Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[dendrite]

Definite wood smoke smell in the air tonight…not sure if it’s QB, but I assume it is

[powderfreak]

82/48 today, with a breeze.

Perfect summer weather.  AC not needed on these days.

[Torch Tiger]

chilly out there, bring back summer

[WinterWolf]

Radar looking very healthy and juiced…and heading this way.  

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

chilly out there, bring back summer

72 and muggy…not chilly here. 

[vortex95]

On 7/5/2026 at 12:59 PM, ineedsnow said:

we wish we were here 

Just by going by sat imagery alone and Bavi's clear and large eye, the centroid of the eye looks like it passed about 6 nm N of the N tip of Rota using EIR.  

VIS is tougher b/c you have mesovorts within the eye rotating around one another.  Each mesovort has its own pressure minimum, and one of those may have crossed Rota.  Just curious how this is counted.  It is obviously a direct hit but does it count as a landfall?  Rota clearly got in the eye, but the centroid was just N.

Looking at radar at it's closest approach, looks like the centroid just passed to the N.  Radar is better than sat in this case b/c even at 14N, there is a bit of a parallax error in geostationary imagery.
 

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I think I saw vortex95 mention this but the reflectivity gradient along the leading edge of those storms was about as textbook as you'll see for these parts, hell that would even be impressive anywhere else. Anytime you see a super strong wind signature like that I guess there is the risk for a brief spinup but I don't think there was anything really pointing towards a tornado or rotation. Velocity signatures on all radar sites was pretty evident with straight-line wind signatures and if you look at the environment, there really wasn't anything supportive for tornado formation. Just a textbook classic setup for straightline winds and widespread given the development of a cold pool. 

Could have been some gustnadoes in there, but yes, it was trying to "derecho."  Let's makes nouns into verbs for weenie sake!   CoastalWx does things this except he omits verbs such as, "WE SNOW!"  He also likes to say, "I HAZ..."!
 

[vortex95]

Pasadena MD 7/5.  Listen w/ headphones/earbuds for the full effect!
https://www.facebook.com/reel/2524504421303837

[moneypitmike]

It appears any lingering questions some may have had of where the the heavy rain would set up has been answered..  Looks like we've got ourselves at CT/RI/coastal SE Mass deluge situation.

[mahk_webstah]

On 7/2/2026 at 7:14 PM, dendrite said:

0.12"

77/76 and swampy now

That line was talking a big game. All show and no grow.

[SJonesWX]

11 hours ago, dendrite said:

Definite wood smoke smell in the air tonight…not sure if it’s QB, but I assume it is

fireworks smoke, probably 

[ineedsnow]

Beautiful out!! Cloudy and cool.. windows open 

[Ginx snewx]

[yoda]

Is this what @weatherwiz is salivating over? Lol

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an
   increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado
   Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may
   continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the
   interior U.S. by early next week.  How far north and northeast this
   builds remains unclear;  however, a plume of very warm elevated
   mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern
   through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will
   contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized
   severe thunderstorm development.  

   It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central
   Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the
   Northeast.  By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in
   particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave
   trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis,
   which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm
   development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. 
   Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and
   model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less
   than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could
   change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.

   ..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

[weatherwiz]

30 minutes ago, yoda said:

Is this what @weatherwiz is salivating over? Lol

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an
   increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado
   Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may
   continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the
   interior U.S. by early next week.  How far north and northeast this
   builds remains unclear;  however, a plume of very warm elevated
   mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern
   through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will
   contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized
   severe thunderstorm development.  

   It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central
   Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the
   Northeast.  By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in
   particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave
   trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis,
   which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm
   development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. 
   Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and
   model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less
   than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could
   change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.

   ..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

We can only hope 

[kdxken]

65° sure feels nice.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

it hasn't even really started for CT yet.. congrats on 3 plus

It’s over by morning 

[Brian5671]

There's a thread for today's event....

