CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Would slowing down the phasing of the ULL and allowing for the lead vort to get out of the away potentially allow for more amplification? At hr 66, you can see the lead vort moving through NC and SC. This kicks out, and induces cyclogenesis about 300 miles east of HSE. At the same time, the Lake Superior s/w comes diving se and tries to save the day. Unfortunately, everything is a little too far east. If that lead s/w can slow down and perhaps the Lake Superior vort speeds up, then we have a storm. It may be one of those things where we have to tweak a little here and a little there. As it is right now, the lead s/w is pretty far apart from the Lake Superior s/w, so I think it would take a joint effort in both slowing or displacing the lead s/w, or speeding up the Lake Superior s/w. In your theory, I think it would be hard for the lead s/w to scoot out in time to allow for more amplification, but it might work if it were possible. Note that I'm not talking about the lead s/w at hr 48 that forms the weak low moving ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This run of the Euro is basically Count Rugen from the "Princess Bride": english accent - "I've been in the pain industry ...well, really most of life. Through trial and error, I've perfect it - more on an artform, really. I've just sucked 1 year of your life away. This for prosterity so, be honest, how do you feel?" [whinney] "Insteresting" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Thanks, sound like a 2-4ish deal. I hope that is the bottom of the barrel and it goes up. Yeah, This def could get better, Tick it back west, Actually Downeast ME sees 1.00" qpf........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Am I correct that not all inverted trough setups are norlun's? Maybe it's just semantics, but I am seeing norlun being tossed around, even by mets, but I have this feeling that what some of the models have been depicting are not really norlun's. Was it Jan '06 or something that coastal Maine got buried by a true norlun? I don't think it looked anything like this though. Sorry for the OT post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Am I correct that not all inverted trough setups are norlun's? Maybe it's just semantics, but I am seeing norlun being tossed around, even by mets, but I have this feeling that what some of the models have been depicting are not really norlun's. Was it Jan '06 or something that coastal Maine got buried by a true norlun? I don't think it looked anything like this though. Sorry for the OT post The euro is not a NORLUN, more like an inv trough. GFS is more like a NORLUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ray wants to know how the Ukie looks?????????? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html AWT.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 1-3 for GC up through sw NH. 2-4 for REV-ORH-just east of CON. 2-4/3-5 for BOS through PVD. 6"+ GHG-UUU and points se. I would gladly take 6"+, however I still think this has much better potential then most people think. With phasing timing issues our main problem, models seem too fast with the southern stream to begin with and too slow when it comes to the northern stream S/Ws. NAM should be interesting when it comes to the Thursday 00z runs. NAM has probably the best H5 setup possible, while the rest of the guidance looks bleak. Right now my best guess is to hedge towards the NAM given its track record for the past few storms, however giving it the edge of caution as well given we are more than 48 hours out from getting snows. With the NAM showing a favorable H5 setup, I am only to believe that the models are in their normal funks right now between Day 3-6. Phasing issues should be resolved with another 36 hours of model runs before getting confident on a go or no go. I am not saying this as someone hoping for snow, but as someone who is looking at the model behaviors from past storms and who is looking at the H5 setup. PNA ridging is not over amplified, but it is not squished either, so a track of the H5 low from 39n:75w to 40n:70w seems most appropiate separating the most northern solutions and the most southern solutions. The EURO/GFS combo really show a strung out mess of H5 vorticity maxes running through the overall H5 flow. The NAM shows a stronger lead shortwave and a stronger main impulse or SPV moving through the OH Valley. GFS/EURO are more progressive then the NAM was and therefore the NAM shows a favorable setup with both systems. What I am trying to say is that the NAM is slower and digs the SPV more than any other model right now, even though it might have a stronger lead southern stream impulse it becomes favorable with the SPV because it is much slower than the EURO/GFS combo. EURO almost wants to phase the southern stream with the northern stream and the SPV all at once, but then dampens the SPV as it moves through the NE US. Right now it is best to take the cautionary route and think that a major storm is possible, but moderate snows are most likely at this time. I would hedge more towards the full blown SPV moving south of Long Island then the jumbled mess the GFS/EURO/CMC all portray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I don't believe there is any phasing in this run... This is excruciating to look at really... probably the worst run to date for this system seeing that southern stream whip out like that completely oblivious to the subsume attempt by the SPV. SPV arrives and there is no one left at the party, so it just rots. So look what happens... we get whiffed by the southern stream, which looks too hyper-developed btw, then the SPV just tries to damp and fill in at 120 hours. If there were a better example of the anit-snow-for-you physics running in the model it would be a shock. lol And, the AWESOME part is that the system later on doesn't have a prayer in this run. nice I think you answered my question. If we can get this southern energy to get out of the way fast enough, maybe it would allow for the SPV to just do it's dirty work and dig S and amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I would venture to guess that the 12z NAM is the only model of the cycle to show the actual SPV move and dig more than any other model in this suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 AWT.. What did we think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think you answered my question. If we can get this southern energy to get out of the way fast enough, maybe it would allow for the SPV to just do it's dirty work and dig S and amplify. I think it could, I just don't know how realistic it is. Of course, we've seen strange things lately so who knows. 