weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Still....a snow event to freshen everything up and tendency to give parts of SE regions bigger snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 lol doesn't phase the PV at all. Worlds apart from the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I see what's going on.... The flow being too fast in the deep south and southeast is rearing its ugly factor here. The southerly impulse(s) can't slow down - they get bottle rocketed through the area and this timing screws up the phase potential. That is exactly what the problem is and has been with this system since the get go. I posted this factorization issue out in the main thread as a matter of fact, and the NAM and Euro runs are now out right showing why it is better to have less mlv wind prior to trough arrival. Best hope here I suspect is to go with no phase at all and do like the NAM suggests - SPV only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Verbatim not a bad event for ene. A couple ticks better and it's time to start honking It looks to me like its a step back from direct PV involvement with the development of the surface low, but doesn't necessarily mean the storm threat is dead. S/W amplification FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 LOL, compare the gfs and euro at H5. Gonna be a while to figure this out. I like how the ULL starts to move under sne at hr 102. On the droid...will take a closer look in a few. Im sure this will still waffle around some but im starting to like the looks of this. We'll see I guess. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Does the Euro give those not in ENE any snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Still....a snow event to freshen everything up and tendency to give parts of SE regions bigger snows. those who have some to be freshened, that is. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 On the droid...will take a closer look in a few. Im sure this will still waffle around some but im starting to like the looks of this. We'll see I guess. Lol. The thing I don't like right now, and Tip hinted at this, is how fast the first s/w kicks ots. If that slowed or sharpened just a little, then it would be a much better outcome. Once again, another interesting evolution..this will take time to figure out. Probably not until 00z Thursday anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Does the Euro give those not in ENE any snow? 0.30-0.40ish for you. At least a couple of inches via long duration for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Does the Euro give those not in ENE any snow? Prob 2-4 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 0.30-0.40ish for you. At least a couple of inches via long duration for everyone. Thanks dude. I'd like to make a friendly recommendation...If we could somehow include all areas of SNE in our discussions of what various models show..esp when we can't access the Euro freebies yet...It's tough when people just post about eastern NEW England or Western new Eng. Those not in those areas have no idea what is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Does the Euro give those not in ENE any snow? Yeah even I'd get an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 well if the pv is just sitting up there what happens next? PV split n dump? meaning splits and the western lobe dumps into storm # 2 and pulls it up the coast? OR does it hold together and we get screwed by sotrm 1 and storm 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 When does the Euro have the snow starting Thursday nite..or Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Does the Euro give those not in ENE any snow? Less but yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 1-3 for GC up through sw NH. 2-4 for REV-ORH-just east of CON. 2-4/3-5 for BOS through PVD. 6"+ GHG-UUU and points se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What about the Portland, ME area? I just want a couple inches out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Thanks dude. I'd like to make a friendly recommendation...If we could somehow include all areas of SNE in our discussions of what various models show..esp when we can't access the Euro freebies yet...It's tough when people just post about eastern NEW England or Western new Eng. Those not in those areas have no idea what is going on. sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 how much qpf does it give for manchester nh ? Can't seem to find a qpf map on the site I look at the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 1-3 for GC up through sw NH. 2-4 for REV-ORH-just east of CON. 2-4/3-5 for BOS through PVD. 6"+ GHG-UUU and points se. Any semblance of the norlun on there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 LOL, compare the gfs and euro at H5. Gonna be a while to figure this out. I like how the ULL starts to move under sne at hr 102. Would slowing down the phasing of the ULL and allowing for the lead vort to get out of the away potentially allow for more amplification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What about the Portland, ME area? I just want a couple inches out of this. .25-.50" qpf, .75" Central ME....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Any semblance of the norlun on there? Yeah a little bit over LI into NYC and srn CT at hr 84, but as the storm develops, we lose the NORLUN and the general circulation takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Thanks dude. I'd like to make a friendly recommendation...If we could somehow include all areas of SNE in our discussions of what various models show..esp when we can't access the Euro freebies yet...It's tough when people just post about eastern NEW England or Western new Eng. Those not in those areas have no idea what is going on. Well when I said a few inches of snow, more SE areas it pretty much told the tale I think Cape verbatim gets low end warning while just about everyone else gets advisory level event. Parts of ME however may score later in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 sorry No..it wasn't directed at anyone in particular..But because most of the guys that have early Euro access live in ENE they tend to just post on their area...and those of us in Central or western sections sometimes feel like we're gonna get screwed..i get so worried when i see posts about ENE specials..I'm close enought to ENE to still get some snow..but it still worries me when i see that. No biggie though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Would slowing down the phasing of the ULL and allowing for the lead vort to get out of the away potentially allow for more amplification? I don't believe there is any phasing in this run... This is excruciating to look at really... probably the worst run to date for this system seeing that southern stream whip out like that completely oblivious to the subsume attempt by the SPV. SPV arrives and there is no one left at the party, so it just rots. So look what happens... we get whiffed by the southern stream, which looks too hyper-developed btw, then the SPV just tries to damp and fill in at 120 hours. If there were a better example of the anit-snow-for-you physics running in the model it would be a shock. lol And, the AWESOME part is that the system later on doesn't have a prayer in this run. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 thank god this isnt finale yet and we have a couple of days of flip flopping to do before we actualy know just the models doing what they always do for every storm.im thankful I dont fall for it and go back and fourth with them,which means tomorrow will be an ON day for good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ray wants to know how the Ukie looks?????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 .25-.50" qpf, .75" Central ME....... Thanks, sound like a 2-4ish deal. I hope that is the bottom of the barrel and it goes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Thanks dude. I'd like to make a friendly recommendation...If we could somehow include all areas of SNE in our discussions of what various models show..esp when we can't access the Euro freebies yet...It's tough when people just post about eastern NEW England or Western new Eng. Those not in those areas have no idea what is going on. I endorse this recommendation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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