mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 03:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:36 PM 39 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I have my doubts that the aleutian/goa low will be as strong as modeled. Maybe this helps us with cold air. Maybe not, but it's off to a nice start on the 12 Gefs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=namer&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2026090912&fh=384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Wednesday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:53 PM 9 hours ago, dailylurker said: Not just snow one day and 70 the next day. Just like 16-17, a Niña. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Wednesday at 05:18 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:18 PM 15 hours ago, Terpeast said: I have my doubts that the aleutian/goa low will be as strong as modeled. Maybe this helps us with cold air. The latest CanSIPS has that feature getting stronger as winter progresses, but it also has it located far enough west for an EPO ridge. January and esp February look interesting, suggesting a -AO and -NAO as well. That combo would be a best case for cold to move southward into our nearby source region while mitigating PAC puke onslaught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Wednesday at 05:28 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:28 PM 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: The latest CanSIPS has that feature getting stronger as winter progresses, but it also has it located far enough west for an EPO ridge. January and esp February look interesting, suggesting a -AO and -NAO as well. That combo would he a best case for cold to move southward into our nearby source region while mitigating PAC puke onslaught. Yeah that looks really good, but we’ve seen a lot of great looks for Feb only for them to slip away at the last minute. Let’s see if this one holds given the strength of the nina and subsidence over the MC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Wednesday at 08:06 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:06 PM JB in a recent post shows data that the El Niño is leveling off below projections. Any comments from the experts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Wednesday at 08:40 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:40 PM 33 minutes ago, Weather Will said: JB in a recent post shows data that the El Niño is leveling off below projections. Any comments from the experts? Roundy and others have shown that’s temporary. Maybe it knocks a tenth or two of the eventual peak. Will still be a record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 08:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:49 PM 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Roundy and others have shown that’s temporary. Maybe it knocks a tenth or two of the eventual peak. Will still be a record. Yep, it's been on the Cfs2 plot for a couple weeks and you can see the reduction of red later this month on this 850 anomaly pic before the mother of all WWB of this Niño hits mid to late October. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Wednesday at 08:52 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:52 PM 47 minutes ago, Weather Will said: JB in a recent post shows data that the El Niño is leveling off below projections. Any comments from the experts? I’ve been following this closely. CFSv2 has dropped RONI peak from +3.5 to +3.0 over last month or so due to August pause. That’s just a pause though and notable 3.4 warming has finally resumed. But I don’t see it catching back up. Thus, I’m currently at +3.0 for my educated guess. The BoM is way up at +3.6 and will likely bust too high like it did in ‘23. However, its SST anomalies are based on a dataset that’s ~0.3 to 0.4 warmer than ERSST, which NOAA uses, and which just adds confusion. Keep in mind that 1+2 has recently been strong thus making it the most E based on record for early Sept. beating 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Wednesday at 09:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:32 PM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 10:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:10 PM 47 minutes ago, frd said: Except the 2 elephants in the room, 2/83 and 1/16, did make it up the coast, especially 2/83. Edit: Forgot 2/58 & 3/58. Up the coast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Wednesday at 10:55 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:55 PM 8 hours ago, mitchnick said: Except the 2 elephants in the room, 2/83 and 1/16, did make it up the coast, especially 2/83. Edit: Forgot 2/58 & 3/58. Up the coast as well. Also, -3/24/1983 Miller A Gulf coast major snowstorm that crossed over N FL and then offshore the SE -2/8-10/1973: historic Miller A deep Gulf snow storm that crossed C FL to well off SE coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 07:52 AM Share Posted yesterday at 07:52 AM 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted yesterday at 08:57 AM Share Posted yesterday at 08:57 AM 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't hate that map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted yesterday at 09:59 AM Share Posted yesterday at 09:59 AM September Copernicus (Euro related) DJF Monthly Temps & Precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 10 hours ago, mitchnick said: September Copernicus (Euro related) DJF Monthly Temps & Precip That looks pretty canonical Nino. Big banner Snow Season for the central and Southern Rockies. Possibly the Resorts of the Central and Southern Apps as well. Going to depend on how much cold can get involved in the latter Area's obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have a season pass to Snowshoe!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 10 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I have a season pass to Snowshoe!!! Pretty 97-98 like, only better. Models seem to be thinking heavy mountain snow, some snow/mix/rain events for the piedmont and mainly rain east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago On 9/9/2026 at 9:32 PM, frd said: "Nino's" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 15 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I have a season pass to Snowshoe!!! I've got a season pass on the Tug Hill. 300" or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 7 minutes ago Share Posted 7 minutes ago On 9/9/2026 at 9:32 PM, frd said: :vomit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now