moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like the southern system is going to cause problems at 60z on the NAM. I think........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 00z UKMET model looks good, but not as good as yesterday's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like the southern system is going to cause problems at 60z on the NAM. I think........... Well its getting out of the way at 75, Its just starting to snow over SE MA, NH and SW ME at 15z friday, I think if this were to develop slower the lead piece out of the southern stream would be less of a factor........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 nam gives c/e ma/ri some nice light snows on fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like NAM has light snow 1-3 or maybe 4 for all of SNE Thursday nite/Friday Edit. Phil beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like NAM has light snow 1-3 or maybe 4 for all of SNE Thursday nite/Friday Edit. Phil beat me to it I'm hoping to watch the football tournament while it's snowing outside on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NAM is developing a new low at 84 hours. Has already dropped 2-4 over eastern areas but afterwards looks pregnant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The NAM is just want John wanted for the New Year, a banded shredded stinker. The second low is developing at 78/84 but it's pretty far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NAM is developing a new low at 84 hours. Has already dropped 2-4 over eastern areas but afterwards looks pregnant. Me likey the look of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The NAM is just want John wanted for the New Year, a banded shredded stinker. The second low is developing at 78/84 but it's pretty far offshore. It's about 20 miles ene of HSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Me likey the look of the NAM. Looks to me like the second low begins to form offshore the carolinas around 72/78 out under the impulse at 500 before it moves almost due north and gradually takes over. Again good to look at, but we need to see definitive moves towards a bomb soon. Right now we have one low rocketing out, probably a second one spinning up under some additional interference but that can hopefully be captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The NAM is just want John wanted for the New Year, a banded shredded stinker. The second low is developing at 78/84 but it's pretty far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's about 20 miles ene of HSE. And there's another that forms WELL SE of Cape Cod at the same time that originates out under yet another s/w impulse moving off the Carolinas around 60-72 hours. I suspect this is why the models are so "confused"....three cooks in the kitchen as usual the last two to three years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The NAM would be a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Me likey the look of the NAM. Yeah, the NAM basically does away with the first low, but gets exciting at 84 hrs. I wish I knew what the heck it was going to do just after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NAM is developing a new low at 84 hours. Has already dropped 2-4 over eastern areas but afterwards looks pregnant. The Nam looks great with that forming 992 getting ready to get captured as 5 H rotates down, infact 12 hours earlier last night it looked the same but nobody liked it. Ray had goggles on me, Jerry said nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Phasing issues continue to interfere with the modeled solutions. Right now it is best to sit back and watch. Latest trends could be showing a more amplified southern stream disturbance which leads this storm to come closer to the coastline. However it is best to watch this until 12z runs on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And there's another that forms WELL SE of Cape Cod at the same time that originates out under yet another s/w impulse moving off the Carolinas around 60-72 hours. I suspect this is why the models are so "confused"....three cooks in the kitchen as usual the last two to three years. Excellent analysis as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The Nam looks great with that forming 992 getting ready to get captured as 5 H rotates down, infact 12 hours earlier last night it looked the same but nobody liked it. Ray had goggles on me, Jerry said nah. I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And there's another that forms WELL SE of Cape Cod at the same time that originates out under yet another s/w impulse moving off the Carolinas around 60-72 hours. I suspect this is why the models are so "confused"....three cooks in the kitchen as usual the last two to three years. The storm would occur after the run with the low off east of HSE likely moving due north. You got a 510 dm closed low moving southeast at 84 hours with a very strong vort max extending through the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 There's clearly three systems, the first major one rockets NE, an intermediate forms out under another impulse which is clearly modeled on the NAM at all levels moving WAY out to sea, and then likely the trailing system which is evident at all levels by 78. The first one takes a lot of the moisture, the second takes what's left and the third is left to develop whatever it can in place which will take some time. This is as modeled today, all I'm saying is it's very easy to see why we will CONTINUE to have model volatility until we get to about 48 hours pre-game..tonight or early am Wednesday. I can also see how some models are keeping this from being a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The NAM would be a monster. I agree OSU, it looks like it would explode and it appears it has the SPV or H5 low further southwest than most models. Time will tell, oh I can't wait for the 12z runs on Thursday. Could models trend towards an actual southern/northern stream phasing storm as the SPV comes rolling into the phase just a tad later exploding the storm as it moves northward, so it doesn't need to track further west, but still dumps a ton of snow on everyone from NYC to ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's the ETA, cut the qpf by a third. But by golly ya gotta love that L location 986 at ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 There's clearly three systems, the first major one rockets NE, an intermediate forms out under another impulse which is clearly modeled on the NAM at all levels moving WAY out to sea, and then likely the trailing system which is evident at all levels by 78. The first one takes a lot of the moisture, the second takes what's left and the third is left to develop whatever it can in place which will take some time. This is as modeled today, all I'm saying is it's very easy to see why we will CONTINUE to have model volatility until we get to about 48 hours pre-game..tonight or early am Wednesday. I can also see how some models are keeping this from being a big deal. More like a monster deal messenger. If that southern stream system is slower than modeled than this would just be a monster. Can you imagine such a storm occurring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Excellent analysis as usual. Holy schists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I did. I did too Ginxy....COT FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Holy schists That H5 would be pulling everything back in to the coast, yes? Now we just need to make sure there is something nice to pull back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Everyone did except............Who doesn't like an 84 hr nam................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Loop the 5 h , if that ain't textbook I will retire from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 More like a monster deal messenger. If that southern stream system is slower than modeled than this would just be a monster. Can you imagine such a storm occurring? Holy schists This is similar to the GFS of 0z but different in a few key ways: 1. It gets the first system further out of the way 2. It's slower/deeper with the PV, so everything begins to develop 6-12 hours earlier which IMO would take the GFS solution and shift it west by 40-80 miles. Same end result with a low stuck just happening earlier and further SW. OSU I think that 2nd system is probably going to be an aberration. Sure we'll see some deep moisture move out with it, but the NAM is confused I think in trying to develop a reflection all the way down to the surface there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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