October 2026 general discussion

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I meant lantern flies 

Ive seen one in leominster at walmart.. nothing here though.. i think its mainly southern MA south.. the one I saw probably hitched a ride

[The 4 Seasons]

14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ive seen one in leominster at walmart.. nothing here though.. i think its mainly southern MA south.. the one I saw probably hitched a ride

They are loaded in CT. Everywhere i go i see them it's pretty wild. 

[powderfreak]

We snow, legit flakes as this squall moved through at 3,600ft.

Temp 35F.

[Great Snow 1717]

Consistently more windy today than during last weekend's Storm of the Century...

[Ginx snewx]

On 10/3/2026 at 5:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like Hi res keeps all the rain south tomorrow night . Stein settling in for the region rest of month 

Oops

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Consistently more windy today than during last weekend's Storm of the Century...

Said the same this morning huge gust out of nowhere 

[Brian5671]

40 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

They are loaded in CT. Everywhere i go i see them it's pretty wild. 

Yeah infested here now for a couple of years but turns out they are not as damaging as once feared...

[mreaves]

On 10/4/2026 at 12:15 PM, mreaves said:

Looks like MPV got down to 32°. Unfortunately my PWS is down so I don’t know what I got down to here. As for foliage, I think this weekend was probably peak. 

Finally got my PWS back up.  Had to reset the wifi connection and the console itself.  It's 51.2°.  Unfortunately it lost the rain stats.

[The 4 Seasons]

really? i only noticed them this year, i thought it was a recent thing. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

really? i only noticed them this year, i thought it was a recent thing. 

First ones popped up in southern CT in the late summer of 2024.  Last year wasn't nearly as bad as this year, this year they are as common as flys. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oops

Nothing in sight 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

They are loaded in CT. Everywhere i go i see them it's pretty wild. 

Yes its been ridiculous this year. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

They are loaded in CT. Everywhere i go i see them it's pretty wild. 

Love it. They make me happy 

[The 4 Seasons]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Love it. They make me happy 

They are pretty adorable little things. I was just at the supermarket one landed on my neck, they were all over the ground and the bushes.

[Snowedin]

9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Must've beeen distracted ... because the speed in which I've just realized we're moving through the solar transition season is something else.  It just occurred to me we are closer to the solar minimum now, than the max, along that timeline journey.  

It seems to happen faster every year. Hopefully the upcoming El Niño will offset some of the gloominess until the pendulum swings the other way by providing us with multiple day rain events and subsequent periods of frozen mud shortly thereafter. 

[VivaManchVegas]

8 hours ago, CCHurricane said:

The Notch did not disappoint yesterday.

No issues on Kinsman Ridge Trail, very little traffic on trail. Not crowded at all and plenty of parking. 

Can’t speak to the chaos over at Artist Bluff…

Yes.  Hiking and skiing on weekends are for the birds.  I plan on doing neither for the balance of what ever time I have left on this planet. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 minutes ago, VivaManchVegas said:

Yes.  Hiking and skiing on weekends are for the birds.  I plan on doing neither for the balance of what ever time I have left on this planet. 

I did Bear Mt. in CT on Sunday.  Trail wasn't bad, but three busloads of kids from The Gunnery at the summit!

[VivaManchVegas]

9 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I did Bear Mt. in CT on Sunday.  Trail wasn't bad, but three busloads of kids from The Gunnery at the summit!

That must have been a great prize for the summiting.  

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Love it. They make me happy 

send some up my way 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Any hikers or mountain enthusiasts in here willing to chime in on the accuracy of Mountain-Forecast.com for summit conditions or other resources.  Some of my nephews are looking into hiking Mt Lafayette in the Whites very early on Saturday morning. They're even talking about trying to summit for sunrise.  They're young, healthy, solid hikers but they haven't done winter hikes and I'm  making sure they are informed and prepared and honestly trying to talk them out of it. I even texted their mother and told her it's not advisable.    

[powderfreak]

The NW wind is crazy this evening.  House shaking gusts at times.

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

You are correct regarding snow measurements. Back in the day the measurements were often taken after a storm had ended. I'll go to my grave stating the snowfall totals for the Merrimack Valley area for the Blizzard of 78 were on the low side..

40"+ was common N&W of BOS for 78.

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is true, but you are proving my point that the same issue concerning measuring inconsistencies plagued Miller B events, as well.

One could say that Miller A having higher LEQ and lower snow ratios due to their warmer nature, they likely have more underestimation due to compaction.

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

CAR 2.5" Sep 29-30, 1991 for its first measurable snow on record in Sep.  2" at Glen NH Sep 16, 1986 as a spinner occurred at the same time in Scituate MA.  @CoastalWx be like, "how can that be!?" 

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

FWIW absolutely nothing I’m sure but WCVB mentioned that disturbed area in the Gulf might factor into our forecast when/if it emerges off of Florida next week 

Posted this on the Tropical Forum, but will do so here b/c this could some "fun ' games" as to what is what when it comes to a TC or not!

-----

Something doesn't seem right.  I was surprised the 18z ECWMF suddenly went the GFS route.

The 700-300 mb RH fields and PWAT anoms tell the story. I attached 18z ECMWF 72, 105, and 114 hr 700-300 RH.

Even when it is still the Bay of Campeche, it is "halved" from a strong moisture gradient, and it just gets stronger w/ time. looking like a typical ET low development.  And look at the 114 hr fcst PWAT anomaly.  That clearly shows a frontal structure, and compare the PWAT anomalies to Simon in the EPAC.  That's not nearly the anomaly you'd see in a typical TC.

I can see NHC "playing games" here.  Calling it something that it is not b/c of non-meteorological factors (social media nonsense, its sensible wx impact, etc).  But ET low can and do form in the Gulf in Oct (see the 1992 case I posted about earlier) and given the strength of El Nino, it makes ET lows this early even more likely.  In fact, by 36 hr, the 250 mb STJ become quite apparent near the Gulf Coast, and in 5 days close to landfall, a strong 250 s/w is present in the region, obviously aiding in the system's development.

Some might go, "but the simulated IR from the GFS shows an eye!"  Well, it is the GFS, and yes, initially it could be a TS/STS but here lies another issue, transition to a PT/ET low when it is approaching a landfall.  Sandy anyone?  You see the problem here.  But I say, in the end, it is what it is, and call it as such.  Don't let external pressures and nonsense contaminate the met science!
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

One could say that Miller A having higher LEQ and lower snow ratios due to their warmer nature, they likely have more underestimation due to compaction.

I think you're splitting hairs and reaching.................first of all, I don't think that any degree of difference with respect to LE and measuring technique would negate the evolutionary advantages that Miller B type cyclogenesis has. Secondly, couple said evolutionary differences with that that Miller B also tend to be less progressive, and that negates any LEQ advantage and increased proclivity for compression that Miller A had. 

Would like to go through the list of Miller B captures and Miller A captures (good luck)?

So, we are talking about less progressive systems on average, which protracts precp and augments measuring inconsistencies due to companion,  that also tend to have the timing of approach more closely align with max rate of depending of mid level centers.

Mic drop-

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

send some up my way 

Invasive and damaging. no want.