern stream? Didn't we also have a huge Alaska block in that event, classic -EPO block? There was a huge AK block and the NAO block was almost identical...its actually almost that exact pattern to a T....the only minor difference is the Euro tracks 5h just a shade north of that event so it explodes a bit later and further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 32" in Westchester with that event. Nantucket, Massachusetts reported 31.3 in (80 cm) of snow. They would probably change to rain on this run, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Will talk to me about why Miller Rays are perceived as NG for us. Also now I know what you went through at college with rotted remains of LES, sugar covering mod snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Will talk to me about why Miller Rays are perceived as NG for us. Also now I know what you went through at college with rotted remains of LES, sugar covering mod snow. Pure Miller As rarely give us huge totals...they are fine overall, but most of our historic storms are miller Bs...Mar 1960 was a Miller B...or a hybrid, it definitely had a strongish primary in the OH Valley and redeveloped off MA coast. Its not always as black and white as "definitely Miller A" or "definitely Miller B"...you can have some hybrid type storms. March 1960 is probably a good example...it had a lot of Miller B characteristics but at one point the low did originate in the gulf and then tracked into the OH valley. But Miller Bs are usually the best (or hybrids) because they are intensifying at their most rapidly in a good spot for us...pure Miller As have usually maxed out before they get here so we end up with a more run of the mill type Nor' Easter totals....and of course we get the occasional Miller A that never even makes it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 March 3-4, 1960 H5 hgts H85 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Haven't looked at the EURO because I'm without my laptop for a few days, but it must be progressive judging from QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Haven't looked at the EURO because I'm w-thout my laptop for a few days, but it must be progressive judging from QPF. Its relatively progressive...probably about a 15-18 hour event. Based on everything else I saw, I actually would have expected qpf to be a little more in the CCB, but it doesn't really matter at this stage. It looks like a major storm on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Its relatively progressive...probably about a 15-18 hour event. Based on everything else I saw, I actually would have expected qpf to be a little more in the CCB, but it doesn't really matter at this stage. It looks like a major storm on the Euro. Same.....that wold produce more than 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 There was a huge AK block and the NAO block was almost identical...its actually almost that exact pattern to a T....the only minor difference is the Euro tracks 5h just a shade north of that event so it explodes a bit later and further east. What are the differences in the pattern...there must be some if March 1960 produced over 30".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What are the differences in the pattern...there must be some if March 1961 produced over 30".... March 1960.... That one dug just a shade deeper at 5h...but really there isn't much difference aside from that. It probably tapped a lot more gulf moisture because if its further south trough. In March too the gulf can be really juicy as compared to January. So even if the exact same 5h setup occurred again, I wouldn't expect it to be as nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 March 1960.... That one dug just a shade deeper at 5h...but really there isn't much difference aside from that. It probably tapped a lot more gulf moisture because if its further south trough. In March too the gulf can be really juicy as compared to January. So even if the exact same 5h setup occurred again, I wouldn't expect it to be as nuts. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1960_nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 March 1960.... That one dug just a shade deeper at 5h...but really there isn't much difference aside from that. It probably tapped a lot more gulf moisture because if its further south trough. In March too the gulf can be really juicy as compared to January. So even if the exact same 5h setup occurred again, I wouldn't expect it to be as nuts. Well, as modeled, that would not be a general 5-10".....BS. Tonight's inverted BS was more prolific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Euro has a huge torch at 240h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Euro has a huge torch at 240h. 2m temps in the 60s in the OH Valley and -40s in Manitoba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 2m temps in the 60s in the OH Valley and -40s in Manitoba. Nice gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nice gradient. It looks like the arctic air will move in after the cutter. We just need the low forming along the arctic front to be further south, although I suspect it's going to be a snow-->rain event for NYC. I do like the set-up after Day 10 though with a nice west-based -NAO block and all the cold on our side of the Pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It looks like the arctic air will move in after the cutter. We just need the low forming along the arctic front to be further south, although I suspect it's going to be a snow-->rain event for NYC. I do like the set-up after Day 10 though with a nice west-based -NAO block and all the cold on our side of the Pole. Its no guarantee we even torch...well it will def have a chance to be a bit milder, but we might keep the pattern stretched into more of a gradient. It could be a huge ridge east too, its hard to say. But regardless, the cold wouldn't be gone for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It looks like the arctic air will move in after the cutter. We just need the low forming along the arctic front to be further south, although I suspect it's going to be a snow-->rain event for NYC. I do like the set-up after Day 10 though with a nice west-based -NAO block and all the cold on our side of the Pole. It's fairy tale land, but there's some sneaky low level cold in QB. It may turn out we get some mixed bag chances in NE down the road as these primaries cut toward the lakes. That's a long ways off though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Its no guarantee we even torch...well it will def have a chance to be a bit milder, but we might keep the pattern stretched into more of a gradient. It could be a huge ridge east too, its hard to say. But regardless, the cold wouldn't be gone for long. yeah, nice trough over Japan on Day 10 JB rule that means a trough on the east coast within 7 days or so http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011010800!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ECMWF ensemble mean take the storm over ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Euro ensembles seem like they are slowly creeping warmer in the 11-15 day. They are not nearly as cold as the gfs ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Euro ensembles seem like they are slowly creeping warmer in the 11-15 day. They are not nearly as cold as the gfs ensembles. What do you think of the Mar '60 analog? Obviously not predicting that storm....but check the Kocin book on page 387. Its unbelievable how similar the pattern is..everything from the -NAO block hanging on to the AK ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What do you think of the Mar '60 analog? Obviously not predicting that storm....but check the Kocin book on page 387. Its unbelievable how similar the pattern is..everything from the -NAO block hanging on to the AK ridge. Wow, that's scary...lol. The 500mb pattern is almost identical, especially with how the H5 trough is elongated and gets sort of kicked east as its negatively tilted. Good find! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow, that's scary...lol. The 500mb pattern is almost identical, especially with how the H5 trough is elongated and gets sort of kicked east as its negatively tilted. Good find! Yeah no ridge in the west but big AK block...big NAO block trying to hang on for dear life....its almost the same exact pattern to a T....obviously the devil is in the details, but it shows you can have a big storm in this pattern. That one is for zucker...big -PNA but big -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It's coming. Think it'll be a monster for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What do you think of the Mar '60 analog? Obviously not predicting that storm....but check the Kocin book on page 387. Its unbelievable how similar the pattern is..everything from the -NAO block hanging on to the AK ridge. Will, do you think it could be that strong, with that kind of wind and cold weather? That was an amazingly dynamic storm! Intense low pressure, high winds, Nantucket got like 32" of snow and there was a wide area of a foot plus amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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