Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[mitchnick]

39 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I have my doubts that the aleutian/goa low will be as strong as modeled. Maybe this helps us with cold air.

Maybe not, but it's off to a nice start on the 12 Gefs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2026090912&fh=384

[JenkinsJinkies]

9 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Not just snow one day and 70 the next day.

Just like 16-17, a Niña.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I have my doubts that the aleutian/goa low will be as strong as modeled. Maybe this helps us with cold air.

The latest CanSIPS has that feature getting stronger as winter progresses, but it also has it located far enough west for an EPO ridge. January and esp February look interesting, suggesting a -AO and -NAO as well. That combo would he a best case for cold to move southward into our nearby source region while mitigating PAC puke onslaught.

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The latest CanSIPS has that feature getting stronger as winter progresses, but it also has it located far enough west for an EPO ridge. January and esp February look interesting, suggesting a -AO and -NAO as well. That combo would he a best case for cold to move southward into our nearby source region while mitigating PAC puke onslaught.

Yeah that looks really good, but we’ve seen a lot of great looks for Feb only for them to slip away at the last minute. Let’s see if this one holds given the strength of the nina and subsidence over the MC.