Big Heat (and storms?) Week into July 4th Weekend

[pazzo83]

DCA officially had an 87/80 on the 1am ob for a heat index of 103F.  Come on man.

[yoda]

88/74/96 at 3am at DCA... toasty 

[Interstate]

75.9/70/77 right now. 

[stormy]

68.3 after 100.3 at 5:30 yesterday.

[SnowenOutThere]

8 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Nothing wrong or invalid in saying that.  Mainstream narratives vary all the time, what is "in" and "out" changes, including in the sciences. 

Narratives for science issues are often dictated by non-science-based factors, no?   Recency bias is a big one -- what is occurring now or in the recent past, is how it is and will be going forward (and the negative bias is huge).  The more one looks at logical fallacies and cognitive biases, and how they influence us all and are used manipulate the population, one see things for what they really are.

Also, science evolves.  What is said or known now is going to change over time at various levels.  There is societal arrogance that exists that we know best in the here and now and everything is figured out b/c things have come so far.  That's not what history has shown.  There is still a lot we do not know.

I guess my question for you is who even has climate change as the preferred narrative anymore? The White House thinks it’s a hoax, all of “mainstream media” have had their owners replaced with people who are at the bare minimum sympathetic to climate denialism, and in general the political zeitgeist has moved on. If anything, the current political climate has denialism as the ideology it would push. Of course, I agree that there are social media accounts trying to hype up all of us dying but they are doing that for their own fame and any commentary on climate change is secondary to their own profit. 

[SnowenOutThere]

It’s been hot and humid in northern PA. Had storms move through near midnight that were prolific lightning producers. Good old fashioned storm borne of heat and humidity. You could tell the whole atmosphere was ready to go and has reset back to being unstable overnight. 

[snowfan]

Looks like DCA had a low of 84. Canaan nwr had a low of 58. Probably felt cold in comparison.

[vortex95]

10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I guess my question for you is who even has climate change as the preferred narrative anymore? The White House thinks it’s a hoax, all of “mainstream media” have had their owners replaced with people who are at the bare minimum sympathetic to climate denialism, and in general the political zeitgeist has moved on. If anything, the current political climate has denialism as the ideology it would push. Of course, I agree that there are social media accounts trying to hype up all of us dying but they are doing that for their own fame and any commentary on climate change is secondary to their own profit. 

Thanks for the feedback/input.

Climate hype is still rife on social media, and if you look at a lot of MSM news and wx segments, they are still pushing the gloom and doom narrative often.  Also, even w/ politics shifted this country, look at a lot of rest of the world and organizations like the UN and WEF.  The end of the word narrative from AGW is alive and well still.

And going one step further, this is case of "bad news sells," which is apolitical, so that's what drives it a lot.  The boogie man changes over time, but its is always there out to get us.  In the 70s, it was pollution in general and the ice age coming, in the 80s, it was the ozone layer and acid rain, and by the 90s it switched to climate change and has not looked back.

The deniliasm part is merely subset of any problem that exists and is hype or over-promoted.  Par for the course.

I don't like denialism as a term, as much as I don't like blindly embracing a narrative or ideology.  That's a false dichotomy and suggests a lack of critical thinking.  As w/ many things, the truth often lies in between.  Not exactly 50-50 w/ every issue either, and things are often a lot more complex than they seem w/ no easy answers as well.

[Eskimo Joe]

45% wind today for the I-95 corridor and thus an enhanced wind risk. Impressive EML pushing into us. Someone is going to get a solid storm.

[dailylurker]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

45% wind today for the I-95 corridor and thus an enhanced wind risk. Impressive EML pushing into us. Someone is going to get a solid storm.

Thanks for changing the subject lol. Today has the big storm vibe. It was lacking the past two days. Today feels different. LFG! Happy 4th to everyone. Hopefully storms happen between plans.

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Thanks for changing the subject lol. Today has the big storm vibe. It was lacking the past two days. Today feels different. LFG! Happy 4th to everyone. Hopefully storms happen between plans.

Today's the day where some wicked storm fires up and we see a top to 45-50,000 ft.

[kgottwald]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

Climate hype is still rife on social media, and if you look at a lot of MSM news and wx segments, they are still pushing the gloom and doom narrative often.  Also, even w/ politics shifted this country, look at a lot of rest of the world and organizations like the UN and WEF.  The end of the word narrative from AGW is alive and well still.

Yeah, almost every time an article from The Guardian appeared in my feed, it was "Climate catastrophe!! World ending, everyone's gonna die!!" I guess they're some of the folks pushing for "degrowth". I had to block them, because I'm damn sick and tired of seeing nothing but bad news, all day, every day.

[Mrs.J]

82/70/84

Juat watered my grass seed and garden and deck plants. Was quite comfortable in the shade. 

