July 2026

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Why isn't tomorrow's storm generating more buzz on here? 3-6 inches of rain can be catastrophic.

Because most of the models are showing anywhere from a quarter inch to half a foot. high bust potential 

[Voyager]

27 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Why isn't tomorrow's storm generating more buzz on here? 3-6 inches of rain can be catastrophic.

It's not generating buzz on any of the forums.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Because most of the models are showing anywhere from a quarter inch to half a foot. high bust potential 

yeah it's not a widespread event-it's hit or miss for most of us

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

WPIX trying to increase their ratings or decrease them ?

I have no clue why they show these maps on TV. TV mets should be a little more responsible than Twitter "mets" and hypesters. Yet here we are. 

[winterwx21]

6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

And nam is mostly Wednesday morning

Which is obviously wrong. It continues to appear that there will be a smaller round for late morning and midday, and then the potential major round for early evening. We could get hit hard around 5 to 7pm, but we'll have to see if there's enough sunshine during the afternoon break to really fire up the atmosphere and increase the risk of the early evening storms being severe. 

[weatheruser]

50 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I have no clue why they show these maps on TV. TV mets should be a little more responsible than Twitter "mets" and hypesters. Yet here we are. 

I also didn't realize Edison renamed themselves Newark

[Stormlover74]

37 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Which is obviously wrong. It continues to appear that there will be a smaller round for late morning and midday, and then the potential major round for early evening. We could get hit hard around 5 to 7pm, but we'll have to see if there's enough sunshine during the afternoon break to really fire up the atmosphere and increase the risk of the early evening storms being severe. 

Now it shifted to tomorrow 

[qg_omega]

[donsutherland1]

The overnight HREF:

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I have no clue why they show these maps on TV. TV mets should be a little more responsible than Twitter "mets" and hypesters. Yet here we are. 

The futurecast is essentially useless at 36-48 hours. It's akin to a 120-hour NAM run (NAM ends at 84 hours, just so one has context for my analogy). Not surprisingly, last night's figures were dramatically lowered and are now in line with the guidance.

https://pix11.com/news/local-news/projected-rainfall-totals-in-ny-nj-ahead-of-storms/

[NEG NAO]

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The futurecast is essentially useless at 36-48 hours. It's akin to a 120-hour NAM run (NAM ends at 84 hours, just so one has context for my analogy). Not surprisingly, last night's figures were dramatically lowered and are now in line with the guidance.

https://pix11.com/news/local-news/projected-rainfall-totals-in-ny-nj-ahead-of-storms/

someone should tell them Newark isn't located in Middlesex County - as for todays precip the flow is southwesterly and so far nothing has developed to our southwest but its still very early - another question is - how unstable is the atmosphere going to actually get later today to produce any watches and where exactly is this all going to setup - favored areas in central NJ and NYC??? or can that change ?

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

someone should tell them Newark isn't located in Middlesex County - as for todays precip the flow is southwesterly and so far nothing has developed to our southwest but its still very early - another question is - how unstable is the atmosphere going to actually get later today to produce any watches and where exactly is this all going to setup - favored areas in central NJ and NYC??? or can that change ?

Looking like N NJ and Hudson Valley are favored for heavy rain then some zone south of there with a split screw zone in the middle. You can already see a good bit of rain headed for the favored N NJ/Hudson Valley area. 

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looking like N NJ and Hudson Valley are favored for heavy rain then some zone south of there with a split screw zone in the middle. You can already see a good bit of rain headed for the favored N NJ/Hudson Valley area. 

Yes and there is some clearing to our west - but how much of that is going to reach us ? Also today is not going to be a complete washout like Saturday was - the Upton forecast makes it sound more like a overall rainy - stormy day

[SACRUS]

76 / 60 and much more humid air moves in on the southerly flow ahead of the front.  Storms  / rain into northern areas and some clearing working east out of PA to potentially heat things up for some unstable triggers later.  Still think we have clouds and showers lingering a bit tomorrow before clearing out.  Overall below normal 7/23 - 7/29 and with the trough in place id look for more unforeseen storms / rain chances early next week Monday.  Beyond there western ridge builds heat and the atlantic ridge is building wst.  7/30 - beyond moderation to a warmer/ humid and next shot at heat potential.

