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September 2026


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Periods of rain and drizzle are likely tomorrow and Tuesday. Highs tomorrow should be in the middle and upper 60s. Tuesday will be cooler with the temperature struggling to reach the lower 60s.

Wednesday could temporarily dry out. Additional rain and showers are possible Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool throughout the week with highs mainly in the lower 60s. 
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.9°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.65°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -35.18 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.619 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 69% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.3° (0.9° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Periods of rain and drizzle are likely tomorrow and Tuesday. Highs tomorrow should be in the middle and upper 60s. Tuesday will be cooler with the temperature struggling to reach the lower 60s.

Wednesday could temporarily dry out. Additional rain and showers are possible Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool throughout the week with highs mainly in the lower 60s. 
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.9°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.65°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -35.18 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.619 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 69% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.3° (0.9° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Don Vs. Upton - should be interesting - Upton has partly sunny low 70's on Monday

ZFP from KOKX

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It does appear that there is somewhat more dry air around than I had thought yesterday. So, today and even tomorrow could have some periods of sunshine with a diminished risk of showers. An offshore storm will need to be watched closely toward the end of the week.

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With the warmest part of the month behind us, all stations are above normal for September so far. NJ and Eastern PA have been the warm spots this month. We can see the artificial cooling at NYC due to the trees too close to the sensor.

September 1st-20th temperature departures

MPO…..+2.7°

PHL……+4.3°

SMQ…..+2.3°

NBW…..+3.5°

EWR…..+2.2°

NYC……+0.6°

LGA…….+1.6°

JFK…….+2.3°

HPN……+1.6°

BDR…..+0.5°

ISP…….+1.5°

 

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17 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

56 now; yesterday’s somewhat elevated humidity broke overnight.

All eyes on this weekend, with our annual fall/festival planned for Saturday. 

Im walking in the Tunnels2Towers event on Sunday. As much as I want this storm to hit , I hope its a dry day. 

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