Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[CoastalWx]

7 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Was told this by @wxmeddler.  So @CoastalWx needs to shut up about calling it a "garbage model."  It's bias is known and not on purpose!   As I like to say, "would he prefer keeping the NAM?"

The over-convection and "big blobs" on the RRFS is a known bias or "bug" with the FV3 Dynamical Core. This was explored recently by Lou Wicker at OU (See: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-25-0230.1). In short, it can't really be fixed without significant changes to the core. OMD hasn't said it outright publicly but the original plan was to turn off the HRRR and RAP at the same time as the RRFS Operationalization. But they've scrapped that specifically because of the FV3 core issues. Now the plan is to turn off the HRRR and RAP when the RRFS transitions to the MPAS Core in ~2028. (https://www.weather.gov/media/wrn/calendar/RRFS_webinar_20260625.pdf)

Garbage model. I heard the MPAS version was better too. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Ha   talk about being white boarded 

1

[Typhoon Tip]

12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

We hit 44F this morning… felt autumn-ish.

Northern New England really is the last hold out for unrealized climate change…
 

For down here… even though we’re getting short changed we are still acclimated enough to think 44 feels like winter