WestBabylonWeather Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Overcast never came. Yet. Still nice and sunny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago NWS UPTON, 5 to 7 inch possibility IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers with heavy downpours and a few thunderstorms early Sunday morning into midday Sunday may lead to flooding. Average rainfall amounts are forecast to range from 1.5 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts of 5 to 7 inches possible. Peak hourly rates could reach 2 to 2.5 inches. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 15 hours ago Author Share Posted 15 hours ago 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Overcast never came. Yet. Still nice and sunny. Been overcast here in NJ for a bit now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Just now, FPizz said: Been overcast here in NJ for a bit now Was gunna say. Been overcast since around 330pm. Nice breeze too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Just now, steve392 said: Was gunna say. Been overcast since around 330pm. Nice breeze too. Yup. Wife and I took the dogs for a walk like 40 minutes ago and we both were saying how nice it felt out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Rain will arrive tonight. A general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts in excess of 3.00" appears likely. Clouds will break tomorrow with the mercury rising into the upper 70s. However, the coolest air mass so far this season will then push into the region to begin the work week. Highs Monday through Wednesday will reach the lower and middle 70s. New York City will see lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As a result, Central Park will experience its first reading below 60° this season. the timing matches well with the last two El Niño events: 2015-2016: September 14 and 2023-2024: September 15. Wednesday through Friday will see temperatures recover mainly to the upper 70s. However, additional cool air will likely arrive some time during the next weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. The SOI was -29.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.761 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.2° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago How late in the day should do we see the rain clear out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 14 hours ago Author Share Posted 14 hours ago 4 minutes ago, steve392 said: How late in the day should do we see the rain clear out? Noon. Later east of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago About 6 - 8 hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Any short range models showing anything interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Highs: PHL: 83 New Brnswck: 82 TEB: 81 TTN: 81 EWR: 80 ACY: 79 LGA: 79 BLM: 78 NYC: 78 JFK: *77 ISP: 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 47 minutes ago, mikeysed said: Any short range models showing anything interesting? 0z HRRR has some spots getting 2 to 3 inches of rain while other spots get just a tenth to quarter inch. It looks like your typical summer downpours situation with some areas getting a lot of rain and other areas getting a little. Of course very difficult to predict which areas will get hard -- just have to watch radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 2 hours ago, mikeysed said: Any short range models showing anything interesting? Looks like a kind of split screw setup-the heavy rain area over Central PA maybe hits the I-84 area, then NYC/LI has to see what happens with the heavy rain area further south near DC. Between those areas probably ends up with little. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Is it worth talking about the thing that's all over social media? Six inches of rain around the 22nd from the remnants of a hurricane that only the GFS is showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago latest 03 HRRR reduced precip amounts west of NYC from previous runs - parts of central and north NJ only get a couple tenths of an inch - probably will change in future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago Very heavy rain with thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 20 hours ago, Keith Central PA said: Mid 80's for mid September is not an endless summer.It's 10 degrees above normal. Happens every September. Now low to mid 90's is unusual The definition we use for endless summer in the fall is highs of 80° or warmer. This year got off an early start for 80s back in March. So many locations across the region are in the top 5 for 80° days this year. The number Sep to Nov 80° days have more than tripled at the usual warm spots like Newark over their period of record. So now we just take a higher 80°+ days for granted in the fall. 2009 was the last time we had under 10 days reaching 80° during the fall at the locally warmer spots like Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago no way am i seeing mid 80's for late next week for nyc this will bust . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Heavy rain now. Hopefully the seed I laid down yesterday doesn’t all wash out. Saw that a flash flood warning was posted for southeastern Morris County down near Long Hill Township/Chatham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 20 minutes ago, nycwinter said: no way am i seeing mid 80's for late next week for nyc this will bust . NYC isn’t considered one of the local warm spots these days due to the artificial cooling from the trees. So the mid 80s will likely be from around Philly to perhaps Newark. This record breaking 600 dm ridge really moderated the cool down which was expected to follow for late September. New run Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liwxfan Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Kind of amazing how the precip is avoiding most of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC isn’t considered one of the local warm spots these days due to the artificial cooling from the trees. So the mid 80s will likely be from around Philly to perhaps Newark. This record breaking 600 dm ridge really moderated the cool down which was expected to follow for late September. New run Old run Looks like 70s all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Central PA Posted 59 minutes ago Share Posted 59 minutes ago 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The definition we use for endless summer in the fall is highs of 80° or warmer. This year got off an early start for 80s back in March. So many locations across the region are in the top 5 for 80° days this year. The number Sep to Nov 80° days have more than tripled at the usual warm spots like Newark over their period of record. So now we just take a higher 80°+ days for granted in the fall. 2009 was the last time we had under 10 days reaching 80° during the fall at the locally warmer spots like Newark. When I was growing up in the 60s and 70s there were many September days in the 80s especially the first half of the month.Even some days in the 90s..Its still officially Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago 20 hours ago, MANDA said: This ongoing and still strengthening El-Nino has allowed the 2026 tropical season (Pacific and Atlantic) to follow the Nino playbook to the letter and then some. If the coming Fall and Winter follow the Nino playbook as well as the tropical season has it is going to be a rough season for many in this sub forum. I'm taking an expect the worst and hope for the best approach. I think above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures (DJF) are pretty much a lock. We need to hope for a wet system to time itself with whatever cold air we can muster. Maybe we get a "big one" that way? Might be a big ask though. Maybe a more Modoki El-Nino can better save the day but think that is also a big ask. We'll see how we progress through Fall and go from there but keep expectations low. I suspect most sensible winter weather lovers are bracing for the reality that this Winter might suck. Looks like we’ll get an early sample of the super El Nino ridge north of the Great Lakes in late September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted 57 minutes ago Share Posted 57 minutes ago It appears that the western half of LI will end up on the lower end of predicted totals. The forks will be in the good stuff 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 52 minutes ago Share Posted 52 minutes ago Heavy rains here-flash flooding in progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted 47 minutes ago Share Posted 47 minutes ago 2.2 inches of rain last 90 minutes. Around 645am it was coming down about as hard as I've ever heard it. Northwest Essex County NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted 23 minutes ago Share Posted 23 minutes ago As of 8:00 AM, 1.5 inches of H2O so far. Heavy rain here presently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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