Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[CoastalWx]

7 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Was told this by @wxmeddler.  So @CoastalWx needs to shut up about calling it a "garbage model."  It's bias is known and not on purpose!   As I like to say, "would he prefer keeping the NAM?"

The over-convection and "big blobs" on the RRFS is a known bias or "bug" with the FV3 Dynamical Core. This was explored recently by Lou Wicker at OU (See: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-25-0230.1). In short, it can't really be fixed without significant changes to the core. OMD hasn't said it outright publicly but the original plan was to turn off the HRRR and RAP at the same time as the RRFS Operationalization. But they've scrapped that specifically because of the FV3 core issues. Now the plan is to turn off the HRRR and RAP when the RRFS transitions to the MPAS Core in ~2028. (https://www.weather.gov/media/wrn/calendar/RRFS_webinar_20260625.pdf)

Garbage model. I heard the MPAS version was better too. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Ha   talk about being white boarded 

1

[Typhoon Tip]

12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

We hit 44F this morning… felt autumn-ish.

Northern New England really is the last hold out for unrealized climate change…
 

For down here… even though we’re getting short changed we are still acclimated enough to think 44 feels like winter

 

[weathafella]

I actually would love to see a big benchmark track in mid winter with wind and rain everywhere in New England.  The head explosions would be worth the price of admission.  I don’t consider myself a mean person but I do have an evil bone at times….

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Northern New England really is the last hold out for unrealized climate change…
 

For down here… even though we’re getting short changed we are still acclimated enough to think 44 feels like winter

 

For us on the urban N MA coastal plane …… it is/does ….. as always …..

[OrangeCTWX]

First GFS Fantasy Land - not gonna happen hurricane near us that I can recall this year lol

[alex]

8 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

In a few days NNE will start getting temperatures regularly into the 40's most nights, maybe even a few upper 30's, as we head toward September. Swimming pools will be cooling down fast.  Even here, I expect the pool will have to be closed before Labor day, which is about the latest it ever comes. 

We actually managed a low of 39.9 at home last night - first 30s since June 10 

[alex]

7 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Yep,  I am at 2.20" since June 30th.  I live about 10 miles south of Rattlesnake.  The surface is very dry.  I thought we would finally get some real rain tonight but it looks like that won't happen.  Arrggghhhh

That’s bizarre. My PWS has recorded almost 4” in just the last 10 days (a good chunk of it from 2.71” on August 9)