CT Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's funny the differences between the 12z and 18z NAM at 500mb are huge. 12z had the ULL diving underneath us (blizzard, probably) while the 18z has an enlongated ULL and winds up producing a nice inverted trough. It's going to take some time to figure out exactly what will happen. 18z NAM was nice... but 12z was sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Solid, solid run. Looking forward to the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah, but I can see it in the distance. Maybe they'll send me the "short bus" instead. GC does quite well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's funny the differences between the 12z and 18z NAM at 500mb are huge. 12z had the ULL diving underneath us (blizzard, probably) while the 18z has an enlongated ULL and winds up producing a nice inverted trough. It's going to take some time to figure out exactly what will happen. 18z NAM was nice... but 12z was sweet. No doubt the 12z NAM was going to be a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The only thing that is disappointing I guess...is that the 18z NAM changed dramatically from it's 12z depiction of the PV centered near Columbus, OH at 84 hours...it looks like a 12z GFS/12z NAM blend at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 cant wait for the 18z NAM ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's funny the differences between the 12z and 18z NAM at 500mb are huge. 12z had the ULL diving underneath us (blizzard, probably) while the 18z has an enlongated ULL and winds up producing a nice inverted trough. It's going to take some time to figure out exactly what will happen. 18z NAM was nice... but 12z was sweet. yep...same thinking...the NAM took a jump towards the GFS with it's PV placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's funny the differences between the 12z and 18z NAM at 500mb are huge. 12z had the ULL diving underneath us (blizzard, probably) while the 18z has an enlongated ULL and winds up producing a nice inverted trough. It's going to take some time to figure out exactly what will happen. 18z NAM was nice... but 12z was sweet. Ultimately it slowed the s/w just off Cape Cod at 60h on the 18z NAM by several hours while maintaining speed on the other systems. I'd like to see that continue. Still a lot of time and so much changes each six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah--congrats Nassau/Fairfield counties on this run through 78. Yeah, 1-1.25 barely into me so far, go HVN really. I'll, uh, take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 cant wait for the 18z NAM ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah the lead impulse from the southern stream outruns everything while staying rather weaker than what the 12z run had. Also the NAM now has the SPV over LK Erie or eastern MI instead of over OH. 12z NAM would have ended as a bomb IMHO, but 18z run was good as well. Still a lot of run to run inconsistencies. 00z Thursday should give us a better clue as to what is happening with this potential winter storm/inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 not too bad for an ens run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Let's play, "What In Sam Hell Is The 18Z GFS Going To Do" 1) sheared remnant of poet dream cast asunder in the mirky mire of never realized desire... 2) AHHHHHHAAH! Call the National Guard - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I like how theres a finger of heavier precip right up the CT River Valley...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It was joke, can't wait for the JMA assembles? Hey, does anyone have that run - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It was joke, can't wait for the JMA assembles? Hey, does anyone have that run - surface, similar to the other globals i guess http://grib2.com/animate/foreign_loops.php3?type=CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP&width=1280&height=1024&model=JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 ...TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST D2/D3... THE NAM AND CMC ARE ON THE SLOWER AND DEEPER SIDE OF THE MODEL SOLS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCD SFC FEATURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON D3. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FLATTER GFS/UKMET AND ECMWF SOLNS ARE FAVORED GIVEN THEIR GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. well ... that's certainly good ole news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It looks to be the American Models vs the Foreign Models debate once again with this setup, quite frustrating at this moment. I think you can bet on a stronger and faster northern stream disturbance than currently modeled. I hope the models trend towards a stronger SPV passage than what the CMC and EURO are showing as well as the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 haha SWFE with an Arctic high FTW Nice! I was looking forward to a NORLUN or inverted trough threat friday rather than a potential rube goldberg comedy of model runs. But man I love those SWFE's (result of that radar shot in your avatar, Dec 2007 ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I like how theres a finger of heavier precip right up the CT River Valley...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I like how theres a finger of heavier precip right up the CT River Valley...... And nothing at all for most of the Kennebec and Androscoggin drainages. Glad it won't pan out exactly that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 man you guys are going to freak when you see the 18z DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And nothing at all for most of the Kennebec and Androscoggin drainages. Glad it won't pan out exactly that way. I know.....those sim radars are bunk.....but fun to poke fun at that whole CT River Valley thing..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 man you guys are going to freak when you see the 18z DGEX think that's yesterday's run, john. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 think that's yesterday's run, john. No, I just seriously think you guys are gonna flip when you see the 18z DGEX - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I like how theres a finger of heavier precip right up the CT River Valley...... That little strip of green is the eastern slope of the berks, not the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 No, I just seriously think you guys are gonna flip when you see the 18z DGEX - To be fair, when don't we flip over a DGEX run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 That little strip of green is the eastern slope of the berks, not the valley. Well at that scale who gives a rip....I'll give it to you......and take the nice green blob right over Hartford..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GC does quite well.. any further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 not too bad for an ens run: Thanks Phil, from that position we're talking 75-100 miles for something much nicer. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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