Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[CoastalWx]

7 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Was told this by @wxmeddler.  So @CoastalWx needs to shut up about calling it a "garbage model."  It's bias is known and not on purpose!   As I like to say, "would he prefer keeping the NAM?"

The over-convection and "big blobs" on the RRFS is a known bias or "bug" with the FV3 Dynamical Core. This was explored recently by Lou Wicker at OU (See: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-25-0230.1). In short, it can't really be fixed without significant changes to the core. OMD hasn't said it outright publicly but the original plan was to turn off the HRRR and RAP at the same time as the RRFS Operationalization. But they've scrapped that specifically because of the FV3 core issues. Now the plan is to turn off the HRRR and RAP when the RRFS transitions to the MPAS Core in ~2028. (https://www.weather.gov/media/wrn/calendar/RRFS_webinar_20260625.pdf)

Garbage model. I heard the MPAS version was better too. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Ha   talk about being white boarded 

1

[Typhoon Tip]

12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

We hit 44F this morning… felt autumn-ish.

Northern New England really is the last hold out for unrealized climate change…
 

For down here… even though we’re getting short changed we are still acclimated enough to think 44 feels like winter

 

[weathafella]

I actually would love to see a big benchmark track in mid winter with wind and rain everywhere in New England.  The head explosions would be worth the price of admission.  I don’t consider myself a mean person but I do have an evil bone at times….

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Northern New England really is the last hold out for unrealized climate change…
 

For down here… even though we’re getting short changed we are still acclimated enough to think 44 feels like winter

 

For us on the urban N MA coastal plane …… it is/does ….. as always …..

[OrangeCTWX]

First GFS Fantasy Land - not gonna happen hurricane near us that I can recall this year lol

[alex]

8 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

In a few days NNE will start getting temperatures regularly into the 40's most nights, maybe even a few upper 30's, as we head toward September. Swimming pools will be cooling down fast.  Even here, I expect the pool will have to be closed before Labor day, which is about the latest it ever comes. 

We actually managed a low of 39.9 at home last night - first 30s since June 10 

[alex]

7 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Yep,  I am at 2.20" since June 30th.  I live about 10 miles south of Rattlesnake.  The surface is very dry.  I thought we would finally get some real rain tonight but it looks like that won't happen.  Arrggghhhh

That’s bizarre. My PWS has recorded almost 4” in just the last 10 days (a good chunk of it from 2.71” on August 9)

[kdxken]

66°/64° and 0.03 in the bucket. Tropical morning.

[jlauderdal]

63/62 .32 in the high terrain.  Took a trip to Tanglewood yesterday, as expected, a few raindrops caused some of the lawn crowd to flee for the cars, not the bravest group of people you will ever see.  This weekend looks like it has potential.  

[CoastalWx]

Opened up my shades and this is what I saw looking right at me. 

[CoastalWx]

Those drought maps are classic. Shows the exact opposite of what is occuring. 

[dendrite]

64° -DZ 0.05” breezy

Kinda feels like mid September

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, jlauderdal said:

63/62 .32 in the high terrain.  Took a trip to Tanglewood yesterday, as expected, a few raindrops caused some of the lawn crowd to flee for the cars, not the bravest group of people you will ever see.  This weekend looks like it has potential.  

I am curious.  Are there a lot of mask wearers at Tanglewood?

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Opened up my shades and this is what I saw looking right at me. 

Pretty wet up here this AM, and all the way into Boston.

[Typhoon Tip]

[jlauderdal]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I am curious.  Are there a lot of mask wearers at Tanglewood?

Didnt see any masks, did see someone roll into the venue holding a Domino's pizza and a sleeping bag which was their version of a plaid blanket.  The logistics of getting that pizza to the lawn...probably bought in Pittsfield or Lee, transported, then carried from the parking lot through security and yes they had them open the pizza box for inspection.  

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, jlauderdal said:

63/62 .32 in the high terrain.  Took a trip to Tanglewood yesterday, as expected, a few raindrops caused some of the lawn crowd to flee for the cars, not the bravest group of people you will ever see.  This weekend looks like it has potential.  

Potential for sunny and dry ?

[jlauderdal]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Potential for sunny and dry ?

South of the MA/CT line dry slot

[HoarfrostHubb]

0.25” since midnight.   Heavy mist?   Light rain persisting.   

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Outside of a couple quick hitting rain events, this summer has completed lacked any appreciable storms or even showers.

 

Bone dry around here overall. A pond people fish at locally now only has water around the middle. Pretty crazy, never seen that. Rocks and all kinds of stuff exposed

[tamarack]

11 hours ago, weathafella said:

I actually would love to see a big benchmark track in mid winter with wind and rain everywhere in New England.  The head explosions would be worth the price of admission.  I don’t consider myself a mean person but I do have an evil bone at times….

That would be a real stretch here, as benchmark-track storms are usually whiffs or grazes.  The big midwinter wind/rain events like Jan 10 & 13, 2024 come with lows a lot closer.

The forecast 1/2-1" rain is a no show - now it's progged for >0.1".

[Typhoon Tip]

12 hours ago, weathafella said:

I actually would love to see a big benchmark track in mid winter with wind and rain everywhere in New England.  The head explosions would be worth the price of admission.  I don’t consider myself a mean person but I do have an evil bone at times….

I think I'd like to see that just because we don't seem to get coastal storms worth a shit nearly as often as yester-decades. The general dearth of ... something, anything really to substantiate and qualitatively argue for even having this hobby has become very challenging.

Otherwise?  have fun with 4 and half months in dark mud season stern.

[dendrite]

12 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Garbage model. I heard the MPAS version was better too. 

So wait. The RRFS is known to have “bugs” with the FV3 core and it can’t be fixed until 2028, but we’re retiring the NAM soon anyway? 

[metagraphica]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Those drought maps are classic. Shows the exact opposite of what is occuring. 

You didn't ask me but I suspect the US Drought Monitoring product should be taken with a grain of salt due to the subjective inclusion of personal scientist(s) opinions.  The product is a smoothed sort of mean between machine/climate/man

Heh, a an afterthought, what the last 20 .. 30 years of overly exposed information has been revealing about humanity is that how we used to think of as stone by the time information became ubiquitously known, is and always was suspect.  We can't trust PHDs of science... Judges of the Court ... CEOs?  forfuckumgetit!  Some are well intended, but even they are human - the rest are giant piles of agenda-guided rectal plaque. It's all made interminably more frustrating because well crafted social media content is also so often completely wrong baseless crap that 90% of civility doesn't possess enough analytic capability to adjudicate ... It's kind of ironic that this being the age of information is really evolved or mutated into the "age of disinformation"

The problem with these last decades is that (and probably is a good thing because it never should have been ) it teaches us to distrust both specific people, forces us to ponder how far does that extend to the over-arcing apparatuses of the "institution" too -

Now, with "Epsteinian" collusive forces that are (c'mon man, don't be naive) clearly integrating a reality that we are in fact guided sheep, corruption in all forms and colors - opinions are part of that - is now only a incompletely certain to morons. So yeah... we can trust the US DM "a little" more than RFK's MAHA health reforms. 

Anyway, the drought guide is in part machine, and then modulated by opinions of officers in the subject.  This latter aspect in kinder terms leaves it open to debate.   But regionally?  the farmers know