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

On 7/4/2026 at 1:32 AM, vortex95 said:

Take a look at this short paper from 2004.  Odds are it has been exceeded, and since 2004?  Several candidates (Haiyan in Nov 2013 almost certainly).
 

strongerTC.pdf 82.79 kB · 1 download

Yeah, at the very least I would say that Gay in 1992, Angela in 1995, Haiyan in 2013, and Meranti in 2016 have all surpassed Tip. Maybe Patricia in 2015 and Monica in 2006, as well. I remember seeing some estimates of pressures in the 860s for Monica, but nothing proven. Patricia may have also surpassed Tip since it was still intensifying after the record breaking recon pass.

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Yeah, at the very least I would say that Gay in 1992, Angela in 1995, Haiyan in 2013, and Meranti in 2016 have all surpassed Tip. Maybe Patricia in 2015 and Monica in 2006, as well. I remember seeing some estimates of pressures in the 860s for Monica, but nothing proven. Patricia may have also surpassed Tip since it was still intensifying after the record breaking recon pass.

Patricia's 872 mb was estimated.  Recon timing was such we missed its absolute peak.  One got 880 mb and the next 879 mb, but in between those (it was over 6 apart, maybe 12?), Patricia was still in RI mode, and then had slightly weakened a bit on satellite when recon measured 879 mb.   So we know it was lower that 879 mb.  872 mb was decided on somewhat subjectively, but it easily could have been lower than that.   I have noticed when it comes to world records, the WMO will avoid estimates as to the official record, and estimating a world record has it own logistical and social issues!

Something similar occurred w/ Isabel in 2003.  Its first recon was cancelled and it was the same day it peaked intensity.  When the first recon got there the next day, Isabel had undergone an ERC and the eye diameter had almost doubled, yet they still found 920 mb / 140 kt.  In the BT data, Isabel is listed as 915 mb / 145 kt the day before the recon, but given what we know about ERCs and how much the eye pressure typical rises in a cycle, I bet Isabel actually had a min pressure 900-905 mb!

Then Isabel went on to be the best example of an annular hurricane in the Atlantic we have see since the satellite era began!

[vortex95]

16 hours ago, yoda said:

Is this what @weatherwiz is salivating over? Lol

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an
   increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado
   Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may
   continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the
   interior U.S. by early next week.  How far north and northeast this
   builds remains unclear;  however, a plume of very warm elevated
   mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern
   through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will
   contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized
   severe thunderstorm development.  

   It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central
   Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the
   Northeast.  By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in
   particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave
   trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis,
   which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm
   development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. 
   Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and
   model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less
   than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could
   change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.

   ..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

Mean trough position in the E UFN.  So solid big WxWiz weenie tstm chances are there!

[vortex95]

For all the hype talk about the big ridging and heat for the CONUS coming up central and west, looking at the anomalies fcst, esp. at 850, it isn't nearly as impressive as you would think for a large 600 dm high center spread out over the country.  Take a look at the 00z ECMWF at 162 hr 500/850 when the 600 dm center is most prominent (attached).

Big heat is limited to the northern tier, and just MEH central and south.  What is happening in this case, the ridge center and axis is so far N, you actually get very weak troughing and a rather moist tropical-type air mass over much of the southern half of the country (see 700 RH fcst attached).

Pattern for us looks quite good for svr.  "Over the top" ridge EML should be fed nicely into the NEUS.
 

[Damage In Tolland]

Can we all please get this in our yards ?

https://x.com/maxvelocitywx/status/2074336458748416424?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[CoastalWx]

We heat and dews later this week. 

[Layman]

3 hours ago, vortex95 said:

For all the hype talk about the big ridging and heat for the CONUS coming up central and west, looking at the anomalies fcst, esp. at 850, it isn't nearly as impressive as you would think for a large 600 dm high center spread out over the country.  Take a look at the 00z ECMWF at 162 hr 500/850 when the 600 dm center is most prominent (attached).

Big heat is limited to the northern tier, and just MEH central and south.  What is happening in this case, the ridge center and axis is so far N, you actually get very weak troughing and a rather moist tropical-type air mass over much of the southern half of the country (see 700 RH fcst attached).

Pattern for us looks quite good for svr.  "Over the top" ridge EML should be fed nicely into the NEUS.
 

I saw this and thought it might resonate