SnowGoose69 Posted yesterday at 02:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:36 PM 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: Seems like Upton is discounting the widespread regional flood threat for tomorrow and Wednesday. Thoughts ? AFD from KOKX Alot depends on how the whole thing evolves. If the late AM/early aftn wave is more significant the evening won't be as bad. Thats evident on most of the high res models too. HRRR has a stronger early wave, high res GFS/RRFS have mostly just a late one. Instability looks more impressive in the evening than the Saturday event and less in the early wave/warm front than Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted yesterday at 03:02 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:02 PM 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Could be one of only a few where August had more 90 degree days than July and only in 2021 (since 2010) has Jun / Aug had more 90 degree days than July. EWR at 6 currently Year July 90° Days August 90° Days Difference 2021 10 13 +3 2018 9 14 +5 2015 11 13 +2 Year June July August 2021 13 10 13 Yeah, the August average for the 2020s has been 10 days reaching 90°. We’ll have to see where the main ridge sets up and the what the wettest areas are. One of the warmest June 1st to July 16th periods along the East Coast. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 1 2 8 15 10 2 0 35 2026 2 4 8 6 M M M 20 2025 0 0 10 20 8 1 0 39 2024 0 1 11 14 7 0 0 33 2023 2 1 1 14 5 6 0 29 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41 2020 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted yesterday at 03:04 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:04 PM Had a low of 54. Refreshing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 12 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah July hasn't been bad other than that incredible heat wave to start the month. Pretty good that we're gonna end up with a near normal month despite that record early heat. I'm glad that we've gotten much more rain this month too. Kinda like last year but we got rain this year so far. Which is lucky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Top ten afternoon. So glad to have a day without eye stinging campfire, monsoon or 95+. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Top ten afternoon. So glad to have a day without eye stinging campfire, monsoon or 95+. Well said, it’s a gorgeous beach day. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Bottomed out at 59.7 here. Up to 78 now, beautiful day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 81 / 48 just a superb out day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago The latest HREF is showing the potential for 1.50"-3.00" of rain across the New York City Metro Area. If this holds through the 0z cycle, it wouldn't surprise me if flood watches are put in place for Tuesday into Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago 27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The latest HREF is showing the potential for 1.50"-3.00" of rain across the New York City Metro Area. If this holds through the 0z cycle, it wouldn't surprise me if flood watches are put in place for Tuesday into Wednesday. Models all over with regards to timing. Some have heavy rain tomorrow morning, tomorrow night or Wednesday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Models all over with regards to timing. Some have heavy rain tomorrow morning, tomorrow night or Wednesday The timing is still very uncertain. Hopefully, there will be greater clarity during the 18z and 0z runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago SPC extended enhanced risk to the NE, close to the metro area now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 231 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-176-178-211000- /O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0005.260721T1200Z-260722T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens- 231 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, including the following areas, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union and southeast New York, including the following areas, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern Queens, Richmond (Staten Island) and Southern Queens. * WHEN...From Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. Average rainfall totals will be between 1 and 2 inches, with isolated totals around 3 to 4 inches possible. Peak rainfall rates in the strongest storms could be near 2.5 inches per hour. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 5 hours ago, SACRUS said: Could be one of only a few where August had more 90 degree days than July and only in 2021 (since 2010) has Jun / Aug had more 90 degree days than July. EWR at 6 currently Year July 90° Days August 90° Days Difference 2021 10 13 +3 2018 9 14 +5 2015 11 13 +2 Year June July August 2021 13 10 13 Probably not. I think we've already seen the worst of the heat. Unlike those years, we've had heat early and often, with 80s as early as March, 90s as early as April, and 100+ earlier this month. I highly doubt we see more 90-degree days in August than in June or July. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 18Z HRRR not many changes, does move a bit to the RRFS/Hi RES GFS idea the first round 15-18Z may be mostly NYC north but the 22-02z period looks like a strong line of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Models all over with regards to timing. Some have heavy rain tomorrow morning, tomorrow night or Wednesday I see the 18z HRRR has a round for around midday, and then a long break for the afternoon before a big round for the early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 3 hours ago, cleetussnow said: Kinda like last year but we got rain this year so far. Which is lucky. Last year was a frontloaded warm summer, with the heat wave in late June and the warmth lasting all through July. The summer pretty much ended after July 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 19 hours ago Author Share Posted 19 hours ago 56 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I see the 18z HRRR has a round for around midday, and then a long break for the afternoon before a big round for the early evening. And nam is mostly Wednesday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago A cooler regime is in place and will remain in place for an extended period of time. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s and lower 80s through the week and into the start of the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow into Wednesday. Some areas could pick up heavy downpours with flooding a possibility. Daily rainfall records for July 21 include: Atlantic City: 4.60", 1969 Bridgeport: 2.16", 1961 Islip: 2.69", 1984 New York City-Central Park: 2.26", 1983 New York City-JFK Airport: 2.45", 1948 New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 2.06", 2006 Newark: 3.23", 2006 Philadelphia: 3.45", 1988 Wilmington, DE: 3.80"m, 1988 The long-term outlook for the remainder of July has swung to near normal or even somewhat cooler than normal on the guidance. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.82°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -21.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.825 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 64% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.8° (0.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago WPIX trying to increase their ratings or decrease them ? 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 17 hours ago Author Share Posted 17 hours ago 37 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: WPIX trying to increase their ratings or decrease them ? I think its time for Mr. G to hang it up 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 53 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: WPIX trying to increase their ratings or decrease them ? What model was the basis of this idea? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: What model was the basis of this idea? Mike Masco doesn't say but explains NYC weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
straphanger Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Lee Goldberg was showing an HRRR model output showing 2-4" rain totals for NE Jersey, Hudson Valley, and SE CT tomorrow with NYC at the southern end of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago A top ten day like today followed by a rain day? Hell……. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Today's Highs: TEB: 85 PHL: 85 EWR: 84 New Brnswck: 84 LGA: 83 TTN: 83 ACY: 82 NYC: 81 BLM: 79 JFK: 79 ISP: 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Why isn't tomorrow's storm generating more buzz on here? 3-6 inches of rain can be catastrophic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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