Remnants of Hurricane Isaias

[Weather Will]

WB 21Z NBM storm totals.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO AI and EURO

[Jebman]

Surprise surprise. Isaiah remnants will dump close to two feet of fresh rain on Florida Alabama and Georgia.

That region folks, is SMACK DAB in the midst of the Infamous Super Nino Plume.

This, is only The Beginning for the Southeast, right thru June 2027.

If you live in a low lying community, write it off right now. Those places won't dry off until late next summer.

[Interstate]

I wouldn't even call it the remnants... it is a low pressure pulling up gulf moisture.

[Jebman]

This is going to be a highly satisfying storm.

It is still intensifying and might touch Cat 3.

ANTECEDENT FRESHWATER: Soils are hypersaturated. They might get to see 15 additional inches of rain

Winds felling trees: Ground is saturated. It won't take much wind to topple every last tree in that saturated soil. Look out houses, buildings, cars and people trying to jebwalk in this thing.

Gulf of Mexico Bathymetry: Shape of the bottom will enable the storm to push a lot of ocean up onto the low lying coast resulting in incredible storm surge! People will get to watch that water go up, even gushing UP through drains!

There is a possibility of more rain than expected with this. The moisture will have nowhere to go thanks to a blocking high over the Mid Atlantic. South Georgia, West Florida SE Alabama are all under the gun with this system!

APPLICATION: Very exciting storm, satisfying rain amounts, strong winds and lots of falling trees along with storm surge flooding and freshwater flooding exacerbated, thanks to saturated grounds because of antecedent heavy rains before this storm. I fervently wish I was down there in the worst hit regions, I'd be blasting Daddy Yankee tracks and dancing like Smeagle in Lord of the Rings!

 

[Ji]

https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/08/weather/hurricane-isaias-ai-models-google

[WxUSAF]

110mph Cat 2 as of 5am. Close to a major 

[mappy]

Oh, awesome more weekend rain

[Eskimo Joe]

10 minutes ago, mappy said:

Oh, awesome more weekend rain

We need it. Our reservoirs are dry. 

[Interstate]

35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We need it. Our reservoirs are dry. 

Good thing I have well water... can we get rain on any other day than Sunday though?

[WxWatcher007]

Marginal D3 SPC outlook right now but with a 5% tor risk. Good chance there's an upgrade as we get closer if the track holds. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO and AI

[Ji]

WB 6Z EURO and AI

Now show the nam3k lol

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Now show the nam3k lol

True, but WB 3K NAM is slower than EURO...more to come at hr 60.

[GramaxRefugee]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We need it. Our reservoirs are dry. 

Bad attitude. Reservoirs fill just as well on Tuesday/Wednesday rain as they do on Saturday/Sunday rain.

eta: Reservoirs fill best on HECS/MECS snow melt. They just do.

[WxWatcher007]

Sorry, here was the D3 text and categorical risk. Doesn't say tor risk but I think we know...

...Delmarva into the Carolinas...

   Considerable strengthening of the deep-layer wind field is forecast
   on Sunday in advance of the midlevel trough. However, considerable
   cloud cover and areas of precipitation appear likely to limit air
   mass destabilization within the poleward-expanding warm sector.
   Nonetheless, boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s
   will support pockets of modest instability, especially in areas
   where cloud breaks may occur. And given the presence of relatively
   strong low-level and deep-layer shear, a conditional risk for severe
   storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes will
   exist Sunday into Sunday evening. Higher severe weather
   probabilities may be required in later forecasts if subsequent model
   data indicate greater instability than that currently depicted.

[SnowenOutThere]

Managed to get my (now major) hurricane sunrise this morning! Some low clouds blocked it a bit, but still well worth the early morning. 

[soadforecasterx]

Red sky in the morning, sailors warning. 

[WxUSAF]

Got a nice 22 degree halo right now 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Got a nice 22 degree halo right now 

 

Cloud deck reminds me of how it looks before a big winter's storm. Last year before our sleetfest we had a brilliant sunrise in the morning. Crazy what some high clouds can do

[AnEndlessMaze]

This name should’ve been retired in 2020 after what it did to SOMD.

[JB Fins]

10 minutes ago, AnEndlessMaze said:

This name should’ve been retired in 2020 after what it did to SOMD.

That, and the fact I can only pronounce it correctly 1 out of every 10 tries.

[WxWatcher007]

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS

[LeesburgWx]

Clouds now moving in

[Paleocene]

You know you have reached weather nerd status when you notice high clouds rolling in and say to yourself, those must be from the hurricane, then look at a satellite pic to confirm. Hope we get some juice from this thing

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, AnEndlessMaze said:

This name should’ve been retired in 2020 after what it did to SOMD.

I think it stuck because it transitioned into a nor’easter while it was over us.

[yoda]

Wind gust forecast starting to rise across the region for Sunday... now 30 to 35 mph.  

[stormy]

My 5 model blend for Augusta County has increased from 1.56" to 1.76".  At the same time the NBM decreased from 1.02" to .82"!

That NBM is a real party pooper considering how badly we need rain!!  

[high risk]

My initial reaction was that tornado potential would be confined to southeast VA and the Eastern Shore, because widespread rain over the DC metro area would limit instability.   Looking at CAMs, however, suggests that rain will likely end by early or mid afternoon for areas south and southeast of the warm front, and some decently high theta-e air will be available.    With the intense shear forecasted, it won't take much instability to make things very interesting.   The question, though, the track of the surface low.  My money is still on a track that keeps the warm sector south and east of DC, but there are solutions that track the low further to the northwest which would put our area into the game later Sunday.