 

[jm1220]

30 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Yes and there is some clearing to our west - but how much of that is going to reach us ? Also today is not going to be a complete washout like Saturday was - the Upton forecast makes it sound more like a overall rainy - stormy day

It might be NW of the city. East of the city looks like the split screw area based on short term modeling. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 103 (2011)
NYC: 104 (1977)
LGA: 100 (2019)
JFK: 99 (2019)



Lows:

EWR: 56 (1951)
NYC: 55 (1890)
LGA: 62 (1974)
JFK: 58 (1965)
 

 

 

Historical:

 

1911 - The temperature at Painter, WY, dipped to 10 degrees to equal the record low for July for the continental U.S. (The Weather Channel)

1930: The state record for Delaware was established that day with a reading of 110 °F at Millsboro, Delaware. (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States)

1934 - The temperature reached 109 degrees at Cincinnati, OH, to cap their hottest summer of record. The state record for Ohio was established that day with a reading of 113 degrees near the town of Gallipolis. (David Ludlum)

1939: Richmond, Virginia had a high temperature for the day of 65 °F making it the coolest July day on record (records since 1897). (Ref. Richmond Weather Records)

1942: This is the only occurrence Miami, FL has ever seen 100°. (Extreme Weather p. 273, by Christopher C. Burt)

1947: Holt, MO records world record 12 inches of rain in only 42 minutes.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1975 - Six inches of rain fell across Mercer County, NJ, in just ten hours causing the worst flooding in twenty years. Assunpink Creek crested eleven feet above flood stage at Hamilton and Trenton, the highest level of record. Traffic was brought to a standstill, and railway service between New York City and Washington D.C. was cut off for two days. Flooding left 1000 persons homeless, and caused an estimated 25 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

 

1979: Parts of Lancaster County into the west central Chester County, Pennsylvania region was hit with torrential rain during the morning, with most of the rain falling in about 5 hours. In Chester County, Newlinville received 8.11 inches and Valley Township 7.56 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1986: A tremendous heat wave continued across the South. This was the 15th day in a row with 100° plus degree readings at Columbia, SC. Macon, GA topped out at 106 °F. It was also the 10th consecutive day with 100° degree plus heat at Macon. (Extreme Weather p. 273, by Christopher C. Burt) (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Utah to North Dakota, spawning a dozen tornadoes in North Dakota. Thunderstorms in North Dakota also produced baseball size hail at Clifford which caused four million dollars damage, and high winds which toppled a couple of eighty foot towers cutting off power to the town of Blanchard. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - While cool air invaded the central U.S., unseasonably hot weather continued over the western states. The temperature at Spring Valley, NV, soared from a morning low of 35 degrees to an afternoon high of 95 degrees. Fallon, NV, reported an all-time record high of 108 degrees, and Death Valley, CA, reported their sixth straight day of 120 degree heat. (The Weather Channel) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Afternoon thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 92 mph at Jacksonville, damaging thirteen light planes at Herlong Field. Five cities in Texas reported record low temperatures for the date. Corpus Christi, TX, equalled their record low for the date with a reading of 71 degrees, and then tied their record high for the date that afternoon with a reading of 97 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


1991: Boston, MA recorded 81 °F for the warmest low temperature. 100 degree readings are not common in Rhode Island, but the mercury topped out at 102° at Providence on this day, the second day in a row that the thermometer reached the century mark.  (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1993: The Mississippi River crested at 46.9 feet at St. Louis, MO, easily breaking the old record of 43.2 feet established in the 1973 flood. The 11 mile long, 52 foot high flood wall kept water out of the city center. In spite of all the damage the flood did, it is estimated that without all of the flood-control measures in place today, the price tag from the flood would have easily doubled its astronomical $20 billion total. The record crest would be topped again on August 1st.  The heavy rainfall that occurred earlier in the month set the stage for what became the flood of the century in Iowa. The city of Des Moines was very hard hit. At the peak of the flooding, nearly 35,000 households were without electricity and 50,000 were without power. Water service was out for 250,000 people, which is the largest water outage in United States history. Losses to the businesses in Des Moines were estimated at $800 million dollars, from physical damage to the buildings and lost business. Other damage in Des Moines included $30 million dollars to homes, $75 million dollars to the levee system and $20 million dollars to the water treatment plant. Damage to West Des Moines was also well over $30 million dollars. Crop damage was extensive as 6.5 million acres of cropland were damaged by the flood. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1995: A camper at Colonial Beach in Westmoreland County, VA took refuge under a tree during a thunderstorm. The tree was struck by lightning, which in turn caused second degree burns over 20 percent of the camper's body. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

