forkyfork Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Idk it's got model and ensemble support and we're still a few days out. Ridges have only trended stronger as we got closer. In addition the overall dry environment would make higher temps more plausible. I think some 105+ readings are on the table. the euro has a cold 2m temp bias in winter but they never talk about that 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Great upton decrease the percentage from 70 to 30 and then only cloudy. Now showers and based on radar it seems it will be raining for a while in the city 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 2 hours ago, psv88 said: Selling 107 for Long Island all the way out to Suffolk. Come on now. 98-99 probably the peak here Seems similar to the heat last summer where we got close to 100. 850 temps look similar. Thing is the dry conditions might help add a couple degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boxingdayblizzard Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 90% of models were wrong with not showing the rain in north jersey today. Kinda a shame. Good thing have no wedding or event today… latest nam has over an inch…not sure about that but we’ll see.. in any case, very happy to be getting some rain. Just thought it was going to stay to our south. Proves why “now cast” is a thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 9 minutes ago, boxingdayblizzard said: 90% of models were wrong with not showing the rain in north jersey today. Kinda a shame. Good thing have no wedding or event today… latest nam has over an inch…not sure about that but we’ll see.. in any case, very happy to be getting some rain. Just thought it was going to stay to our south. Proves why “now cast” is a thing Yep, kind of sucks with the timing. Already have over 3 inches this week, so was hoping today would be dry. Radar looks robust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boxingdayblizzard Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 15 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Yep, kind of sucks with the timing. Already have over 3 inches this week, so was hoping today would be dry. Radar looks robust. Yes , I’m actually happy about it though because my area of north jersey missed out on the heaviest the past week. Just a bad job by all models though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 40 minutes ago, boxingdayblizzard said: 90% of models were wrong with not showing the rain in north jersey today. Kinda a shame. Good thing have no wedding or event today… latest nam has over an inch…not sure about that but we’ll see.. in any case, very happy to be getting some rain. Just thought it was going to stay to our south. Proves why “now cast” is a thing It's funny that for days the models showed the heavier rain missing to the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 EWR top temps last 8 years Year #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 2025 103° (Jun 24) 101° (Jun 23) 101° (Jun 25) 101° (Jul 29) 100° (Jul 8/25/30 tie) 2024 100° (Jun 21) 100° (Aug 1) 99° (Jun 23) 99° (Jul 16) 98° (Jun 26/Jul 15 tie) 2023 97° (Sep 6) 96° (Jul 27) 96° (Sep 7) 95° (Jul 12) 95° (Jul 28/Sep 5 tie) 2022 101° (Aug 9) 99° (Jul 1) 99° (Aug 8) 98° (May 31) 98° (Jul 12/Aug 4 tie) 2021 103° (Jun 30) 102° (Jun 29) 99° (Jun 28) 99° (Aug 13) 98° (Aug 12) 2020 96° (Jul 19) 96° (Jul 20) 95° (Jul 2) 95° (Jul 5) 94° (Jul 3) 2019 99° (Jul 21) 98° (Jul 20) 97° (Jul 19) 96° (Jul 5) 96° (Jul 22) 2018 98° (Jul 2) 97° (Aug 29) 96° (Aug 28) 95° (Jul 5) 95° (Jul 4) NYC Year #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 2025 99° (Jun 24) 97° (Jul 29) 96° (Jun 23) 96° (Jun 25) 95° (Jul 30 / Jul 25 tie) 2024 95° (Aug 1) 95° (Jun 21) 94° (Jul 16) 93° (Jun 22) 93° (Jul 15 tie) 2023 93° (Sep 7) 93° (Sep 6) 93° (Jul 5) 92° (Sep 5) 92° (Jul 28 tie) 2022 97° (Aug 9) 96° (Jul 24) 95° (Jul 20) 95° (Jul 21) 94° (Aug 4) 2021 98° (Jun 30) 97° (Jun 29) 95° (Aug 13) 94° (Aug 12) 93° (Jul 8) 2020 96° (Jul 6) 94° (Jul 19) 93° (Jul 28) 93° (Jul 27) 93° (Jul 20) 2019 95° (Jul 21) 95° (Jul 20) 93° (Oct 2) 93° (Jul 17) 92° (Jul 30) 2018 96° (Jul 1) 95° (Jul 2) 94° (Aug 28) 93° (Sep 6) 93° (Jul 10 / Jun 30 tie) LGA Year #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 2025 101° (Jun 24) 100° (Jul 29) 99° (Jul 30) 99° (Jul 25) 99° (Jun 25) 2024 97° (Jul 16) 97° (Jul 15) 97° (Jun 21) 96° (Jul 31) 95° (Aug 1) 2023 96° (Sep 7) 95° (Jul 27) 94° (Jul 28) 94° (Jul 5) 93° (Sep 6) 2022 98° (Aug 9) 98° (Jul 24) 97° (Jul 23) 97° (Jul 21) 97° (Jul 20) 2021 100° (Jun 30) 98° (Aug 13) 98° (Aug 12) 98° (Jun 29) 96° (Jul 7) 2020 97° (Jul 28) 97° (Jul 27) 97° (Jul 20) 97° (Jul 19) 96° (Jul 30) 2019 100° (Jul 21) 99° (Jul 20) 95° (Oct 2) 95° (Jul 30) 95° (Jul 19) 2018 98° (Aug 28) 97° (Aug 29) 97° (Jul 10) 97° (Jul 1) 96° (Sep 6) JFK: Year #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 2025 102° (Jun 25) 102° (Jun 24) 96° (Jul 29) 95° (Jul 30) 93° (Jul 28) 2024 95° (Aug 28) 93° (Aug 1) 91° (Aug 2) 91° (Jul 31) 91° (Jun 25) 2023 93° (Sep 6) 93° (Sep 5) 92° (Sep 7) 92° (Jul 27) 91° (Jul 28) 2022 96° (Jul 24) 96° (Jul 23) 95° (Jul 22) 95° (Jul 20) 94° (Jul 19) 2021 94° (May 22) 93° (Aug 27) 92° (May 23) 91° (Aug 24) 91° (Aug 14) 2020 97° (Jul 20) 94° (Jul 27) 93° (Jul 28) 93° (Jul 26) 92° (Aug 27) 2019 99° (Jul 21) 99° (Jul 20) 95° (Oct 2) 93° (Jul 14) 