Big Heat (and storms?) Week into July 4th Weekend

[yoda]

Figured as @CAPE said to make a thread about it since the heat is coming... will it break records?  Discuss!

[yoda]

I believe it was @Ian who coined the 90 by 11am (or was it 10am?) for DCA to breach 100 degrees?

[MN Transplant]

2pm temps Wed-Sat at DCA from the 00z or 06z runs on 6/28:

Operational Runs:

• Euro: 95/102/105/104
• GFS: 99/101/103/102
• ICON: 96/102/105/105
• GDPS: 98/102/103/102

AI Runs

• EuroAI: 97/100/101/98
• AIGFS: 96/99/101/96

Ensembles

• EPS: 97/103/104/99
• GEFS: 99/101/99/97
• EuroAI: 99/102/99/95
• CMCE:  99/103/104/96

 

[MN Transplant]

22 minutes ago, yoda said:

I believe it was @Ian who coined the 90 by 11am (or was it 10am?) for DCA to breach 100 degrees?

It was 10am.  

[WinstonSalemArlington]

My heart goes out to Doug Kammerer

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

I believe it was @Ian who coined the 90 by 11am (or was it 10am?) for DCA to breach 100 degrees?

If DCA hits 90° by 10am, 100° is almost a lock. You almost need 90°by 11am or its not happening. Getting 100° in these parts is rare, getting 100°+ is even rarer. 

[NorthArlington101]

I’ll take the under on 100s - one day the streak will break but I’ll just assume we can’t do it til we can.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ll take the under on 100s - one day the streak will break but I’ll just assume we can’t do it til we can.

Same. This thing has been hyped so much that we almost need it to verify to save face.

[AnEndlessMaze]

I was thinking of doing a heatwave contest but then that might jinx it 

[IronTy]

I wonder if TWC will start naming heat domes like they do winter storms?  Heat Dome Aaron?

[astarck]

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ll take the under on 100s - one day the streak will break but I’ll just assume we can’t do it til we can.

What streak is that? DCA hit 100 just a couple weeks ago.

[pazzo83]

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If DCA hits 90° by 10am, 100° is almost a lock. You almost need 90°by 11am or its not happening. Getting 100° in these parts is rare, getting 100°+ is even rarer. 

honestly with the dry soil and the right wind direction, we can sneak one in if we are in the upper 90s by 1pm.  It happened a couple weeks back

[pazzo83]

3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ll take the under on 100s - one day the streak will break but I’ll just assume we can’t do it til we can.

What streak?

[NorthArlington101]

What streak?

Did we really hit 100 a couple weeks ago per the comment above? I thought we hadn’t hit it since like 2012. Guess I am talking out of my butt a bit but feel like we never get there - at least formally at the airports

[vortex95]

14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Did we really hit 100 a couple weeks ago per the comment above? I thought we hadn’t hit it since like 2012. Guess I am talking out of my butt a bit but feel like we never get there - at least formally at the airports

It hit 100 at DCA on 6/12.  DCA ended its 5th longest streak of no 100 F on 6/22/24 (2867 days).

[NorthArlington101]

It hit 100 at DCA on 6/12.  DCA ended its 5th longest streak of no 100 F on 6/22/24 (2867 days).

Guess it can be done! Bring on 105F.

[pazzo83]

39 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Did we really hit 100 a couple weeks ago per the comment above? I thought we hadn’t hit it since like 2012. Guess I am talking out of my butt a bit but feel like we never get there - at least formally at the airports

we hit it six times back in 2024, with the hottest being 104.  That was the first time since 2016 I believe.  We hit 100 a couple weeks back as well.

[pazzo83]

22 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

It hit 100 at DCA on 6/12.  DCA ended its 5th longest streak of no 100 F on 6/22/24 (2867 days).

the stretch in July 2024 was one of the worst - 4 straight days of 101F+, which was a record.  We'll see how this one stacks up.

[NorthArlington101]

the stretch in July 2024 was one of the worst - 4 straight days of 101F+, which was a record.  We'll see how this one stacks up.

I can’t believe I don’t remember this at all! Thanks for the reminder.

[pazzo83]

2024 was a pretty insane year in terms of heat around here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/12/30/washington-dc-warmest-year-climate/
 

First January 80F on record, Nov temp of 84F was the warmest on record so late in the year.  The 100F temps, the most 80F+ lows on record (8).  But still a pedestrian 48 90+ days.  IT was just kind of wall-to-wall warm.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Personally, I can't stand extreme heat and consider it a "win" if we can avoid a ton of mid-upper 90s or 100+ degree days in any given summer!  Hell, last August was about one of the most pleasant Augusts I can recall in this area, in a summer that wasn't overly insufferable.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 hours ago, IronTy said:

I wonder if TWC will start naming heat domes like they do winter storms?  Heat Dome Aaron?

Don't give them any ideas!

[MN Transplant]

4 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I can’t believe I don’t remember this at all! Thanks for the reminder.

The thing that helped 2024 was that it was really dry in that period.  It’ll be interesting to see if this weekend’s rain has any affect by later this week.

[pazzo83]

Do we think DC ties/breaks its all time record of 106F?

[nw baltimore wx]

4 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Do we think DC ties/breaks its all time record of 106F?

I don’t think so, and I don’t think it’s even close, but I’m a goober.

[Weather Will]

For those that want to cool off....

Advisories

---

One product issued by NWS for: 5 Miles N Deer Lodge MT

---

 

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Missoula MT
616 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

MTZ007-280830-
/O.CON.KMSO.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260629T1500Z/
Butte/Blackfoot Region-
616 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY ABOVE
6500 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected above 6500 feet. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with 8 to 16 inches across the
  Anaconda Pintler Mountains. Snow levels may briefly lower and could
  produce minor slushy accumulation at Homestake and Macdonald Pass.

* WHERE...Georgetown Lake, backcountry and higher elevation areas.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM MDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan for winter-like conditions in the backcountry and
  higher elevations. Cold temperatures, wind, and wet snow will
  elevate the risk of hypothermia. Heavy wet snow may down trees,
  blocking access to backcountry roadways.

[CAPE]

Predicted high of 104 here on Friday. But 103 in Philly. Interesting.

I'll take the under here. 99. Never seen 100 here, but maybe this will be the one.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Predicted high of 104 here on Friday. But 103 in Philly. Interesting.

I'll take the under here. 99. Never seen 100 here, but maybe this will be the one.

I don’t think it’s hit 100 in Greensboro or Winston-Salem since 2012.

[CAPE]

8 hours ago, Weather Will said:

For those that want to cool off....

Advisories

---

One product issued by NWS for: 5 Miles N Deer Lodge MT

---

 

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Missoula MT
616 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

MTZ007-280830-
/O.CON.KMSO.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260629T1500Z/
Butte/Blackfoot Region-
616 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY ABOVE
6500 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected above 6500 feet. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with 8 to 16 inches across the
  Anaconda Pintler Mountains. Snow levels may briefly lower and could
  produce minor slushy accumulation at Homestake and Macdonald Pass.

* WHERE...Georgetown Lake, backcountry and higher elevation areas.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM MDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan for winter-like conditions in the backcountry and
  higher elevations. Cold temperatures, wind, and wet snow will
  elevate the risk of hypothermia. Heavy wet snow may down trees,
  blocking access to backcountry roadways.

Hypothermia there, Heatstroke here lol

[H2O]

It’s gonna be hot for a few days. Can’t do much about it. All I care about is how long will it last. Hope the models are right and it breaks down the ridge after Sunday