September 2026

[bkviking]

Cranky on X sniffing out more storminess Sat-Tues. Anyone seeing that? He sniffed out this storm weeks ago. 

[MarcmmKU]

9 hours ago, TriPol said:

I keep seeing people talk about the 2015 - 2016 record El Nino and how the winter of 2015 - 2016 was so horrible.

I sure as heck don't remember anyone complaining about the 27.5 inches of snow Central Park got in one storm.

It was bad for ski country. Terrible actually.

[MarcmmKU]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The warm start to October continues to follow the theme of warmest anomalies to start each month since the summer. 

It does look more muted now than I initially thought. More like a couple days in the mid to upper 70s. For reference central park's mean absolute maximum for October is around 79. So unseasonably warm but it happens every year. There could be a return to heat mid month however.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes the night they dropped to 39 was on my birthday =/ I'm still upset with that although it did warm up into the 70s here that day with clear blue skies and I saw two bald eagles that day. My low was 39.6.

Some interesting years in that list. Both 1933 and 2002 are on the highest minimums list but both had historic winters. Meanwhile our TV mets keep insisting that the only months above normal this year were March and April.

March through September has been a pretty warm stretch for your area also. Only May was slightly cooler in your area. It was the 5th warmest March 1st through September 26th there since the new airport site opened in late 1999. So it makes it harder to compare to the older days before 2000 with so many data gaps. 
 

Station Thread for Mount Pocono Area,

PANamePeriod in Thread1Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport10/01/1999 to 12/31/20252Tonyhanna Pocono Mountain Airport12/01/1961 to 09/30/19993Mt. Pocono09/12/1901 to 11/30/1961

Time Series Summary for POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, PA Warmest March 1st through September 26th since 2000
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010-09-26	59.4	0
2	2012-09-26	59.1	0
3	2011-09-26	57.8	0
4	2024-09-26	57.7	0
5	2026-09-26	57.5	0
6	2025-09-26	57.4	0
7	2016-09-26	57.2	0
8	2021-09-26	56.9	0
-	2002-09-26	56.9	0
10	2022-09-26	56.8	0
-	2015-09-26	56.8	0

 

Mar…+5.5

Apr….+3.8

May….-0.4

Jun….+1.5

Jul…..+0.9

Aug…+0.7

Sep…..+1.7

 

On September 29, 1999, a major weather observation shift occurred in the Pocono Mountains when the Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport (KMPO) in Mount Pocono officially began automated reporting. [1]

This marked the transition of the region's primary Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reporting site to a modern, standardized system. Prior to late 1999, data was predominantly recorded via manual, local cooperative observers or different measurement techniques, which occasionally led to minor visual bias reporting errors on scaling instruments. [1, 2]

 

Impact of the 1999 Shift

• Standardized Automation: The introduction of the KMPO automated station allowed the National Weather Service to stream consistent, real-time meteorological observations.

• Climate Baseline: This shift established the digital baseline used to create the region's ongoing historical record and formal climate summaries. [1, 2, 3]

[SACRUS]

LP Center moving into and through Belmar

[SACRUS]

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

LP Center moving into and through Belmar

Really unusual track for September. Most early season coastal storms or tropical systems track N to NE up or just off the coast. Can’t remember a September system coming in from the east into NJ before. Goes to show how strong the 500 mb ridging pattern has been associated with the record 600dm ridge a few weeks back and strong ridging since March.

[TriPol]

52 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Really unusual track for September. Most early season coastal storms or tropical systems track N to NE up or just off the coast. Can’t remember a September system coming in from the east into NJ before. Goes to show how strong the 500 mb ridging pattern has been associated with the record 600dm ridge a few weeks back and strong ridging since March.

I think this would be an unusual track for any time of the year! I can't recall a storm since Sandy that went retrograde.

[nycwinter]

this is going to be a wild winter in the northeaster during this el-nino..

[donsutherland1]

Through 7 pm, New York City has picked up a storm total 2.44" of rain. Periods of rain, some of which could still be heavy are likely tonight 

After some early showers, tomorrow will begin to dry out. The temperature will rise into the middle and upper 60s. Tuesday and Wednesday could see some sunshine along with warmer readings in the lower and middle 70s. 
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -14.44 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.051 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 87% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.6° (0.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[nycwinter]

i am looking forward to a milder drier week for a change..

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Beach annihilated in Wading River.

