CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I had said i thought we'd have clarity by last night at the latest. of course you were right. lets hope it starts to shift in a better direction once the shortwaves are onshore It may be that this is the solution..who knows. Usually with these setups, one little displacement of a PV or even a vortmax, and the downstream repercussions are huge. That's why I thought it may be a while, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah...not bad. Some snow for all. The most reliable indicator gives us regionwide snow..pretty much all you need to know..is that it will snow this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 How can we get that lead S/W to get picked up by a 747 and dropped off near Portugal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The most reliable indicator gives us regionwide snow..pretty much all you need to know..is that it will snow this week which one is that this year? the consistency of the "RKM"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 OH MY GOD, the 18z NAM is stronger with the intermediate stream short wave passing through Britt Columbia, as well as slightly farther west with the western end of the SPV.... what the means i have no f clue but oh my god - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 How can we get that lead S/W to get picked up by a 747 and dropped off near Portugal? Because long before the S/W ever gets there the wind is alreadly blowing 1/5th the speed of sound, that's how Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i think i'm spent... I just looked at your avatar and went, 'wow, this clipper is over producing...' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The euro ensembles have a pretty good gradient pattern developing near hr 300. Heights pump up in the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 How can we get that lead S/W to get picked up by a 747 and dropped off near Portugal? If you're talking about the ND s/w at 12z Wednesday I'm not sure we want it faster. I think we want it to hang around long enough to keep the moisture close/wrapping back. It's slower this run, I'd like to see it slow down by an equal amount next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i think i'm spent... I just looked at your avatar and went, 'wow, this clipper is over producing...' haha SWFE with an Arctic high FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 18z NAM looks to deliver the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 18z NAM looks to deliver the goods. I'm very happy with it. ND s/w hangs around long enough so that it's further west. Instead of an organized low WAY out to sea note the 700mb RH...more of an east to west band of moisture that looks like it wants to run west right into SNE. Then when the main vortex comes down there's more moisture to act on. I don't think we want that system faster, we want it slower so that it gets caught up by the bigger dog. Instead of clearing out all the moisture we want it to be hanging around so that it either directly or indirectly is absorbed. I like this run a ton. (for a steady snow event)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I just saw the 15z ETA....that is pretty sweet and exactly how we want it to evolve...that would continue to go nuts after the last panel. 18z NAM is looking decent too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NAM does look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NAM looking good through 78.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The wheels on the 18z NAM bus go round and round, round and round. The wheels on the 18z NAM bus go round and round all through the SNE town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NAM at 72 hmmmmm... got rid of that mess out in front as a crude observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The wheels on the 18z NAM bus go round and round, round and round. The wheels on the 18z NAM bus go round and round all through the SNE town. classic on so many levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I just sat in the car outside my dads dermatologist appointment in brookline reading every page of this thread. Pure hilarity. Very clear when looking at the big picture that everything is still on the table for this system. So many intricate details with many players/sw's makes this situation extremely sensitive. We still arnt far from a mod-mjr system. We shall see. My chips are on a warning run of the mill storm. Moderate snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I have a feeling we'll wish there was another couple panels on the NAM when it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 One really important difference in the NAM is it now has the elongated ULL just like the GFS. We're going to need the timing to change/hang more moisture around for this to be anything but what's it modeled as now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The wheels on the 18z NAM bus go round and round, round and round. The wheels on the 18z NAM bus go round and round all through the SNE town. Yeah--congrats Nassau/Fairfield counties on this run through 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm very happy with it. ND s/w hangs around long enough so that it's further west. Instead of an organized low WAY out to sea note the 700mb RH...more of an east to west band of moisture that looks like it wants to run west right into SNE. Then when the main vortex comes down there's more moisture to act on. I don't think we want that system faster, we want it slower so that it gets caught up by the bigger dog. Instead of clearing out all the moisture we want it to be hanging around so that it either directly or indirectly is absorbed. I like this run a ton. (for a steady snow event)... thanks for the analysis as usual really learn a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah--congrats Nassau/Fairfield counties on this run through 78. You're off the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I have a feeling we'll wish there was another couple panels on the NAM when it ends. Let's draw them ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Heck yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I just sat in the car outside my dads dermatologist appointment in brookline reading every page of this thread. Pure hilarity. Very clear when looking at the big picture that everything is still on the table for this system. So many intricate details with many players/sw's makes this situation extremely sensitive. We still arnt far from a mod-mjr system. We shall see. My chips are on a warning run of the mill storm. Moderate snowfalls. If it's the Beacon St office he's my family derm too. ....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 You're off the bus. Yeah, but I can see it in the distance. Maybe they'll send me the "short bus" instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah--congrats Nassau/Fairfield counties on this run through 78. this is much much better for all of us. the euro was awful for WNE. hopefully the NAM catches lightning in a bottle here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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