July 2026

[MANDA]

27 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Still a little bit of low level smoke, but skies are much clearer overall. It's great seeing the sun again!

HRRR brings some smoke back in later tonight with the sea breeze. Looks pretty clear by Sunday 

Yeah.  Main smoke plume is shifting southward today.  Actually fairly clear up here in NWNJ right now with only some haze to the south and clear blue skies to the NW.

[Brian5671]

Some models have very little rain tomorrow.   Doesn't look like an all day washout

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Some models have very little rain tomorrow.   Doesn't look like an all day washout

Rarely is. Probably a line of storms but who knows when. Evening I guess

[forkyfork]

looking forward to the soot rain tomorrow morning. i love climate change

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

NYC needs to pick up 2.77” by the end of July to have their first average to above precipitation month since May 2025.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=NYC&product=CLM&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026	2.70	2.60	3.60	2.48	3.05	3.39	1.83	M	M	M	M	M	19.65
2025	0.61	2.60	5.52	3.25	6.58	2.46	4.03	2.21	2.76	4.08	2.09	3.38	39.57
2024	5.28	2.05	9.06	3.47	4.11	1.71	4.20	7.02	1.58	0.01	3.35	4.53	46.37

I suppose we were due for this. Over the past 50 or 60 years precipitation has increased quite a bit. That 46 inches in 2024 would have been above normal some 50 years ago.

[IrishRob17]

Satellite shows the smoke has pushed south but it’s deceiving, still lots of lingering ground level smoke easily seen when outside. 

[rclab]

15 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

looking forward to the soot rain tomorrow morning. i love climate change

Forky please keep SPF 100 handy in case of unexpected clearing. As always …..

 

[SnowGoose69]

36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rarely is. Probably a line of storms but who knows when. Evening I guess

Double hits rarely occur but there is enough forcing tomorrow even with the 1st round early afternoon I like the chances of seeing a 2nd round later in the evening.  

[winterwx21]

49 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Double hits rarely occur but there is enough forcing tomorrow even with the 1st round early afternoon I like the chances of seeing a 2nd round later in the evening.  

I see HRRR and NAM3km actually have a morning round now too, hitting us very hard here around 10am. Then the afternoon round and another round later at night. Hard to believe we'll get hit by 3 rounds, but 2 rounds seems like a pretty good bet. We need more rain so I hope the models are right. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rarely is. Probably a line of storms but who knows when. Evening I guess

It'll be interesting to see if HRRR and NAM3km are correct about our area getting hit hard during the morning. I would think afternoon/evening is more likely, but we shall see. 

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see HRRR and NAM3km actually have a morning round now too, hitting us very hard here around 10am. Then the afternoon round and another round later at night. Hard to believe we'll get hit by 3 rounds, but 2 rounds seems like a pretty good bet. We need more rain so I hope the models are right. 

Those mini rounds 14-16z on the HRRR/RRFS could be disruptive to the 18z one if they happen.  Ideally you'd want that one to not happen so you don't have clouds in place or too much stability

[guinness77]

I’m in Babylon right now but the skies seem much bluer today than yesterday and the sun is actually present and normal. I’m heading to Queens now but the smell and feel in my chest is completely gone (for now). Don’t know if it’ll be worse in Jamaica. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

7 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

I’m in Babylon right now but the skies seem much bluer today than yesterday and the sun is actually present and normal. I’m heading to Queens now but the smell and feel in my chest is completely gone (for now). Don’t know if it’ll be worse in Jamaica. 

Yup 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, lee59 said:

I suppose we were due for this. Over the past 50 or 60 years precipitation has increased quite a bit. That 46 inches in 2024 would have been above normal some 50 years ago.

We began to dry out shortly after the super El Nino in 2023-2024 during the fall. The warmer climate requires more water than 50 years ago due to increased evaporation rates.

One of the areas that needs more research are these expanding 500mb ridges that get stuck in place for weeks to months. So we get regions with record drought under the ridges which are bounded by record flooding like we are currently seeing in Texas. 

The more erratic precipitation patterns are a real challenge for the agricultural and landscaping fields. Since long range precipitation forecasts beyond a week or two aren’t the greatest. Trying to figure out where your local area will end up between the wet and dry extremes isn’t the easiest to navigate.

[steve392]

Had blue skies at home today. No smell if smoke but still hazey.  Driving down turnpike you can almost see the cutoff from heavy smoke to light haze by Middlesex County area.  

[guinness77]

18 hours ago, guinness77 said:

I’m on west end of tracks 1 and 2 in Jamaica and the pics really aren’t doing it justice.  Obvious smoke in the air, an overt campfire smell, you can feel it in your chest. Lots of people masking up. It’s feeling pretty post-apocalyptic here. 

Same location about 19 hours later. Much bluer in the sky, a little haze with little humidity so it probably is a little smoke but no ill feeling in my chest and there’s a very distinct smell of a bit of smoke. But, much much better than yesterday early evening. 

[SACRUS]

87 here  much clearer  as smoke south

 

 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Those mini rounds 14-16z on the HRRR/RRFS could be disruptive to the 18z one if they happen.  Ideally you'd want that one to not happen so you don't have clouds in place or too much stability

Strong shear, lapse rates and high dews could counteract the lack of sun here especially with the fronts being nearby.  

[Stormlover74]

Flood watch issued for most..city on west 

[Stormlover74]

Enhanced severe risk as well

[TJW014]

Big time boom or bust potential tomorrow. It all hinges on how fast can we clear out after the warm front lifts through

[SACRUS]

[donsutherland1]

Showers and thundershowers are possible during the weekend. Some of the thunderstorms could bring flooding downpours and strong winds. The greatest risk is tomorrow night and Sunday. Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through the middle of next week.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.52°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -27.09 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.683 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.0° (0.5° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.