Nor Easters were/are always much worse than hurricanes in terms of beach erosion…and that played out over last few days 

It's long overstayed its welcome

14 hours ago, MANDA said:

Lots of discussion over the last few days about how this storm should be classified.  No shortage of opinions from several respected Mets.  

These two X posts make the most sense to me.  It was shallow warm core and it did separate from fronts for a short time.  No matter what it was not your typical cold season Nor-Easter and was not purely tropical. Hybrid or Sub-Tropical designation seems best way to go IMO.

Naming storms just isn't an objective scientific process. We blame the weather channel for their silly naming scheme but the NHC can be criticized too. Plenty of storms in years like 2005 and 2020 that would not have been named in the 50s and 60s and prior years. I'm sure 1933 would have had a lot more. It's a lot like snowfall measuring. Oh and there was an intentionally not named hurricane during the Perfect Storm October 1991 and that December 1994 storm should have been named too. That one was far stronger than this one. I think Chris posted a video with Dr. Joe Sobel in it?

 

17 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

would have turned to rain with the storm moving inland over NJ

It would have been all rain at the coast just like December 1992 was but much less impact than that historic storm.

17 hours ago, Northof78 said:

When the eye comes over you should get some pictures from inside the eyewall...clear with circular clouds surrounding and calm; please post em' if you can! 

Stadium effect?

16 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

skies are brightening in Seaside Heights NJ not far from the center

Seaside Heights Cam - North View

earthcam.com/usa/newjersey/seasideheights/?cam=seasideheights2 -south view

 

I wonder if it behaved like the eye of a hurricane?

15 hours ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Posted a clip on my Facebook page. Sunshine was visible.  Trees are down all over though from this mornings burst of wind. 

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1EMczqQcta/

Landfall location near Tom's River?

15 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes just because it didn't seem bad where you were doesn't make it any less noteworthy.  

A retro nor'easter in late September that caused widespread coastal flooding is significant. Gusts of 70+ were recorded. 3"+ amounts will fall. This is definitely a significant and pretty rare event. 

Well now it's just tedious and boring.

15 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes that too. Noreasters rarely last more than a day. 

This thing has long overstayed its welcome and become tedious and boring. I can't wait until humans control the weather and kick these things out.

15 hours ago, MANDA said:

Event total rainfall here so far .99".

Very windy overnight.  Estimating gusts to 40 mph.  Winds blew hard all night.  Lots of leaves, twigs and small branches down in the yard.  Numerous power outages in my immediate area.  JCPL reporting close to 46,000 customers out across their service areas in NJ.  

Southeast New England and coastal Jersey have received the heaviest total rainfall.

Forecasts for a high impact coastal storm worked out well.

Still got rain here, sometimes heavy.

15 hours ago, MANDA said:

Pretty cool radar evolution of this event from about 8pm last evening through current hour.  Not your classic Nor-Easter look.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-comp_radar-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

It's a hybrid.

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

Really unusual track for September. Most early season coastal storms or tropical systems track N to NE up or just off the coast. Can’t remember a September system coming in from the east into NJ before. Goes to show how strong the 500 mb ridging pattern has been associated with the record 600dm ridge a few weeks back and strong ridging since March.

These kinds of storms don't belong in September they should not happen before late October.

16 hours ago, SACRUS said:

LP Center moving into and through Belmar

Tony from that satellite image it looks like the center crossed farther south between Atlantic City and Tom's River.

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

March through September has been a pretty warm stretch for your area also. Only May was slightly cooler in your area. It was the 5th warmest March 1st through September 26th there since the new airport site opened in late 1999. So it makes it harder to compare to the older days before 2000 with so many data gaps. 
 

Station Thread for Mount Pocono Area,

PANamePeriod in Thread1Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport10/01/1999 to 12/31/20252Tonyhanna Pocono Mountain Airport12/01/1961 to 09/30/19993Mt. Pocono09/12/1901 to 11/30/1961

Time Series Summary for POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, PA Warmest March 1st through September 26th since 2000
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2010-09-26	59.4	0
2	2012-09-26	59.1	0
3	2011-09-26	57.8	0
4	2024-09-26	57.7	0
5	2026-09-26	57.5	0
6	2025-09-26	57.4	0
7	2016-09-26	57.2	0
8	2021-09-26	56.9	0
-	2002-09-26	56.9	0
10	2022-09-26	56.8	0
-	2015-09-26	56.8	0

 

Mar…+5.5

Apr….+3.8

May….-0.4

Jun….+1.5

Jul…..+0.9

Aug…+0.7

Sep…..+1.7

 

 

On September 29, 1999, a major weather observation shift occurred in the Pocono Mountains when the Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport (KMPO) in Mount Pocono officially began automated reporting. [1]

This marked the transition of the region's primary Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reporting site to a modern, standardized system. Prior to late 1999, data was predominantly recorded via manual, local cooperative observers or different measurement techniques, which occasionally led to minor visual bias reporting errors on scaling instruments. [1, 2]

 

Impact of the 1999 Shift

• Standardized Automation: The introduction of the KMPO automated station allowed the National Weather Service to stream consistent, real-time meteorological observations.