00z could have another different depiction...and probably will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 wouldn't it be something if we had 10 mega bombs this year, but none of them were solidly handled leaving nothing but consternation leading up to everyone? deliciously cruel.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 So much uncertainty. Ugly trend on the last GFS runs for KCON 18z = 2.0" 0z = 1.6" 6z = .3" 12z = .1" With similar reductions for BOS. Seems for the most part people here are in wait and see mode still too.. All I can really take away is that the pattern is potentially explosive (I saw someone use the term "Nuclear") but very difficult to get the timing right at medium range and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Really wide spread on 12Z - kinda par for the course for this lead time lately it seems. Now we just need an epic 18Z run on GFS complete with initialization errors to start the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Actually the 12z GFS is closer to the NAM, while the rest of the foreign models want to actually phase the southern stream shortwave with the actual SPV. HMM. I wonder who is going to win this battle. It would seem plausible for both solutions to work given that the models seem to underestimate the speed of the northern stream and the amplification of the southern stream is mostly modeled too progressive. The NAM/GFS combo show both streams separate in their 12z runs, with the NAM slower and the GFS more progressive and therefore the GFS does not dig the main SPV but instead is more in towards its bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 wouldn't it be something if we had 10 mega bombs this year, but none of them were solidly handled leaving nothing but consternation leading up to everyone? deliciously cruel.... I can assure you that many of us (I for one) will enthusiastically take absolute, complete model failure and busts on any forecasts (people whose livelihood are tied to it notwithstanding) and have a surprise storm. Give us 10 of them and we'd be in winter heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What did we think? Going to go out a limb and say that the crazy uncle may not be feeling well......... That we heard nothing about the crazy uncle and it was shaking hands with the the folks in england....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 So much uncertainty. Ugly trend on the last GFS runs for KCON 18z = 2.0" 0z = 1.6" 6z = .3" 12z = .1" With similar reductions for BOS. Seems for the most part people here are in wait and see mode still too.. All I can really take away is that the pattern is potentially explosive (I saw someone use the term "Nuclear") but very difficult to get the timing right at medium range and beyond. You better stock up on water. With that trend, you'll be giving some back. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 terror cold invades canada on this run after the next 7-10 days of teases and misses with no snow ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 terror cold invades canada on this run after the next 7-10 days of teases and misses with no snow ... That has been so consistent, wow. Say goodbye to a mild winter at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 terror cold invades canada on this run after the next 7-10 days of teases and misses with no snow ... We'll have our chances..lol. No need to go rafters yet. It's 84+ hours out, so I think there is room for improvement. Could it be a 1-3" fluff job?? Sure, but given how every model has changed its tune on virtually every run, I'm not sure we can just assume we only need the broom for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 We'll have our chances..lol. No need to go rafters yet. It's 84+ hours out, so I think there is room for improvement. Could it be a 1-3" fluff job?? Sure, but given how every model has changed its tune on virtually every run, I'm not sure we can just assume we only need the broom for this one. E NE and SE MA could still do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I agree Scott, this one is far from being over for SNE. I don't think it will be an inverted trough models trend towards, more like a monster storm IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 We'll have our chances..lol. No need to go rafters yet. It's 84+ hours out, so I think there is room for improvement. Could it be a 1-3" fluff job?? Sure, but given how every model has changed its tune on virtually every run, I'm not sure we can just assume we only need the broom for this one. I think Tip thought we were getting a huge bomb when that was very unlikely. He is alot like Ray in the fact that if it's only 3-6 inches he considers that no snow..even though every 12z model run today showed that for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 1-3 for GC up through sw NH. 2-4 for REV-ORH-just east of CON. 2-4/3-5 for BOS through PVD. 6"+ GHG-UUU and points se. Very similar to 1978. We need the 84 hr sys to slow way down. Otherwise snow bands ftw all talk Of a biggie ftl IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Very similar to 1978. We need the 84 hr sys to slow way down. Otherwise snow bands ftw all talk Of a biggie ftl IMO The rich get richer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Who cares if this storm brings advisory amounts. Take it and run. We'll have more chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Who cares if this storm brings advisory amounts. Take it and run. We'll have more chances. I hope it does, Thats all we need up here to get back out on the trails......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Who cares if this storm brings advisory amounts. Take it and run. We'll have more chances. Tippy got too emotionally attached I'm afraid. Locking self in his folks basement and blasting Highway to Hell won't help either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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