91° (Jun 27) 2018 94° (Jul 1) 93° (Sep 4) 92° (Aug 30) 92° (Aug 29) 91° (Jul 2) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Good rains in this part of southwest Morris; hopefully cushions the impacts from the coming torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 just some light sprinkles and light rain here-nothing of consquence-back edge moving thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 i know the euro came in hot because nobody is posting it 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 A warming trend will commence tomorrow. June will conclude with above normal temperatures. The guidance is increasingly suggesting the potential for extreme heat to open July. Some of the guidance suggests that the heat could rival that of early July 1966. Much of the region will likely experience its highest temperatures so far this summer. Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC will all likely see the temperatures peak at or above 100°. Washington, DC could make a run at its all-time record of 106°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -19.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.016 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.3 (1.3° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 24 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i know the euro came in hot because nobody is posting it Check the July thread 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said: Check the July thread July 4th thread. Its numbers are unreal for NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Approaching 1/2" of rain today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: July 4th thread. Its numbers are unreal for NYC. 4 straight days over 100 in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 At a backyard hibachi party. Little wet out but no more rain. Please no more rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Actually looks like I might be catching a break being in Chicago. The ridge has been trending east over time and looks like mid 90s there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: July 4th thread. Its numbers are unreal for NYC. My screen got hot just looking at the maps, .13" today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 8 hours ago, psv88 said: Selling 107 for Long Island all the way out to Suffolk. Come on now. 98-99 probably the peak here You're not escaping this without a 100 degree temp in your area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 3 hours ago, ForestHillWx said: Good rains in this part of southwest Morris; hopefully cushions the impacts from the coming torch. Same here. Periods of rain all day from late morning until about 5:30. Over now (6:00 p.m.) Will check the total in the morning but rain all day today was not on my bingo card. It was fairly obvious through by looking at the radar this morning that a wet day was incoming across NNJ. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: 4 straight days over 100 in NYC. It's probably overdone, but Central Park might make a run for 100 on at least one day. I think ISP, JFK, LGA, EWR will probably have one or more such days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 39 minutes ago, Rjay said: You're not escaping this without a 100 degree temp in your area. It's been dry so we probably add a couple degrees vs the heat last summer, plus we're in the same WNW flow regime that heats it up all the way to the shore and we add downslope help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: It's probably overdone, but Central Park might make a run for 100 on at least one day. I think ISP, JFK, LGA, EWR will probably have one or more such days. We know that Central Park likely maxes out at 98-99 under the forest canopy but LGA, EWR maybe even JFK if they keep westerly flow make it to 100. Ridge has also been trending east which is increasing the 850 temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 0.04" today... 1.81" for month. Bring on the heat, go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 We know that Central Park likely maxes out at 98-99 under the forest canopy but LGA, EWR maybe even JFK if they keep westerly flow make it to 100. Ridge has also been trending east which is increasing the 850 temps.It’s going to take EWR making a run at 110 for cpk to hit 100. Thursday looks like a solid JFK 100 plus day with a west wind until late afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 .06 today 2 day total of .10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Today's highs and outside another all day rainout this will be the coolest day of the next 7-10 -14 ISP: 80 EWR: 80 JFK: 79 BLM: 79 ACY: 79 New Brnswck: 79 TEB: 79 NYC: 78 LGA: 78 PHL: 77 TTN: 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Pretty rare to see nws point and click forecasts of 102-104° forecasted 4-6 days out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s going to take EWR making a run at 110 for cpk to hit 100. Thursday looks like a solid JFK 100 plus day with a west wind until late afternoon . On those days the south shore can be the hottest in the whole area because of compressional heating. Around the Southern State and Hempstead/Garden City are usually the hot spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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