• Climate Baseline: This shift established the digital baseline used to create the region's ongoing historical record and formal climate summaries. [1, 2, 3]

So all snowfall, rainfall and temperature records from before 1999 are suspect? Well damn they were just saying how today's rainfall record is from Hurricane Gloria in 1985. 6 inches of rain in a storm that moved quickly and tracked further to the east than this one.  What about temperature records from very cold winters like 1993-94 and very hot summers like 1980, 1983  1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999? And those snowfall records from 1987  1988, 1993  1994 and 1996?

[SnoSki14]

9 hours ago, nycwinter said:

i am looking forward to a milder drier week for a change..

It's a lot more than milder. Mid to upper 80s late week

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, TriPol said:

I think this would be an unusual track for any time of the year! I can't recall a storm since Sandy that went retrograde.

Sandy was obviously the most extreme since it was such a strong system which occurred at the end of October in 2012. Henri was another much weaker system to come in from the east but was further north than this event. Henri lead to record flash flooding in August 2021. So these much stronger blocks to our north make these type of tracks possible. 
 

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/693bb9ddab5b4fb3a4aa5b79e5435b9f

 

 

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a lot more than milder. Mid to upper 80s late week

highs i am seeing for central park are upper 70's..

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a lot more than milder. Mid to upper 80s late week

What day is that? And can we quote you for credit when we get there?

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

So all snowfall, rainfall and temperature records from before 1999 are suspect? Well damn they were just saying how today's rainfall record is from Hurricane Gloria in 1985. 6 inches of rain in a storm that moved quickly and tracked further to the east than this one.  What about temperature records from very cold winters like 1993-94 and very hot summers like 1980, 1983  1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999? And those snowfall records from 1987  1988, 1993  1994 and 1996?

Plenty of missing data before 2000 at MPO including no observations at all from the record 93-94 winter in NEPA. The column on the right is total number of missing days for each year.

Notice how this recent period since 2000 is the most complete. But since there is no contract snowfall observer at MPO, we have to look to the surrounding areas volunteer snowfall observations.

The older observations prior to the airport being build in the early 1960s may have been at a different altitude than the airport due to where the coop observers in the area lived. So some of the warm records could have been from a lower altitude.
 

Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) Missing Days right column
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	46.4	0
2024	48.2	0
2023	48.3	0
2022	46.4	0
2021	47.5	0
2020	47.8	0
2019	46.2	0
2018	46.4	0
2017	46.8	0
2016	47.4	0
2015	47.2	0
2014	45.1	0
2013	46.6	0
2012	49.3	0
2011	48.3	0
2010	48.0	0
2009	46.3	0
2008	45.7	0
2007	46.5	0
2006	48.1	0
2005	46.5	0
2004	45.9	0
2003	44.8	0
2002	47.2	0
2001	46.2	0
2000	45.0	0
1999	46.9	9
1998	48.5	33
1997	45.0	22
1996	44.9	36
1995	52.1	232
1994	M	365
1993	46.9	128
1992	43.9	39
1991	46.5	46
1990	47.2	96
1989	42.9	67
1988	43.6	31
1987	44.2	27
1986	44.2	9
1985	32.3	242
1984	46.1	0
1983	46.6	1
1982	45.3	0
1981	45.4	0
1980	44.9	0
1979	45.8	0
1978	44.0	0
1977	45.4	1
1976	44.7	0
1975	46.4	0
1974	45.8	0
1973	47.4	0
1972	44.6	0
1971	45.4	0
1970	44.9	0
1969	44.9	0
1968	45.1	0
1967	44.6	0
1966	44.3	0
1965	44.5	0
1964	45.9	0
1963	44.4	0
1962	44.4	0
1961	27.5	331
1960	46.9	137
1959	37.3	216
1958	44.2	4
1957	46.9	7
1956	45.6	3
1955	47.1	7
1954	47.0	4
1953	48.2	20
1952	47.1	0
1951	46.6	0
1950	45.8	1
1949	53.4	182
1948	47.1	92
1947	44.8	0
1946	46.5	0
1945	45.2	0
1944	45.1	0
1943	44.3	0
1942	45.6	0
1941	44.4	0
1940	41.7	0
1939	44.5	0
1938	46.0	0
1937	44.8	0
1936	44.6	0
1935	43.9	0
1934	43.3	18
1933	46.6	78
1932	42.5	0
1931	46.8	0
1930	44.6	56
1929	45.5	0
1928	48.5	61
1927	48.8	84
1926	51.3	204
1925	60.1	243
1924	43.2	151
1923	49.8	212
1922	51.4	181
1921	46.4	122
1920	43.2	0
1919	45.7	0
1918	45.3	0
1917	42.2	0
1916	44.0	0
1915	50.8	90
1914	44.6	122
1913	38.5	143
1912	43.9	0
1911	46.3	5
1910	45.0	3
1909	45.4	9
1908	44.7	11
1907	41.9	5
1906	45.3	1
1905	44.7	0
1904	41.9	1
1903	44.0	12
1902	44.7	4