[Bubbler86]

15 hours ago, Kay said:

There's a squirrel imby chilling on the ground, in the shade, sort of like a dog does in the heat. Bit of an odd sight. Must not care about being eaten by a fox atm, the ground coolness is all.  This must be getting a bit tough for some of the fur bearing wildlife. Reminds me to keep birdbaths full.

97/82

We call it flattening when they do that.  Guessing it lets them cool off.   We usually go through 100 peanuts a day and they are not eating much right now.   I also saw some chickens panting which is not a common sight. 

[MN Transplant]

Another 84 for a morning low at DCA, but whether this one holds through the day is more questionable than yesterday.

[WxUSAF]

Seems less hazy this morning to my eyes. Sky is a deeper blue. Signs of the ridge weakening?

[GramaxRefugee]

DP slightly lower this morning at 75.

Currently 84/75 climbing from low of 77 after high of 98 yesterday, same as Thursday. 

[MN Transplant]

Temps running about 1-2 degrees lower than yesterday through 9am.

[Eskimo Joe]

12z IAD has over 4,000 surfsce cape and over 1,500 dcape, but a convective temp of 100°. There's rocket fuel to tap if something can take off.

[SnowenOutThere]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems less hazy this morning to my eyes. Sky is a deeper blue. Signs of the ridge weakening?

Comparing the soundings from yesterday to today and the whole temperature axis is shifted a bit cooler. On a different note, what a thermodynamic environment for severe weather today. 

We have 1500 SBCAPE at 6am which is... pretty good. Sadly, like our of all severe weather potential our ML lapse rates probably suck with a value of *checks notes* 9.3 C/km? If we get storms they will have no issue growing up to the tropopause and then crashing back down. I'm up in northern PA so I'll miss out on the fun, but yesterday night had some of the best lightning storms I've had in years. Pouring rain, loud strikes, and constant heat lightning beforehand. 

[MN Transplant]

Hopefully the gif works.  Fun representation of the temps with the impact of the convection later today from the RRFS.

[NorthArlington101]

Would love a storm to roll through before the fireworks to cool us off. Between the flyovers and the fireworks maybe?

Another one after the fireworks to clear the smoke out would be great, but that’s probably too much to ask for.

[MN Transplant]

27 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Would love a storm to roll through before the fireworks to cool us off. Between the flyovers and the fireworks maybe?

Another one after the fireworks to clear the smoke out would be great, but that’s probably too much to ask for.

Funny enough, that's exactly what the HRRR is showing.  

[Roger Ramjet]

30 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Comparing the soundings from yesterday to today and the whole temperature axis is shifted a bit cooler. On a different note, what a thermodynamic environment for severe weather today. 

We have 1500 SBCAPE at 6am which is... pretty good. Sadly, like our of all severe weather potential our ML lapse rates probably suck with a value of *checks notes* 9.3 C/km? If we get storms they will have no issue growing up to the tropopause and then crashing back down. I'm up in northern PA so I'll miss out on the fun, but yesterday night had some of the best lightning storms I've had in years. Pouring rain, loud strikes, and constant heat lightning beforehand. 

 

29 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Hopefully the gif works.  Fun representation of the temps with the impact of the convection later today from the RRFS.

 

31 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Comparing the soundings from yesterday to today and the whole temperature axis is shifted a bit cooler. On a different note, what a thermodynamic environment for severe weather today. 

We have 1500 SBCAPE at 6am which is... pretty good. Sadly, like our of all severe weather potential our ML lapse rates probably suck with a value of *checks notes* 9.3 C/km? If we get storms they will have no issue growing up to the tropopause and then crashing back down. I'm up in northern PA so I'll miss out on the fun, but yesterday night had some of the best lightning storms I've had in years. Pouring rain, loud strikes, and constant heat lightning beforehand. 

No such thing as heat lightning. It's a distant thunderstorm.

[SnowenOutThere]

7 minutes ago, Roger Ramjet said:

 

 

No such thing as heat lightning. It's a distant thunderstorm.

I think heat lightning rolls off the tongue better than lightning from a distant thunderstorm. 

[mappy]

97 yesterday for a high.

Headed up to York later today to watch baseball and fireworks. We got a suite box so I will be incredibly glad for the inside AC part of our box 

[pazzo83]

17 minutes ago, mappy said:

97 yesterday for a high.

Headed up to York later today to watch baseball and fireworks. We got a suite box so I will be incredibly glad for the inside AC part of our box 

baseball and fireworks is a 100/100 America score

[pazzo83]

94 at 10am at DCA - but dews are back into the 60s, so it actually doesn't feel as horrible.

[JakkelWx]

a couple DE mesonets already up to 96. certainly feels that way outside. but the dew has dropped all the way to 65. surely that bodes well for storms later. 0.7" since june 1st

[pazzo83]

BOS had back-to-back 100+ highs and 80+ lows - that's pretty insane, AND they stayed above 80 again overnight.