radarman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Mt. Tolland might get more snow than anyone in this storm. Yes, H7 low wrapping in a lot of dry air north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 108 says bye bye. sne and wne do fairly well. screwed north of the pike. terrible run in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Mt. Tolland might get more snow than anyone in this storm. Almost reminds me of how i got 13" of snow on 2/25/90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well that was kind of meh, but it shows you how complicated things are. This is why we don't fall in love with the 12z gfs from yesterday. However, every run has done something different, so we are by no means, done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 12z GFS continues to show its progressive bias with the southern stream energy and SPV energy IMO. I don't think this will end up being the right solution, but something more in the lines of a 12z NAM/GFS combination. More like an in between solution, where the low might track a tad bit to the east of the 40n/70w benchmark position. Still some time left to go before we gain any confidence in any one solution. Right now i like how the model that was furthest north with the track of the SPV is now more in line with the rest of the guidance with a further south tracking SPV in the 00z CMC. I am still leaning towards a 37n/75w to 40n/70w H5 track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Thru 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well that was kind of meh, but it shows you how complicated things are. This is why we don't fall in love with the 12z gfs from yesterday. However, every run has done something different, so we are by no means, done. We have the NAM. Let's see if CMC can pull out the all out blizzard card for us that it did last night....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 That run would drive Ray off the board for a week if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 That run would drive Ray off the board for a week if it verified. I'm going to stop following this system if it doesn't show a Feb '78 within the next 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 That run would drive Ray off the board for a week if it verified. It's the only way I'll ever get more than 14..and it's the GFS at day 3...so we know how that'll turn out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I wanted to say 38-39n not 37n, that is way too far south, just looked at the LAT/LON for Eastern US, I made a simple mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I wish the first low would just be like a fart in the wind and scram out of here, like the euro had. That would probably allow cyclogenesis, closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's the only way I'll ever get more than 14..and it's the GFS at day 3...so we know how that'll turn out This run gives you like 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I posted that earlier and they ripped me apart You did not get ripped, You said it was more of a CNE/SNE deal, This run has SE CT and NE ME as the areas that jackpot with a big snow hole in the middle....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The PV is really doing what it needs to do to give ENY and southern NE a decent event, but then it jumps everything to that offshore low just when it looked like we were ready to crank. That could be suspect... ' It does give me and SE to Kevin like .5" so we should be happy anyway. until the next run. I like the trend at 500mb bring the PV further south...almost there...just not quite enough. It's still out at the 90-110 hour range...and the changes that are needed are subtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I like the trend at 500mb bring the PV further south...almost there...just not quite enough. It's still out at the 90-110 hour range...and the changes that are needed are subtle. It certainly was a positive trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 I wish the first low would just be like a fart in the wind and scram out of here, like the euro had. That would probably allow cyclogenesis, closer to the coast. Instead looks more like a fart under the covers ..that lingers and to get rid of you have to wave the covers up and down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 This run gives you like 7". Well yeah if you're taking qpf verbatim and nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Don't kill the messenger but GFS is advertising a Dec 11-12, 1960 evolution d7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Hmm, one storm last year did this, where the 7 h and 5 h jumped from just south of us to quickly form a powerful low ENE, was it NYE?, timing issues abound, getting closer so it's just a matter of time before reality hits, good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Don't worry....the Doc will come in and nail everyone just enough to perpetuate this neverending madness. The search of the Holy Grail of Weenies '78. Were is Ray Davies when ya need em..LOLA. Or- were we just not here a week and a half ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What a difference 6 hours can make. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 LOl, always lift the wifes side first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 1/13 bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The GFS and Euro (although have some differences at H5), do show the elongating of the ULL. The Euro actually digs the vortmax a little further south, but then starts to "curl" or tuck the vortmax closer to the coast. This causes cyclogenesis closer to the coast. The GFS eventually develops a low, but it's pretty far OTS. The inv trough develops in response the the developing ULL near NYC. 00z Euro 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 1/13 bomb. No kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 freaking out going on in DT chat room as primary is going to Pitt. Looks like a great solution over our way though no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 freaking out going on in DT chat room as primary is going to Pitt. Looks like a great solution over our way though no? DT has a chat room? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 DT has a chat room? Well, it's more of a chta romo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 freaking out going on in DT chat room as primary is going to Pitt. Looks like a great solution over our way though no? Great setup for us, but don't do it to yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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