 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

highs i am seeing for central park are upper 70's..

Mid 80's is aggressive especially with wet ground, but I think some places will make a run at 80-Wed-Fri

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a lot more than milder. Mid to upper 80s late week

this euro sounding for friday in central nj isn't mixed out enough. these people never learn

[straphanger]

TWC is showing LGA at 84 on Friday.  Meanwhile, NWS and AW top out in the upper 70s for LGA on Friday.  Who's going to be right here?

[EastonSN+]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's long overstayed its welcome

Naming storms just isn't an objective scientific process. We blame the weather channel for their silly naming scheme but the NHC can be criticized too. Plenty of storms in years like 2005 and 2020 that would not have been named in the 50s and 60s and prior years. I'm sure 1933 would have had a lot more. It's a lot like snowfall measuring. Oh and there was an intentionally not named hurricane during the Perfect Storm October 1991 and that December 1994 storm should have been named too. That one was far stronger than this one. I think Chris posted a video with Dr. Joe Sobel in it?

 

It would have been all rain at the coast just like December 1992 was but much less impact than that historic storm.

Stadium effect?

I wonder if it behaved like the eye of a hurricane?

Landfall location near Tom's River?

Well now it's just tedious and boring.

This thing has long overstayed its welcome and become tedious and boring. I can't wait until humans control the weather and kick these things out.

Still got rain here, sometimes heavy.

It's a hybrid.

These kinds of storms don't belong in September they should not happen before late October.

Tony from that satellite image it looks like the center crossed farther south between Atlantic City and Tom's River.

So all snowfall, rainfall and temperature records from before 1999 are suspect? Well damn they were just saying how today's rainfall record is from Hurricane Gloria in 1985. 6 inches of rain in a storm that moved quickly and tracked further to the east than this one.  What about temperature records from very cold winters like 1993-94 and very hot summers like 1980, 1983  1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999? And those snowfall records from 1987  1988, 1993  1994 and 1996?

1992 went inland over the delmarva which is why the first part of the storm was rain. This one stayed east of us keeping the winds NE to NNE which would have likely been snow (barring a 1998 type el Nino warm environment). 

[Keith Central PA]

29 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this euro sounding for friday in central nj isn't mixed out enough. these people never learn

80's for one day in early October isn't earth shattering..overall a cool pattern starting next weekend.

[forkyfork]

43 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

80's for one day in early October isn't earth shattering..overall a cool pattern starting next weekend.

 

[NEG NAO]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a lot more than milder. Mid to upper 80s late week

As of now I agree some locations in the region will reach 85 or higher Friday afternoon - the 850 temps are several degrees above normal and in front of the cold front winds will be from the southwest - BUT if that cooler air speeds up and makes it here earlier in the day then expected temps won't max out so high - when you are 4 days away from an event always good to keep your options open - also how much cloud cover in advance of the front ?

[TriPol]

33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

As of now I agree some locations in the region will reach 85 or higher Friday afternoon - the 850 temps are several degrees above normal and in front of the cold front winds will be from the southwest - BUT if that cooler air speeds up and makes it here earlier in the day then expected temps won't max out so high - when you are 4 days away from an event always good to keep your options open - also how much cloud cover in advance of the front ?

Maybe if we get a good collision of cool air and warm air, we'll get some good thunderstorms.