September 2026

[WestBabylonWeather]

Overcast never came. Yet. Still nice and sunny. 

[mikeysed]

NWS UPTON, 5 to 7 inch possibility

IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers with heavy downpours and a few thunderstorms early Sunday morning into midday Sunday may lead to flooding. Average rainfall amounts are forecast to range from 1.5 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts of 5 to 7 inches possible. Peak hourly rates could reach 2 to 2.5 inches.

 

- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

 

 

[Stormlover74]

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Overcast never came. Yet. Still nice and sunny. 

Been overcast here in NJ for a bit now

[steve392]

Just now, FPizz said:

Been overcast here in NJ for a bit now

Was gunna say.  Been overcast since around 330pm.  Nice breeze too. 

[FPizz]

Just now, steve392 said:

Was gunna say.  Been overcast since around 330pm.  Nice breeze too. 

Yup.  Wife and I took the dogs for a walk like 40 minutes ago and we both were saying how nice it felt out. 

[donsutherland1]

Rain will arrive tonight. A general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts in excess of 3.00" appears likely.

Clouds will break tomorrow with the mercury rising into the upper 70s. However, the coolest air mass so far this season will then push into the region to begin the work week. Highs Monday through Wednesday will reach the lower and middle 70s. New York City will see lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As a result, Central Park will experience its first reading below 60° this season. the timing matches well with the last two El Niño events: 2015-2016: September 14 and 2023-2024: September 15.

Wednesday through Friday will see temperatures recover mainly to the upper 70s. However, additional cool air will likely arrive some time during the next weekend.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. 

The SOI was -29.77 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.761 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.2° (near normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[steve392]

How late in the day should do we see the rain clear out? 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, steve392 said:

How late in the day should do we see the rain clear out? 

Noon. Later east of the city

[SACRUS]

About 6 - 8 hours away

 

[mikeysed]

Any short range models showing anything interesting?

[SACRUS]

Highs:


PHL: 83
New Brnswck: 82
TEB: 81
TTN: 81
EWR: 80
ACY: 79
LGA: 79
BLM: 78
NYC: 78
JFK: *77 
ISP: 76

[winterwx21]

47 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Any short range models showing anything interesting?

0z HRRR has some spots getting 2 to 3 inches of rain while other spots get just a tenth to quarter inch. It looks like your typical summer downpours situation with some areas getting a lot of rain and other areas getting a little. Of course very difficult to predict which areas will get hard -- just have to watch radar. 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, mikeysed said:

Any short range models showing anything interesting?

Looks like a kind of split screw setup-the heavy rain area over Central PA maybe hits the I-84 area, then NYC/LI has to see what happens with the heavy rain area further south near DC. Between those areas probably ends up with little. 

[TriPol]

Is it worth talking about the thing that's all over social media? Six inches of rain around the 22nd from the remnants of a hurricane that only the GFS is showing.

[NEG NAO]

latest 03 HRRR  reduced precip amounts west of NYC from previous runs - parts of central and north NJ only get a couple tenths of an inch - probably will change in future runs

[Stormlover74]

Very heavy rain with thunder 

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

Mid 80's for mid September is not an endless summer.It's 10 degrees above normal. Happens every September. Now low to mid 90's is unusual

The definition we use for endless summer in the fall is highs of 80° or warmer. This year got off an early start for 80s back in March. So many locations across the region are in the top 5 for 80° days this year.

The number Sep to Nov 80° days have more than tripled at the usual warm spots like Newark over their period of record. So now we just take a higher 80°+ days for granted in the fall.

2009 was the last time we had under 10 days reaching 80° during the fall at the locally warmer spots like Newark.

 

[nycwinter]

no way am i seeing mid 80's for late next week for nyc this will bust .

[ForestHillWx]

Heavy rain now. Hopefully the seed I laid down yesterday doesn’t all wash out. 

Saw that a flash flood warning was posted for southeastern Morris County down near Long Hill Township/Chatham. 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

no way am i seeing mid 80's for late next week for nyc this will bust .

NYC isn’t considered one of the local warm spots these days due to the artificial cooling from the trees. So the mid 80s will likely be from around Philly to perhaps Newark. This record breaking 600 dm ridge really moderated the cool down which was expected to follow for late September.

 

New run

Old run

 

 

 

 

[liwxfan]

Kind of amazing how the precip is avoiding most of Long Island. 

[qg_omega]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC isn’t considered one of the local warm spots these days due to the artificial cooling from the trees. So the mid 80s will likely be from around Philly to perhaps Newark. This record breaking 600 dm ridge really moderated the cool down which was expected to follow for late September.

 

New run

Old run

 

 

 

 

Looks like 70s all week

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The definition we use for endless summer in the fall is highs of 80° or warmer. This year got off an early start for 80s back in March. So many locations across the region are in the top 5 for 80° days this year.

The number Sep to Nov 80° days have more than tripled at the usual warm spots like Newark over their period of record. So now we just take a higher 80°+ days for granted in the fall.

2009 was the last time we had under 10 days reaching 80° during the fall at the locally warmer spots like Newark.

 

When I was growing up in the 60s and 70s there were many September days in the 80s especially the first half of the month.Even some days in the 90s..Its still officially Summer.

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, MANDA said:

This ongoing and still strengthening El-Nino has allowed the 2026 tropical season (Pacific and Atlantic) to follow the Nino playbook to the letter and then some.  If the coming Fall and Winter follow the Nino playbook as well as the tropical season has it is going to be a rough season for many in this sub forum.  I'm taking an expect the worst and hope for the best approach.

I think above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures (DJF) are pretty much a lock.  We need to hope for a wet system to time itself with whatever cold air we can muster.  Maybe we get a "big one" that way?  Might be a big ask though.

Maybe a more Modoki El-Nino can better save the day but think that is also a big ask.

We'll see how we progress through Fall and go from there but keep expectations low.  I suspect most sensible winter weather lovers are bracing for the reality that this Winter might suck.

Looks like we’ll get an early sample of the super El Nino ridge north of the Great Lakes in late September. 
 

 

[Rmine1]

It appears that the western half of LI will end up on the lower end of predicted totals. The forks will be in the good stuff

[Brian5671]

Heavy rains here-flash flooding in progress

[mikeysed]

2.2 inches of rain last 90 minutes. Around 645am it was coming down about as hard as I've ever heard it. Northwest Essex County NJ

[LoboLeader1]

As of 9:00 AM, 2.0 inches of rain has fallen here thus far.

[SACRUS]

70 / 69 with 0.99 in the bucket so far.  Rain should let up by noon and perhaps some late clearing.Trouggh moving through ahead of ridge building in by later Tue - Friday.  Inland area mid / upper 80s Wed/Thu.  Overall near normal once to 9/18 and beyond there.  Need to watch some cutoff potential with the ridge buiding up above and/or some closeby tropics.