1997: Extreme flooding occurred over Baldwin County, Alabama as the remnants of Hurricane Danny drifted slowly northeastward after dumping 30 inches of rain over coastal Alabama. The worst flooding occurred around the Fish River where 500 homes were damaged. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1999: The Cedar River in Charles City, IA reached its all-time crest of an estimated 22.8 feet. Approximately 100 homes had flood damage in Charles City. Almost 12 inches of rain fell in a 48 hours period over these counties. Rainfall totals that day: New Hampton, IA: 7.10 inches (wettest day on record), Charles City, IA: 6.65 inches, West Union, IA: 4 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2006: Western Washington: An unusual heat wave in western Washington breaks five maximum temperature records: Vancouver at 104°F, Olympia at 100°F, Seattle at 97°F, and Hoquiam at 90°F. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2011:  at 4:50 PM Chicago bakes in first back-to-back 100-degree days in 16 years since deadly heat wave in July 1995 The mercury hit 101 degrees at Midway Airport at 4:40 pm Thursday afternoon marking the second straight day of triple-digit heat there. This was the city's first encounter with back- to-back 100-degree days in 16 years since the deadly heat wave of July 1995. Back then the mercury soared to 106 degrees on July 13 and was followed by a 102 degree high on July 14. The city's official site at O'Hare Airport has fallen just short of triple-digit heat for the second straight day. Today official high there was 99 degrees recorded at 1:58 pm. On Wednesday the 20th the city's official high at O'Hare international Airport was also 99 degrees. (Ref. WGN Chicago Weather Center - Tom Skilling)

[mikeysed]

Sussex county into the Hudson Valley seems to be the big hits in the first wave. Storms are moving northeast in a unified direction fairly tight. 

 

https://weather.com/weather/radar/interactive/l/fc41d839027a06b79c0a75586dd3720ebd5a5484e2fcbe05d3c372b35879fe97

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

The soon to be retired Nam. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

It might be NW of the city. East of the city looks like the split screw area based on short term modeling. 

The wind is already blasting onshore at jones beach, so we are going to have instability issues here.


.

[Picard]

Ripping up here as storms train through.  I've already blown past an inch and counting just in the last 20-25 minutes.  Frequent thunder and lightening.

[Snowlover11]

Man that’s some extremely heavy rain just to my west. Maybe some hail? DBZ thru the roof.

[Picard]

14 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Man that’s some extremely heavy rain just to my west. Maybe some hail? DBZ thru the roof.

Looks like a hell of a drive on the thruway, even if it only lasts a few minutes, that's some serious precip.

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

Some of the most intense rain that I have ever witnessed. Deafening. Oakland NJ.

[JonClaw]

8 minutes ago, BobbyHolikWillFindYou said:

Some of the most intense rain that I have ever witnessed. Deafening. Oakland NJ.

Absolutely nasty looking cell on radar. 65+ dbz.

[MANDA]

54 minutes ago, Picard said:

Ripping up here as storms train through.  I've already blown past an inch and counting just in the last 20-25 minutes.  Frequent thunder and lightening.

Same here.  Absolute deluge.  A few CTG streaks followed by very loud thunder.  Wind gusts modest at perhaps 30 mph briefly.

Will go get a measurement shortly.  Easily over 1".

[Picard]

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Same here.  Absolute deluge.  A few CTG streaks followed by very loud thunder.  Wind gusts modest at perhaps 30 mph briefly.

Will go get a measurement shortly.  Easily over 1".

Just measured here and have exactly 1.25" in both the electronic tipper and the plastic one.  The sun had come out but now clouds and darker skies have returned.  It looks like more spots are starting to develop to the SW again and we'll see if they bring anything.  I had a quivering, panting dog glued to me earlier so she is unhappy with this morning's weather.   We'ved tried music, calming chews, treats, and playing with her.  Nothing seems to help.  

As I finish typing, rain has started again here.

[Snowlover11]

Wow, that was impressive. Nice drink.

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The futurecast is essentially useless at 36-48 hours. It's akin to a 120-hour NAM run (NAM ends at 84 hours, just so one has context for my analogy). Not surprisingly, last night's figures were dramatically lowered and are now in line with the guidance.

https://pix11.com/news/local-news/projected-rainfall-totals-in-ny-nj-ahead-of-storms/

On channel 7 Lee Goldberg will often say that he disagrees with the futurecast. Or he'll do what he did yesterday which was show the HRRR futurecast because he didn't agree with the regular futurecast not showing the break during the afternoon like the HRRR did. 

[NEG NAO]

sun is breaking through now in north central NJ Temp : 85 Dewpoint 72 - solid line of precip approaching for later today from western PA - expect a severe watch to be issued within the next couple of hours for most of the Metro

[MANDA]

Received 1.72" from earlier storms.  Most of that fell in about 45 minutes.  It was absolute drench warfare.  

Looming severe threat later.